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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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26 minutes ago, Steve Shears said:

Really odd.

I was expecting the transition from yesterdays hot to todays "autumnal" weather to be the real killer storm. It was relatively cold today so interesting what was feeding the storm. I presume it just brought its energy with it. Where was the heat?!

Lapse rates became increasingly steep this afternoon to west of the rain/cloud shield affecting much of SE/EA today, where sunnier skies bringing surface heating beneath mid-level temperatures dropping to a cold (for time of year) -20C or below at 500mb, this combined with lift from a shortwave trough moving east, as seen on the fax charts below, probably provided the instability and lift to produce the storms 

Fax for 6pm this evening

fax00_18z.thumb.gif.c8b638a8b78f839708625380b4b5a5cf.gif

500mb temps for 18z this evening

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018080900_18_18_447.thumb.png.543003e883eb1e6dd6583bd37a132b4c.png

Lapse rates

lapse.thumb.png.b107ee408ccff58354af936b48ed2668.png

Even 18z GFS not really picking up the instability inland across the SE though!

CAPE.thumb.png.7885335d3d6c0c0a1288f373a919d4d9.png

Edited by Nick F
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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Lapse rates became increasingly steep this afternoon to west of the rain/cloud shield affecting much of SE/EA today, where sunnier skies bringing surface heating beneath mid-level temperatures dropping to a cold (for time of year) -20C or below at 500mb, this combined with lift from a shortwave trough moving east, as seen on the fax charts below, probably provided the instability and lift to produce the storms 

Fax for 6pm this evening

fax00_18z.thumb.gif.c8b638a8b78f839708625380b4b5a5cf.gif

500mb temps for 18z this evening

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018080900_18_18_447.thumb.png.543003e883eb1e6dd6583bd37a132b4c.png

Lapse rates

lapse.thumb.png.b107ee408ccff58354af936b48ed2668.png

Even 18z GFS not really picking up the instability inland across the SE though!

CAPE.thumb.png.7885335d3d6c0c0a1288f373a919d4d9.png

That GFS chart was exactly what I saw, lesson learnt Nick :)

Edited by Greeny

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I've just seen an incredible CC-CG flash of lightning towards Eastbourne--it appeared as though it struck Beachy head!! Nice rolling thunder to go with it too. Maybe This convective season is finally done torturing me...?

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Well that woke me suddenly!! A few strikes over Eastbourne. 

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Interesting TAFFor Liverpool John Lennon.

 

 

Temporary
from 10 at 03 UTC to 10 at 18 UTC
Visibility: 6000 m
rain showers
Probability 30% :
Temporary
from 10 at 03 UTC to 10 at 07 UTC
Visibility: 4000 m
heavy rain showers
Becoming
from 10 at 05 UTC to 10 at 08 UTC
Wind 12 kt from the West
Probability 40% :
Temporary
from 10 at 07 UTC to 10 at 17 UTC
Wind 15 kt from the West/Northwest with gusts up to 25 kt
Visibility: 3000 m
Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft, Cumulonimbus.
heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain
Edited by Chris.R

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Oh yeeeeeaaaaaah

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 Oh wow! Lovely storm. Lots of close strikes. Gone right overhead. Epic just epic. 

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 Best storm in years. Ended with a massive positive cg strike. Some torrential rain in the core with small hail. Very Vigourous convection. Heading inland now and dissipating. Wait there is another rumble. Thought it was done.

 Amazing ocean effect convection 

 

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Can see flashes here distant rumbles from the storm north west of me

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A mate flying in to Heathrow this morning took these pics of a line of Cb’s to the SW. look quite developed already.

E4137C73-905C-44FC-8A3C-38091B27BC5B.jpeg

620311D0-8C2C-45A4-BD53-7846011BA692.jpeg

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Some good ingredients in play today for some nice storm development. Surprised none of the storm forecast sites seem to be picking up any warnings today - maybe some good storms but nothing too severe? Precip charts look very good with some moderate CAPE. Maybe I'm missing something?  

These sort of set ups historically are good for some weak tornado's/funnels 

Edited by Matty88

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What are people thinking for tomorrow in the SE? Seen a nearly 50/50 split between a sunny day and convective activity. 

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12 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Some good ingredients in play today for some nice storm development. Surprised none of the storm forecast sites seem to be picking up any warnings today - maybe some good storms but nothing too severe? Precip charts look very good with some moderate CAPE. Maybe I'm missing something?  

These sort of set ups historically are good for some weak tornado's/funnels 

I agree, these sort of days like last night in the south are ways full of suprises some really heavy stuff starting to make its way east 

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25 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Some good ingredients in play today for some nice storm development. Surprised none of the storm forecast sites seem to be picking up any warnings today - maybe some good storms but nothing too severe? Precip charts look very good with some moderate CAPE. Maybe I'm missing something? 

No you are not missing anything. There is the risk today of quite widespread thundery showers across the country. Already the NW around Merseyside has seen some activity and heavy showers and a few storms will become more widespread through the day. CAPE is not huge but it is enough and there is some wind shear on offer but some uncertainty as to whether storms will attain enough height to utilise it. Even so, the risk of something a bit more organised but most will be pulse type storms. Best chance of organised convection probably across East Central and Southern England. Any storm brings with it the risk of gusty winds, hail and torrential rain.

As ridging moves in from the west the showers and storms will be killed off so best chances will be diminishing by evening.

A forecast has been issued by Convective Weather

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-10

 

Edited by Supacell
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Storm & Convective Forecast

stormmap_100818.thumb.png.16f4be5e9d99a8a9476207ca6819ba3a.png

Issued 2018-08-10 07:33:55
Valid: 10/08/2018 00z - 11/08/2018 00z

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 10TH AUG 2018

Synopsis

Upper trough extends south across NE Atlantic and British Isles on Friday morning and will edge east to be across the North Sea / Norwegian Sea by late evening, further east upper ridge extends NE from SE Europe into western Russia. A cyclonic westerly surface flow will cover the UK, unstable to surface heating.

