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September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest


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Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    15.1 and 60mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
    16 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

    11.8. 

    The long run of above average months has to end sometime. After the warm week coming it'll go rather wintery and chilly

    If you are right coldest September since 86 would certainly be a shocker !!

    Edited by Badgers01
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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    14.5C and 50 mms please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    14.2C and 53mms please.

    Coolish nights and sunny start, more changeable later.

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Not looking like the perfect September for me, as it's looking like a warm and dry month with an extension of summer.  However, cool nights later in the month are likely to prevent it from being up there with the likes of 2006 and 2016.  

    I will go for 15.2C and 40mm, please.

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    13.5 and 22mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    15.0c for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    15.1*C and 49 mm, please.

    Confidence: Abysmal ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Here is a summary of forecasts to the on-time deadline, using forecaster initials or three-letter codes ... a more complete table of entries will be posted on the 4th of September over in the competition scoring thread. 

    CET forecasts (*C) (number in brackets is order of entry)

    19.0 LG (2), 17.0 Leo (6), 16.5 Syed (23), 16.3 EdS (25), 

    16.0 OP (32), all wx (46) .. 15.8 IRA252 (28), 15.7 KM (41), 15.6 GBR12 (11), BFTP (26), Ste (30)

    15.5 CPS (8), BFTV (34), 15.4 vir (27), 15.3 dam (29), MB (35), 15.2 sray (31), Don (48), 15.1 DWW (20), jon (38), Sing (55), J10 (56)

    15.0 MMan (3), Pit (33), sdog (51) .. 14.9 PG (7), Bobd29 (9), JeffC (12), Cap (16), Reef (54), consensus

    14.8 RD (1), Star (14), Dami (17), MWB (44), 14.7 SS (50), 14.6 Owl (22), Bad (24), DS (52)

    14.5 DrS (19), Nor (40), 14.4 RJS (43), SF (53) .. 14.3 LIS (10)

    14.2 Mul (45), MIA (47) 14.1 avg 1988-2017, 14.0 avg 1981-2010 and SB (5), dave (56)

    13.9 wx26 (4), 13.8  Kirk (13), cold (18), dan* (36), w-h (39)

    13.6 PSL (44), 13.5 Godb (49), 13.4 AlJ9 (15), 13.1 viz (21),

    13.0 metal (42), 11.8 38*5C (37)

    EWP forecasts (mm) (order of entry not a factor for scoring)

    200 LG .. 156 Ste .. 128 wx26 .. 95 Al J9 .. 87 Bobd29 .. 85.5 PG .. 75.5 DrS,

    74.7 (1988-2017) .. 74 JeffC .. 71.1 (1981-2010), 71 RD ... 67 Star ...

    66 GBR12 .. 65 J10 ... 64 CPS .. 62 LIS

    60 jon ... 53 MIA ...52 Cap, vir .. 50 Dami, Pit, Nor (and consensus)

    49.5 RJS .. 49 Sing .. 47.6 Kirk .. 46.2 MMan^^ ... 46 SF ...

    45 Reef, dave.. 44 viz .. 40 syed, w-h, Mul, Don .. 38 BFTV

    30 all wx, DS .. 22 Godb .. 17 EdS .. 12 BFTP

    _____________________________________________________

     

    consensus from 56 temp forecasts 14.9 C and from 40 precip forecasts 50.0 mm. 

    >>> a warm, dry month expected by our contest entrants, generally speaking.

     

    Entries are still accepted until end of day Monday, 3 September. 

     

    ^^ based on 65% of normal as stated, applied to 1981-2010. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    I'll go for 13.0C and 60mm, thanks.

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