September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.2C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 99mm 151.4% above average.

[The PIT]

If the GFS is right it looks like we will clock a close to average month coming in just slightly above belief it or not. Really depends on how much of a warm up we get midweek.

[Summer Sun]

14.7 to the 22nd

0.8 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

If the GFS is right it looks like we will clock a close to average month coming in just slightly above belief it or not. Really depends on how much of a warm up we get midweek.

I think a lot depends on the orientation of the High Pressure later this week, if it stays out to our west it will keep the nights on the chilly side which will make a big difference.

14.1c here to the 22nd, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

Expecting it to drop below average by Tuesday, however raising slightly later in the week, overall its very likely it will be close to average.

[Summer Sun]

14.6 to the 23rd

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th & 23rd

[cheeky_monkey]

Edmonton down to 6.2c after another cold week and more snow at the weekend...now tracking -5.4c below normal

[Roger J Smith]

Now that w-h has kindly supplied me with the link to ongoing daily EWP data, we can augment the daily updates on CET with occasional updates on the EWP. I will only update after a significant change, so in a dry spell you may not see daily updates. Also, I will be comparing the reported Hadley series against the NCIC normals, as the Hadley normal shown in the link is for 1961-90 and the contest uses 1981-2010 (and 1988-2017). One thing I need to update in my scoring is the Hadley normals, I have been scoring NCIC normals in that second (alternate) scoring report. If you haven't looked in over in the contest scoring thread, I score the EWP forecasts by both NCIC and Hadley actual values, and most months it seems that Hadley comes in a few mm higher than NCIC (not always the case). So the Hadley normals that I should be scoring are probably slightly higher, it may make the scores a bit different, but it won't affect the contest otherwise. 

So having said all that, the current Hadley total for September (through 22 days) is 64 mm. That is roughly 90% of the NCIC normal for 1981-2010. As there was some rain on the 23rd not yet in that total, can assume we are perhaps around 68 mm and nearly 95% of the NCIC normal for 1981-2010. And since NCIC reported values are usually a bit lower, then we can assume maybe 85% of the same normal value has fallen as of 22nd and closer to 90% now. In all cases, these amounts are a little above normal for the period 1-22 or 1-23 September. But it's looking rather dry to end of month so additional rainfall may leave us quite close to 100% of NCIC normals and possibly a few percent lower than normal for the Hadley normal for 1981-2010. Will get those Hadley "normals" calculated and make changes to the two normal values scoring for Hadley in this month's scoring report. I will also provide a table of these normal values for both series so you can see what if any differences there may be. That will appear in the contest thread rather than here. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

14.4C to the 24th... +0.0 (9.8: -3.0)
14.2C to the 25th... +0.0 (10.7: -2.0)
14.2C to the 26th... +0.0 (14.0: +1.2)
14.2C to the 27th... +0.1 (15.2: +2.3)
14.2C to the 28th... +0.1 (12.1: -1.1)
14.1C to the 29th... +0.0 (11.9: -1.2)
14.0C to the 30th... -0.1 (10.0: -2.8)

Touch and go as to whether we are below the 81-10 average by the end of the month, but odds are now in favour of being below after corrections at least.

   

[Roger J Smith]

I'll post a detailed report on the comparison of NCIC and Hadley EWP averages for 1981-2010 and 1988-2017 in the contest scoring thread.

The main analysis (having just input the data and compared them) is:

Hadley generally 1 to 4 per cent higher than NCIC most years, the range for months is larger, can be over 10% wetter in a few cases, or 5% drier. Hadley was marginally drier in 2004, 2006 and 2011 overall than NCIC. I also noticed that NCIC had amended their posted Jan to June 2017 amounts, since I first put in their data and calculated averages. The differences created are so small that I won't bother to rescore them. The Hadley "normals" are mostly a little higher than NCIC but not always. At the moment Feb 1988-2017 is 0.2% lower. The biggest differential was April 1981-2010, which was 5% higher than NCIC. 

Will be posting that detailed comparison later today, heading out now for the daytime hours. 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

13.8c here to the 23rd, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 14C -0.4C below normal. So looking like an average month coming up. Rainfall unchanged but massively over average.

[damianslaw]

A very average September now looks on the cards - feels about right, a bit of warmth at times, and a bit of chilliness, but overall preety normal.

[Summer Sun]

14.4 to the 24th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.4 to the 24th

[Man With Beard]

Really odd to be looking at a below average month when 25C has been reached or exceeded on 7 days! Night-time lows must have been the killer?

[jonboy]

24 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Really odd to be looking at a below average month when 25C has been reached or exceeded on 7 days! Night-time lows must have been the killer?

Yet for many of the months that were above average it was the night time highs that ensure the high values. lets see if we have shifted pattern where the night time temps are low thus ensuring below average temps

[NorthYorksWeather]

13.6c here to the 24th, 0.2c below the 1981-2010 average.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.9C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking at the latest GFS suggests we may come in 13.3C. So an average to below average month by the looks of it. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.7C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 99mm 151.4% of normal.

[Summer Sun]

*No update yesterday*

14.2 to the 26th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.2 to the 26th

[karyo]

This September has turned out a lot better (cooler) than expected. This gives me hope for the winter ahead.

Wasn't Sept 2017 about average temperature wise?

[Sunny76]

56 minutes ago, karyo said:

This September has turned out a lot better (cooler) than expected. This gives me hope for the winter ahead.

Wasn't Sept 2017 about average temperature wise?

Yes, September 2017 was mixed, but I remember a mostly unsettled cloudy and cool feel to things. Last autumn was chilly, and early winter apart from some mildness in mid December. 

[Snowyowl9]

October was warm last year.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking like an average month coming up with us landing at 13.6C

[reef]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking like an average month coming up with us landing at 13.6C

A very different month here just 60 miles away. Figures to the 27th based on rolling 1981-2010 averages:

Mean: 14.8C (+0.5C)
Rainfall: 40.4mm (77%)
Sunshine: 138hrs (105%)

[Summer Sun]

14.3 to the 27th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.2 to the 26th