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September 2018 Weather


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I was just saying earlier on the Summer thread how some years ago I heard the same theory and that based on this I want Summer like conditions to be completely behind us once September starts. As you say though September 2009 was still followed by a cold Winter and more recently September 2015 was the coolest September in central England since 1986 yet it was followed by a very mild Winter. So maybe what it's like here in September doesn't necessarily make or break what the following Winter will be like. There might not be any connection at all even and any trend is perhaps purely coincidental?

You mention September 2015, look at the two previous two Septembers

2013: 13.7C --------> winter CET: 6.1C

2014: 15.1C --------> winter CET: 4.5C

2015 :12.6C --------> winter CET: 6.7C

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I was just saying earlier on the Summer thread how some years ago I heard the same theory and that based on this I want Summer like conditions to be completely behind us once September starts. As you say though September 2009 was still followed by a cold Winter and more recently September 2015 was the coolest September in central England since 1986 yet it was followed by a very mild Winter. So maybe what it's like here in September doesn't necessarily make or break what the following Winter will be like. There might not be any connection at all even and any trend is perhaps purely coincidental?

The theory (better coined as hypothesis though) is behind unsettled Septembers, not necessarily cool ones (2010 was unsettled but fairly mild for instance). For the most part, September 2015 was settled in spite of being cool. I think it's coincidence. You'll find lots of exceptions.

1986 was very cool but also dry and was followed by a mixed Winter including a freezing January but December was very wet and mild.

Edited by BruenSryan
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

You mention September 2015, look at the two previous two Septembers

2013: 13.7C --------> winter CET: 6.1C

2014: 15.1C --------> winter CET: 4.5C

2015 :12.6C --------> winter CET: 6.7C

 

There goes that idea then. I suppose its a bit like assuming a warm March would lead to a good Summer or a cold March a cool one.  The cold weather in March this year certainly didn't stop us from having  a good Summer, or in 2013 either. Contrast then with a year before in 2012, when March was almost Summer like but the actual Summer that year was perhaps the worst in years. 

BruenSyran has corrected me that the hypothesis is for unsettled rather than cool September's anyway. But that anomaly could also only be coincidental. It's probably not really worth me getting concerned with how the weather during a certain month might predict the weather of a season that starts 3 months later anyway.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
On ‎18‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 12:53, Sunny76 said:

A very mild winter followed the summer of 2006, which had a poor August, but a warm September and October.

That was indeed a shocking winter with many violent storms 1 very severe,only February gave any relief with a short sharp shock with the beast from the east and 1 foot of snow and drifting,that was a 1 of a kind winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I'm never really a fan of a warm settled Septembers after naff Augusts so I'm hoping for a changeable one like the last few years. We haven't had a settled one at length since 2014 though so you never know... I just feel like, in the same way as the weather doesn't just click into full on autumn mode because it's September 1st, it won't click back into summer either. 

Unless the Arctic miraculously warms up and Atlantic cools down, I think a mobile September is on the cards, with high pressure to the south having varied influence.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

You can get summer like weather in March and October neither are remotely summer

 

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