Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

Recommended Posts

A few flashes around Eastbourne at the moment!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Bust and bed.

*insert rude joke here*

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few big rumbles here but nothing special.  Not even much rain I am on the edge of the rain coming up from IOW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Waste of time even writing this, but what a s**t place to live for thunderstorms 😔

Yes. Yet again the infuriating eastward push as that atlantic dross scuppers our chances of anything decent for another few weeks, pushes any potential away from central / S.E. England yet again. Absolutely pathetic way to end weeks of sunshine, heat and humidity. Even arid and drought-affected 1976 had more storms than 2018. 

I loathe this current synoptic situation as much as the winter equivalent of a cold snap ending with the atlantic pushing fronts east and all we get in southern England is a forecast of snow which always results in a marginal let-down and drizzle while the north have the snow. One bad thing (impotent and useless 'breakdown') leads to another (an atlantic dominated scene with completely uninteresting conditions - anything but the much craved storms and decent sunshine and temperatures). If there is ever a 'good' breakdown with a decent storm in Guildford then the post break-down conditions will probably stay pleasant and won't be atlantic-dominated - signs of a true good summer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bright flash just then, but the flashes are very, very sparse. I'm going to get some kip soon, and I don't know, dream about a REAL thundery breakdown...?

Edited by LightningLover
"Grammar, Stanley".
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Waste of time even writing this, but what a s**t place to live for thunderstorms 😔

I haven't had a storm this year, either. I haven't been particularly bothered by it. I think it's because of how long the very warm weather has been going - i've enjoyed every minute of it. In past events, there's just a couple of hot and humid days, and then a thundery breakdown, and luck is needed for that as well. After that, it's usually back to crap weather, before hunting the next plume episode down.

tl;dr I've been enjoying the dry & hot weather too much to care for a thunderstorm.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All this unbearable heat here in thesouth east gets and we can't even spark of a major break down , poor but not surprised as its the UK 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I the only one seeing any action at the moment?? Seems to be a lot of moaning going on!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m just across the Thames from you Dave, and I’m getting rain with sporadic rumbles but nothing to get overly excited about

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks quite defined now almost like a squall line on the Radar .

F64E979D-26A2-4A20-83AE-ADA9977F5EB6.png

Edited by Mark wheeler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Torrential downpour here, occasional flashes lighting up the sky. Second small storm of the day, can't complain 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I haven't had a storm this year, either. I haven't been particularly bothered by it. I think it's because of how long the very warm weather has been going - i've enjoyed every minute of it. In past events, there's just a couple of hot and humid days, and then a thundery breakdown, and luck is needed for that as well. After that, it's usually back to crap weather, before hunting the next plume episode down.

tl;dr I've been enjoying the dry & hot weather too much to care for a thunderstorm.

Lol good luck hunting... I would recommend start with plane tickets and learning to speak Italian 😄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Farmer Dave said:

Am I the only one seeing any action at the moment?? Seems to be a lot of moaning going on!

Yes indeed, I thought there was a no storms club for that. Like mapantz says I've been enjoying an incredibly lovely summer of heat and sunshine without dreary days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Greeny said:

Yes indeed, I thought there was a no storms club for that. Like mapantz says I've been enjoying an incredibly lovely summer of heat and sunshine without dreary days.

There is but unfortunately nobody seems to use it.

For those thinking that the hot spell coming to a temporary end marks the 'waste' of all that hot, humid build up of air then fear not. SST's are higher than normal and the prolonged dry, hot spell means that the ground is still dry even if it does rain. Add to this the hot weather is never going to be that far away. I expect the hot air will be back (met office long range forecast hints at this) and it would not take much to rebuild the heat and humidity again. Hot summer's can lead to very thundery autumns, and I expect this year to follow suit with storms well into Autumn.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

There is but unfortunately nobody seems to use it.

For those thinking that the hot spell coming to a temporary end marks the 'waste' of all that hot, humid build up of air then fear not. SST's are higher than normal and the prolonged dry, hot spell means that the ground is still dry even if it does rain. Add to this the hot weather is never going to be that far away. I expect the hot air will be back (met office long range forecast hints at this) and it would not take much to rebuild the heat and humidity again. Hot summer's can lead to very thundery autumns, and I expect this year to follow suit with storms well into Autumn.

Indeed SC...And, with the warm-cold boundary likely to traverse the country several times, the chances of storms must be better than even...?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-08

Does the I'm in a slight dance...

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Aug 2018

ISSUED 20:51 UTC Tue 07 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad upper trough over the Atlantic to the west of Ireland will gradually approach, with strong mid and upper-level flow over the British Isles. Cool air aloft atop warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland will result in a few hundred J/kg CAPE and a scattering of showers in quite a few places - away from the south and east of England.

 
A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible from almost any shower, but the best overlap of marginal CAPE and strong deep layer shear (some 40-50kts) may allow some better-organised cells to develop from Wales across the W + N Midlands into northern England, capable of some small hail and gusty winds - associated with a shortwave moving northeastwards across an occluded front.
 
Showers along this occlusion will tend to decay during the evening hours as surface heating subsides and the shortwave overruns, but this front may become the focus for showery outbreaks of rain later in the night across the East Midlands / East Anglia / S + SE England as a more pronounced shortwave approaches from Biscay.
At the same time, steepening mid-level lapse rates will approach W Scotland overnight, with an increase in heavy showers likely here during the early hours - a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible with this activity

Screenshot_20180808-100506.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Storm & Convective Forecast

stormmap_080818.thumb.png.989c291fbc38b35695129f6d11da4faa.png

Issued 2018-08-08 09:10:37
Valid: 08/08/2018 00z - 09/08/2018 00z

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - WEDS 8TH AUGUST 2018

Synopsis

Large upper trough will edge slowly east across western British Isles on Wednesday, with a deeply cyclonic SWly flow across UK, driven by a strong SWly jet stream running across England and Wales. A slow-moving depression between Scotland and Iceland will drive an occluded front east across the UK today, bringing heavy showers and thundestorms across northern, central and western areas.

... E SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, WALES, SW ENGLAND ...

Cold mid-level temperatures associated with upper trough close to the west will create steep lapse rates towards northern and western Britain, increasing with surface heating in sunny spells. The steep lapse rates will support heavy showers and increasingly thunderstorms as diurnal heating increases. The showers and storms will form bands along the streamlines created by strong SWly flow aloft, following occluded front moving east bringing perhaps a more organised broken line of showers intially. Although 30-40 knots of deep layer shear will also help in organisation of showers/storms, lack of more appreciable moisture and temperatures in returning Pm flow will mean limited depth of convection, so strong storms are unlikely. Some more intense cells may produce small hail, gusty winds and localised flooding. Any storms will fade after dark.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...