... ENGLAND, WALES and S SCOTLAND ...

An unseasonably deep and cold upper trough will cross the UK today, with 500mb temps as low as -25C, these cold mid-level temperatures atop a moist surface airmass heated in sunny spells will create steep lapse rates. Instability will be greatest this morning across the west before subsiding here into the afternoon when CAPE increases across central, southern and eastern England this afternoon, 400-800 j/kg range during peak heating. The passage of the upper trough will create large scale ascent beneath and ahead of it, before heights rise across the west in its wake this afternoon.

So heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely from the word go this morning across southern Scotland, NW England, Wales and SW England, before heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms develop further east across England through the day, as the upper trough advances east and surface heating increases instability.

W/NWly jet streak punching east across southern Britain will yield 0-6km shear values in the range of 40 knots - the strong upper winds and modest vertical shear will favour organisation of showers and storms into line segments across south Wales and SW England this morning, then central-S and SE England along with East Anglia into the afternoon. Mid-level dry air intrusion accompanying the jet streak will enhance convection, with some strong storms possible, the dry air also increasing potential for strong winds aloft to lower to the surface - bringing the risk of isolated strong wind gusts. Also hail may accompany storms, with potential for hail stones of 1-2cm in stronger cells, there is also potential for localised flash-flooding. Some backing of surface winds is noted on recent obs across SW England before winds switch westerly, indicative of trough passage, which suggests some strong low-level shear potential which may enhance the risk of stronger updrafts rotating into storms, so can't rule out a brief tornado too across S England.

Further north across England and southern Scotland - showers and storms will become increasingly confined towards the east in the afternoon, as heights rise to the west and convection weakens across Wales, N. Ireland and NW England, any showers and storms towards the east will still have the potential to produce hail, gusty winds and localised flooding.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

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lets hope we get something today this summer has been bad for storms here but the chesterfield storm sheild will probaly activate again and ruin potential 

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13 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

 

Nice little storm Rugby way

i live in rugby and got a text from the lovely lady saying she got thunder as i was at work.i was a at work at the royal mail site Royal Mail Distribution Facility at Danes Way, Daventry International Freight Terminal, Northamptonshire.19:35 I had text her and said i not surprised as it chucking it down here by 19:45 the  sound of the raid on the metal/perspex roof waas incredible it was like listening to white noise at full  volume.people where looking at  each other laughing,myself included as  you  couldn't hear yourself speak due to the intensity of the the rain.by  that time it was thunder and lightning every couple of mins or so with  what seem to increase in frequency.people out on the ramp filming the rain.20:00 the rain had stopped.soy i decided to go to the carpark for a vape and oh wow was i in for a treat.The rain  wall had passed and what  seem to be the battery of the storm was giving a wonderful display of vivid white lightning straight in front of me.Just to the right the clearly defined CB.beautiful cloud  to cloud jagged bolts zig zagging across with the sun right behind me as the cloud clearing the sun.That was probably the most photogenic storm i've seen in daylight hours.I was in awe of such wonderful display of lightning and cloud definition but sadded couldn't get any pictures of such beauty. I Wasn't  expecting Anything as nothing forecast but what a pleasant surprise.

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25 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

i live in rugby and got a text from the lovely lady saying she got thunder as i was at work.i was a at work at the royal mail site Royal Mail Distribution Facility at Danes Way, Daventry International Freight Terminal, Northamptonshire.19:35 I had text her and said i not surprised as it chucking it down here by 19:45 the  sound of the raid on the metal/perspex roof waas incredible it was like listening to white noise at full  volume.people where looking at  each other laughing,myself included as  you  couldn't hear yourself speak due to the intensity of the the rain.by  that time it was thunder and lightning every couple of mins or so with  what seem to increase in frequency.people out on the ramp filming the rain.20:00 the rain had stopped.soy i decided to go to the carpark for a vape and oh wow was i in for a treat.The rain  wall had passed and what  seem to be the battery of the storm was giving a wonderful display of vivid white lightning straight in front of me.Just to the right the clearly defined CB.beautiful cloud  to cloud jagged bolts zig zagging across with the sun right behind me as the cloud clearing the sun.That was probably the most photogenic storm i've seen in daylight hours.I was in awe of such wonderful display of lightning and cloud definition but sadded couldn't get any pictures of such beauty. I Wasn't  expecting Anything as nothing forecast but what a pleasant surprise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paragraph

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Just now, Another Kent clipper said:

You're just jealous you weren't there, let's be honest!

You got me ;)

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Don't know if anyone else saw it last night but I saw some faint occasional flashes to the southeast of here past midnight last night before i went to bed so either it was lightning going on somewhere or fireworks.

Certain it was lightning because of the way the flashes flickered. And i know heat lightning is a thing where on a clear night you can see lightning from long distances and there is no thunder because of how far the storm is.

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All quiet on the western front!

1603791707_2018-08-10(1).thumb.png.2140e184a56ea8d35fb31eb3e3fd1eb9.png

Edited by Mapantz

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5 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Best storm in years. Ended with a massive positive cg strike. Some torrential rain in the core with small hail. Very Vigourous convection. Heading inland now and dissipating. Wait there is another rumble. Thought it was done.

 Amazing ocean effect convection 

 

!!! I slept through it ☹️☹️

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 Looks like a nice storm Wrexham way ATM. 

 @Jan Ahhh no! It would’ve been impossible around here it was so loud. 

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