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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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19 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

@East_England_Stormchaser91

Well that gives me hope in this seemingly heat-only summer.  It also provide some convective equality in the east-west divide haha

October 11th 2006 here saw a morning storm that caused tremendous flash flooding, I still remember getting ready for school and very unexpectedly hearing thunder. Looked out my window and straight away saw a distant pink CG to the south! Got caught up in it, turned up to school and half the class got sent home for being so drenched 😂 

That was on the back of what was a very hot summer and September, so the chances are quite high of a similar theme this autumn I’d say. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Speaking of ocean effect convection; looks like a chance of that for my location towards dawn and tomorrow morning. Worth keeping an eye on.  I’ll just go and check the steering winds. 

 Yes I remember 11th Oct 2006. Got a storm here as well. Took me completely by surprise as I haven’t checked what was going on during the previous few days. I remember being very annoyed with myself...yeah that is a bit sad for an 11 year-old lol. 

Edited by Chris.R

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Right then just looked in detail at the potential overnight and into tomorrow morning. Looks good. Steering winds are just S of W veering to just N of W by tomorrow afternoon. SST – 850HPa temp difference is 14-15°C. 500HPa temps bottom out around midday tomorrow. CAPE naturally is at it’s greatest at this point. The flow is quite slack and directional sheer is less than 20°; both positive signs in this setup.  

 Let’s wait and see what happens but I’ll be keeping an eye on the Irish sea for some beefy cells and occasional sferics after midnight. 

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18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Right then just looked in detail at the potential overnight and into tomorrow morning. Looks good. Steering winds are just S of W veering to just N of W by tomorrow afternoon. SST – 850HPa temp difference is 14-15°C. 500HPa temps bottom out around midday tomorrow. CAPE naturally is at it’s greatest at this point. The flow is quite slack and directional sheer is less than 20°; both positive signs in this setup.  

 Let’s wait and see what happens but I’ll be keeping an eye on the Irish sea for some beefy cells and occasional sferics after midnight. 

And another bonus is that you’re not under the Dorset/Devon/Wiltshire/Hampshire/Surrey storm shield 😄

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Friend of mine said there was some spectacular  storms in southern France this morning,  he's camping too 🤤

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Northolt metar reported light thunderstorm not long ago. 

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Just now, Chris.R said:

Northolt metar reported light thunderstorm not long ago. 

He's been banging  his wheelie  bin 

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9 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

He's been banging  his wheelie  bin 

😂 i did have a thunderstorm, it has just cleared

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10 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

He's been banging  his wheelie  bin 

Och well - we all make mistakes?⛔

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25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well - we all make mistakes?⛔

 

 

39 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

He's been banging  his wheelie  bin 

not in the biblical sense😊

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

And another bonus is that you’re not under the Dorset/Devon/Wiltshire/Hampshire/Surrey storm shield 😄

An opportunity tomorrow - gotta be in it to win it.

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Just heard thunder. Looks very dark to the north of here so presumably it came from there. 

Edited by matt111

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Just had 20 mins of solid rain/hail in Rugby, Warwickshire...thunder rumbling with some lightning. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 10 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 11 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:03 UTC Thu 09 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: null

A sharp upper trough will move from west to east across the British Isles on Friday bringing the potential for widespread convection/showers. Ridging/rising heights will follow the trough brining drier, more settled conditions into Ireland and eventually western/southwestern Britain later in the day. Widespread showers and a several thunderstorms are expected, especially across parts of England. 

 
Generally moist profiles and surface to 500mb delta-Ts reaching into the mid-40s will help to generate in excess of 500 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon across much of central and eastern parts of England. Even further north into Scotland, as well as parts of Wales and northern and eastern parts of Ireland will see convection quite early on before ridging begins to limit the risk later. Shear profiles are relatively weak in central and northern Britain, but there is a pocket of higher shear across southern England that could help invigorate shower potential in southern England during the afternoon (perhaps with a few embedded line-segments). 
 
As a result, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across a large part of the British Isles, but the favoured zones for lightning potential seem to be across northern England, south to a line from Liverpool Bay to the Wash (higher CAPE), and across southern England south of the M4 (higher shear). 
 
Showers will peak with afternoon heating, and generally fade away with a combination of the upper trough clearing eastwards and the lack of surface insolation. 
 
Heavy downpours with localised flash flooding will be the largest risk, along with some hail to 1-1.5cm under the deepest convective cores in the northern SLGT area. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-10

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Ay-up Sunday looks interesting; just coming into range of the WRF. 

Edited by Chris.R

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