September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

[Roger J Smith]

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max ______ min (records 1772-2017)

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) 

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) 

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 ___ 18.8 (1947,2016) _ 7.9 (1986)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807)

19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824)

29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808)

 

 

[Man With Beard]

This month looks like being a complete wildcard, judging by the changes in the models for the past 36 hours. Anything except extremely above average looks in the game - anything from 15.5C (if we're really lucky) to 13C if Northern blocking sets in to our north. 

[Duncan McAlister]

14.7°C for me please.

[Summer Sun]

16.2 to the 1st

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

[Methuselah]

On 27/08/2018 at 09:29, Ed Stone said:

16.3 and 17mm please...

I'll adjust that down to 15.3 and take a penalty, please...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

On 01/09/2018 at 18:51, Roger J Smith said:

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max ______ min (records 1772-2017)

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) 

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) 

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 ___ 18.8 (1947,2016) _ 7.9 (1986)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807)

19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824)

29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808)

 

 

It’s interesting that all the minimum records have occurred in the distant past.

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 2nd

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

19.6c here to the 2nd, 4.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

[Roger J Smith]

If you have entered EWP contests before and forgot this time, get an EWP forecast in before 0300h (that contest has a three hour grace period per day).

The late penalties are not severe, 0.6 points off your score out of 10. 

 

I will post complete tables of entries (including the 2d late adjustment by EdStone) at 0305h. Have them more or less ready to go so no extra work to get a few more numbers in the EWP table. No August EWP data on line yet, those scores may appear tomorrow. 

[Singularity]

On 01/09/2018 at 19:38, Man With Beard said:

This month looks like being a complete wildcard, judging by the changes in the models for the past 36 hours. Anything except extremely above average looks in the game - anything from 15.5C (if we're really lucky) to 13C if Northern blocking sets in to our north. 

After such a diabolical August in terms of CET behaviour (warmest summer on record for England, but not for the northwest-biased CET!), this situation has left me reeling - but only in a comically melodramatic 'woe est me' sort of way because let's face it, chance is a major player in this game no matter how skilled you are.

[Roger J Smith]

Tables of entries here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9

Consensus remains 14.9 C (almost 1 deg above recent 30-year normals) and 50.0 mm (about two-thirds of normal).

 

[Roger J Smith]

Friday and Saturday look very cool on current model runs, perhaps near record lows, but there are other days later that look fairly warm, overall would expect mid-month CET to be close to 14 C. 

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 3rd

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 16.2 to the 1st

[Man With Beard]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Friday and Saturday look very cool on current model runs, perhaps near record lows, but there are other days later that look fairly warm, overall would expect mid-month CET to be close to 14 C. 

Doesn't bode well for above average CET guesses! 

However the longer the month goes on, the better for the CET the westerly becomes. 

[summer blizzard]

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Doesn't bode well for above average CET guesses! 

However the longer the month goes on, the better for the CET the westerly becomes. 

Most westerly September's and Octobers are cool, its November onwars that they become mild.

That's probably due to Europe still being warm until at least late October.

[Summer Sun]

16.7 to the 4th

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 16.2 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

16.2C to the 5th... 1.0 (14.0: -1.2)
15.7C to the 6th... 0.6 (13.4: -1.7)
15.2C to the 7th... 0.1 (12.2: -2.8)
15.0C to the 8th... -0.1 (13.5: -1.5)
15.0C to the 9th... -0.1 (14.8: +0.1)
14.9C to the 10th... -0.1 (14.3: -0.4)
15.1C to the 11th... 0.1 (17.4: +2.6)
15.1C to the 12th... 0.1 (14.2: -0.2)
14.8C to the 13th... 0.0 (12.2: -1.7)
14.7C to the 14th... -0.1 (13.3: -0.4)

A sharp drop to come over the next few days before stabilising around the 81-10 rolling average.

  

[NorthYorksWeather]

17.7c here to the 4th, 3.0c above the 1981-2010.

As stated above Im expecting some sharp drops in the next few days.

[Summer Sun]

16.3 to the 5th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 16.2 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not much change in the outlook according to today's 06z... but the 15th comes along then and sets a new daily record! The record for the 15th is slightly low hanging fruit, at 18.8C. You have to go back to May 26th to find a cooler record warm day, at 18.7C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.3C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 1.5mm 2.3% of monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.7 to the 6th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 15.7 to the 6th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.7C -0.1C below average. Rainfall 4.7mm 7.2% of average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

15.1C to the 7th... +0.0 (11.8: -3.2)
14.9C to the 8th... -0.3 (13.1: -1.9)
15.0C to the 9th... -0.1 (16.3: +1.6)
14.9C to the 10th... -0.1 (14.0: -0.7)
15.0C to the 11th... +0.0 (16.4: +1.6)
15.2C to the 12th... +0.2 (17.0: +2.6)
15.0C to the 13th... +0.1 (12.4: -1.5)
14.9C to the 14th... +0.1 (13.4: -0.3)
14.8C to the 15th... +0.0 (13.1: -0.5)
14.6C to the 16th... -0.1 (12.3: -1.4)

The CET is dropping sharply at the moment,  but looks like stabilising somewhere near average after the weekend. The long term outlook (low res GFS) keeps things slightly below average, with the CET dropping below 14C as we approach the final week of the month.

  

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.5c here to the 6th, 0.8c above the 1981-2010 average.