Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
8 hours ago, snowray said:

Thats incredible only up by 0.1c, was expecting at least a 0.2c rise after yesterdays warmth.

The NW station keeping a lid on things, as it often does.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

15.0C to the 18th... +0.5 (17.8: +3.9)
15.1C to the 19th... +0.6 (16.9: +3.3)
15.1C to the 20th... +0.6 (13.4: -0.6)
14.8C to the 21st... +0.4 (10.7: -3.0)
14.7C to the 22nd... +0.3 (12.2: -1.6)
14.6C to the 23rd... +0.3 (12.9: -0.6)
14.4C to the 24th... +0.1 (8.6: -4.2)
14.2C to the 25th... +0.0 (10.1: -2.6)
14.1C to the 26th... -0.1 (10.9: -1.9)
14.0C to the 27th... -0.1 (11.6: -1.3)

Even though we don't manage a 4 day period below 10C, we still have a a proper cool spell coming up, with a chance of dipping into the 10 coldest days for the 24th (<8.8C required). That's still a long way off the overall record of 6.7C set in 1871. Speaking of 1871, the week ending the 25th averaged a cool 7.9C:cold:. We haven't had a single September day that cool since 1988!

Sep17.thumb.JPG.d695e27e7c1835edddfd70d22a20f9ae.JPG   Sep17MM.thumb.JPG.e8ac916e2a0598b214b4dfc6cdb2ef0c.JPG

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Double posted: Glitch somewhere!

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
32 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The NW station keeping a lid on things, as it often does.

Yes I expect your right there, slight rises likely in the next couple of days then down we go. Pity, I really did think that we could finish above 15c but the cold has certainly upgraded now, the weekend will likely see some of the first frosts of the season turning up.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models going for a general cool down from Friday, marked in the north, courtesy of colder uppers from the north - next week up in the air, if heights build in from the east and over the UK, we could see some very chilly minima and under what won't be especially warm uppers, maxima will probably only hit average figures, given the sun is weakening now.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Can't speak for the south but GFS is actually cold here fri-tues with average maxima of 12c and average minima of 7c.

That one crept up on us quietly.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.1 to the 18th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 14.6C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall up to 24.3mm 37.2% of the monthly average. Should be above average by tomorrow and then it should fall away if the GFS is correct as shows some very cold nights in the pipeline and some cold days. All could change by the enxt few runs though. So a good chance of getting a below average month here.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
48 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 14.6C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall up to 24.3mm 37.2% of the monthly average. Should be above average by tomorrow and then it should fall away if the GFS is correct as shows some very cold nights in the pipeline and some cold days. All could change by the next few runs though. So a good chance of getting a below average month here.

As to the rainfall, that's with 60% of the month in the books, so that 37.2% equates to 62% of normal for the period (perhaps a bit less as daily rainfall averages are likely slowly increasing this month). Let's say about 60% of normal anyway. But that's one location, I suspect the national EWP average might be running close to normal, I know it is in the ROI. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.2 to the 19th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield on 14.7C bang on average. Rainfall 25.2mm 38.5% of average and certainly will be above average by tomorrow by some way as well.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.1 to the 20th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

If the last ten days average 10 C then the outcome before adjustment is 13.4 C ... this was the fifth coolest forecast we received (AlexisJ9) and only these four were colder (13.1 from vizzy2004, two at 13.0 - metaltron and Relativistic, and one at 11.8 from 38*5C). Godber.1 at 13.5 C and Prolongedsnowlover (13.6 C) are also close to that estimate. 

I am guessing after yesterday's widespread deluge, EWP will likely come in a bit above average now, although after Sunday's top up it looks quite dry to end the month -- once again AlexisJ9 at 95 mm looks well placed and only three forecasts were (considerably) wetter -- weather26 at 128 mm and two at 156, 200 mm -- while Bobd29 (87.5 mm) and Polar Gael (85.5 mm)  are also in the running with Dr(S)No the only other above-recent-normal at 75.5 mm. JeffC at 74 mm is between the two recent normal values (1988-2017 is 74.7 and 1981-2010 is 71.1 mm). 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Gavin is forecasting a CET of 13.7C so below the 1981-2010 average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quite a cooldown on the cards, Sunday will bring a notably cool CET value, with well below average maxima followed by low mins as cold air digs in from the north. A decent shot we might come in below 14 degrees.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin is forecasting a CET of 13.7C so below the 1981-2010 average.

That's not a forecast from Gavin, he is repeating the forecast from someone else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Looking at the mean for last ten days of September (21st to 30th), the last time this failed to break 10.0 was in 1974 (9.4 C).

The two coldest since then were 10.7 in 1993 and 10.8 in 2012.

The coldest (and all sub-10) were:

RANK __ YEAR ___ mean

_ 01 ____ 1786 ___ 9.07

_ 02 ____1877 ___ 9.24

_ 03 ____ 1974 ___ 9.41

_ 04 ____ 1919 ___ 9.43

_ 05 ____ 1928 ___ 9.45

_t 06 ____1793 ___ 9.49

_t 06 ____1889 ___ 9.49

_ 08 ____ 1871 ___ 9.52

_ 09 ____ 1932 ___ 9.64

_ 10 ____ 1885 ___ 9.66

_ 11 ____ 1872 ___ 9.69

_ t12 ____1803 ___ 9.80

_ t12 ____1863 ___ 9.80

_ 14 ____ 1829 ___ 9.84

_ 15 ____ 1792 ___ 9.85

_t16 ____ 1808 ___10.00

_t16 ____ 1899 ___10.00

We'll see if 2018 can make this list. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

If the last ten days average 10 C then the outcome before adjustment is 13.4 C ... this was the fifth coolest forecast we received (AlexisJ9) and only these four were colder (13.1 from vizzy2004, two at 13.0 - metaltron and Relativistic, and one at 11.8 from 38*5C). Godber.1 at 13.5 C and Prolongedsnowlover (13.6 C) are also close to that estimate. 

I am guessing after yesterday's widespread deluge, EWP will likely come in a bit above average now, although after Sunday's top up it looks quite dry to end the month -- once again AlexisJ9 at 95 mm looks well placed and only three forecasts were (considerably) wetter -- weather26 at 128 mm and two at 156, 200 mm -- while Bobd29 (87.5 mm) and Polar Gael (85.5 mm)  are also in the running with Dr(S)No the only other above-recent-normal at 75.5 mm. JeffC at 74 mm is between the two recent normal values (1988-2017 is 74.7 and 1981-2010 is 71.1 mm). 

Figures to the 20th September are 51mm, so not as wet as you think and that includes 21mm for the 20th. 

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.9 to the 21st

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.4C -0.2C below normal.Rainfall 98.8mm 151.1% of average rainfall.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
20 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Figures to the 20th September are 51mm, so not as wet as you think and that includes 21mm for the 20th. 

Could you give me a link to that information? I know where to find the end-of-month totals but not these running estimates. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
On ‎21‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 20:19, summer blizzard said:

Gavin is forecasting a CET of 13.7C so below the 1981-2010 average.

That would be bang on average for the 1971-00.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...