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Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed SC...And, with the warm-cold boundary likely to traverse the country several times, the chances of storms must be better than even...?

Absolutely. Unlike previous summers/autumns where the Atlantic steamrolls through and into N Europe leaving us under persistent westerlies.

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I thought the ‘no storms club’ was a thread for observations from anyone who hasn’t had a storm yet... Surely convective moans should go in a ‘thunderstorm moans’ thread instead?

in fact - wasn’t there one of these some time ago? Does it even still exist?

I apologise for my part in general convective moaning - i’m Trying desperately to stay positive - but events like yesterday are so common for our area at the moment. In fact I would make a guess that only 1 in every 8 storm forecasts for our area ends in some kind of reasonable result.

...whinge over! Mods please move it if u like 😉

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Will the south and west and Wiltshire get a thunderstorms this mouth because I am still waiting for a thunderstorm 

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 Looks like a heavy shower heading my way.  Don’t think there’s enough CAPE for lightning today though. 

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I love how everyday people come on here and ask 'will my area get a thunderstorm today'? Nobody knows, just wait and see. If you do you do, if you dont you dont. My town hasnt had a single thunderclap or flash since september 2016 so dont worry bout it. Some places get more than others.

enjoy the great summer we are having

Rant over

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@Flash bang flash bang etc

I could have put money on the western branch of that stormy mass to light up the path into London. 

I wish I had the weather know-how to tell what's elevated and what's surface based.  It seems that it was the latter and the time of day was what killed it off

IMG_20180808_131333.png

In other news...my sky is beginning to look interesting

IMG_20180808_132226.jpg

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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Any thoughts on the potential later tonight and into tomorrow? I see the Net weather front page calling for 'potential' heading up from the continent.

More thundery rain than storms perhaps, some models seem to break out cells to the West of the rain band at midday Thursday.

Edited by sunnijim
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2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

Any thoughts on the potential later tonight and into tomorrow? I see the Net weather front page calling for 'potential' heading up from the continent.

More thundery rain than storms perhaps, some models seem to break out cells to the West of the rain band at midday Thursday.

I read at Metcheck about *some* potential tomo - but with no ppm / risk map or further detail to clarify at this stage.

CW usually deliver something by early evening tho so not long to wait to find out...

Definately don’t hold out much hope for anything, but I am thinking the next 2 to 3 months hold a lot more promise than June July and August did - which seems counterintuitive considering the extreme temps we’ve seen.

Watch this space - there’s a good deal of weather still to go before we put up the Christmas tree...

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Haha lightning 30 miles away in the wrong direction yet again. 

Edited by Chris.R

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2 hours ago, Scott Page said:

I love how everyday people come on here and ask 'will my area get a thunderstorm today'? Nobody knows, just wait and see. If you do you do, if you dont you dont. My town hasnt had a single thunderclap or flash since september 2016 so dont worry bout it. Some places get more than others.

enjoy the great summer we are having

Rant over

Great summer??!!!?

Boiling, sweating, stinking, disgusting, energy sapping, sleep destroying, sticky, exhaustion inducing, burning, opressive, god awful heat is not my idea of a "great summer". Autumn cannot get here soon enough...

Edited by Windblade
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Thunderstorm drought has finally gone ..... Heavy rain , lightning thunder and hail here now :yahoo:

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Will the south and west and Wiltshire get a thunderstorms this mouth because I am still waiting for a thunderstorm  come ????

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6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I thought the ‘no storms club’ was a thread for observations from anyone who hasn’t had a storm yet... Surely convective moans should go in a ‘thunderstorm moans’ thread instead?

in fact - wasn’t there one of these some time ago? Does it even still exist?

I apologise for my part in general convective moaning - i’m Trying desperately to stay positive - but events like yesterday are so common for our area at the moment. In fact I would make a guess that only 1 in every 8 storm forecasts for our area ends in some kind of reasonable result.

...whinge over! Mods please move it if u like 😉

Yes there is a 'no storms' thread and yes I started it in May.

It's seen as a lack of thunderstorm's thread so just rain doesn't count, sorry.

It's for moaning about general lack or forecasts that never did anything thunderstorm related.

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20 minutes ago, Dami said:

Yes there is a 'no storms' thread and yes I started it in May.

It's seen as a lack of thunderstorm's thread so just rain doesn't count, sorry.

It's for moaning about general lack or forecasts that never did anything thunderstorm related.

Cool thanks, i’ll try and remember to rant in there 😉

Might not see me in here for a while... 😄

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This is an interesting read (the bits I could properly grasp) explaining the situation yesterday, how the forecast modelling picked up signals that there was a chance for deep convection and why in reality it wasn’t what we were expecting:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/119695-synoptic-mesoscale-complexities-of-elevated-deep-convection-7-august-2018/page__pid__1057881#entry1057881

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Will rubery get a thunderstorm soon? Lol what is with some people asking if such places will get storms, nobody knows if and where will get any just if there’s a chance and I’d say no chance unless it’s towards the se in the next few days, pretty much how it’s been lately. Anyway gota say it’s nice not to be wet from sweat today 

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Even though we was in the green warning area for thunderstorms today we got warm sunshine all day. Nice in a way but still no thunder at all since Sept 2016...nearly 2 years now...

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That Biscay storm system looks like it could get nasty across the channel later tomorrow. Wide variance in what the models are suggesting, the track seems set but the deepening is quick on ECM leading to 80mph gusts over the Netherlands. Let's hope they do have the track right. A shift 100 miles NW from this developing system could bring gales and torrential rain to the SE fringes of our region. 

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Looks like there was something interesting off the Welsh coast last night. The ocean effect beginning to kick into gear. We will see more of that sort of thing as we get towards the autumn. With SSTs being so high I expect ocean effect/lake effect convection will be a huge feature well into winter. 

Edited by Chris.R
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34 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Looks like there was something interesting off the Welsh coast last night. The ocean effect beginning to kick into gear. We will see more of that sort of thing as we get towards the autumn. With SSTs being so high I expect ocean effect/lake effect convection will be a huge feature well into winter. 

That would have been my favourite type of storm.  Completely unexpected

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4 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

That would have been my favourite type of storm.  Completely unexpected

Exactly. With SST’s so high, we could see similar albeit more watered down activity as what happens in the Mediterranean during the autumn months, a lot of water based convection and storms! 

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14 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

That Biscay storm system looks like it could get nasty across the channel later tomorrow. Wide variance in what the models are suggesting, the track seems set but the deepening is quick on ECM leading to 80mph gusts over the Netherlands. Let's hope they do have the track right. A shift 100 miles NW from this developing system could bring gales and torrential rain to the SE fringes of our region. 

Nasty storm for the Netherlands, could be even worse for Denmark and S Sweden. Thankfully, our region should escape all that vileness.

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