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Roger J Smith

September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

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15.1 to the 7th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 15.1 to the 7th

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Sunny Sheffield down to 15C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall still at 4.7mm 7.2% of the monthly average total.

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Too early to say a below average for month. However this is a notable cool spell for early September

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.6C -1.1C below normal, Rainfall up to 8.2mm 12.5% of the monthly average.

 

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14.7c here to the 8th, 0.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

Rainfall: 9.8mm

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Warmest September was 2006 at 16.6c or 16.8c

1986 was the coldest 11.3c since 1952 thanks to very cold nights and unusually early sharp frosts.

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14.9 to the 8th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.9 to the 8th

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Still too early to say how the CET will hold up but the Euro this morning for example would be well on the way. GFS however would deliver much higher minima. 

At any rate, i'm happy with my average prediction.

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15.1 to the 9th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.9 to the 8th

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No change sunny Sheffield temp wise or rainfall wise.

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15.1 to the 10th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.9 to the 8th

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14.7c here still to the 10th, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

 

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Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 14.6C rainfall now 8.8mm 13.5% of the monthly average.

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

15.1C to the 11th... +0.1  (15.9: +1.1)
15.1C to the 12th... +0.1  (14.1: -0.3)
14.8C to the 13th... +0.0  (12.4: -1.5)
14.7C to the 14th... -0.1  (12.3: -1.4)
14.6C to the 15th... -0.1  (14.3: +0.7)
14.7C to the 16th... +0.0  (15.3: +1.6)
14.7C to the 17th... +0.1  (14.4: +0.6)
14.9C to the 18th... +0.3  (18.5: +4.6)
15.0C to the 19th... +0.5  (17.7: +4.1)
15.0C to the 20th... +0.5  (15.4: +1.4)

Gradual decline towards the weekend after which the CET may begin to climb once more, with some very warm conditions for the time of year forecast for early next week.

Sep11.thumb.JPG.8497d35a042656349f62b1edd3c3c47b.JPG  Sep11MM.thumb.JPG.86dc16e6e871132c724ca154dba18017.JPG

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15.2 to the 11th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.9 to the 8th

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Sunny Sheffield still at 14.6C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 11.3mm 17.3% of the monthly rainfall.

Edited by The PIT

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15.0 to the 12th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.9 to the 8th

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Another drop tomorrow on the cards...some very cold temps around last night, 3cs and 4cs recorded in quite a few places.

Edited by snowray

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14.5c here to the 12th, bang on the 1981-2010 average.

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Sunny Sheffield at 14.5C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

Hurricane Helena should provide a huge bump upwards as it brings very hos day and a night time with the low the just above the normal day max here.

 

Edited by The PIT

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A very average first half to September then, but a marked warm up is on the cards, so wouldn't be surprised to be in the high 15s by this time next week, thereafter we might see a return of chilly nights. Difficult to call just how things might pan out eventually.

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14.8 to the 13th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.8 to the 13th

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

14.7C to the 14th... -0.1 (13.7: +0.0)
14.7C to the 15th... -0.1 (13.8: +0.2)
14.8C to the 16th... +0.1 (16.1 +2.4)
14.8C to the 17th... +0.2 (15.1 +1.3)
15.0C to the 18th... +0.4 (17.9 +4.0)
15.2C to the 19th... +0.7 (19.5 +5.9) 
15.3C to the 20th... +0.8 (18.1 +4.1) [Daily Mean Record High = 18.4C from 1947]
15.3C to the 21st... +0.8 (13.9 +0.2)
15.2C to the 22nd... +0.8 (14.8 +1.0)
15.3C to the 23rd... +0.9 (16.7 +3.2)

Back to a warm phase of the month now, with some daily records coming under threat, mainly thanks to some exceptional minima (current forecast suggests a minimum of 16.8C for the 20th!)
At this stage, a range of average up to well above average (~2.0C above 81-10 mean) appears most likely before corrections. so that's about 14.0C to 16.0C.

Aug14.thumb.JPG.84d46b14b45424cf2ee25fbcdba43cef.JPG  Aug14MM.thumb.JPG.d604ab6db253364c94bebce3c6756c32.JPG

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Sunny Sheffield down to 14.3 -1.0C below normal Rainfall unchanged.

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