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Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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Posted (edited)

Rugby and Wellingborough got a pasting on radar (lightningmaps) and as I'm typing this four simultaneous strikes just went up right between them, just north of Northampton. I'd love to be under that right now.

 

Hoping my chance will come later in the night. 

 

Edited by Windblade

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Just now, Windblade said:

Rugby and Wellingbourough got a pasting on radar (lightningmaps) and as I'm typing this four simultaneous strikes just went up right between them, just north of Northampton. I'd love to be under that right now.

 

Hoping my chance will come later in the night. 

 

I’ve noticed that you can get up to 4 registered strikes for one fork of lightening on radar - so you can’t always take it on face value

Does look like a good little storm though

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hearing distant rumbles from the E now

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24 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’ve noticed that you can get up to 4 registered strikes for one fork of lightening on radar - so you can’t always take it on face value

Does look like a good little storm though

Could it be showing four forks that splintered off from one big bolt I wonder?

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Could it be showing four forks that splintered off from one big bolt I wonder?

I think if the fork is big (read: powerful) enough it registers several times - perhaps because of the reflash?

This is merely based on when I’ve been watching a storm IRL while monitoring the radar and I’ve definately had multiple registers from the same bolt.

Curious thing is they aren’t always in exactly the same place, so there’s something funny going on in the way it detects it. This could well be it picking up the secondary forks... I just couldn’t say 🙂

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 09 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 10 Apr 2019

ISSUED 19:45 UTC Mon 08 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal boundary will sink slowly southwards across southern Britain on Tuesday, bringing cloud and outbreaks of largely dynamic rain. Ahead, surface heating may be sufficient enough over SW England and SW Ireland for sea breeze convergence to aid in the development of a few heavy showers, especially combined with orographic forcing over the moors. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible as a result. However, this is dependent on sufficient cloud breaks and also the speed of the front approaching from the north.

If the front speeds up, the focus may shift to the immediate post-frontal environment with sea breeze convergence perhaps developing over southern counties of England behind the main rain shield, helping to generate a few isolated heavy showers. Confidence in this occurring is rather low though.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-09

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23 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think if the fork is big (read: powerful) enough it registers several times - perhaps because of the reflash?

This is merely based on when I’ve been watching a storm IRL while monitoring the radar and I’ve definately had multiple registers from the same bolt.

Curious thing is they aren’t always in exactly the same place, so there’s something funny going on in the way it detects it. This could well be it picking up the secondary forks... I just couldn’t say 🙂

Interesting. I've also found the radar to miss quite a few strikes I've seen with my own eyes. I'm not sure if it picks up ic, cg or both?

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Posted (edited)

Must admit, it's nice to see the storms forum more active again after the winter off season. So far (although I've only had a few rumbles myself) april and the storm season in general has been off to a good start for quite a few peeps. Some lovely convective cloudscapes have been keeping me entertained, both near home and further afield including two cb's I spotted that had formed wall clouds on a trip back from Norfolk last thursday afternoon (sadly I was driving on the M11 at the time so couldn't stop to take pictures) and some other cb's with huge rain cores I saw on the horizon before later punching through on the same journey. The sky was really talking that day.

Looks like we've got a bit of a lull coming up with a Scandanavian high moving in, but even so my confidence for a good season has been boosted by what we've seen so far. 

Edited by Windblade
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3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Must admit, it's nice to see the storms forum more active again after the winter off season. So far (although I've only had a few rumbles myself) april and the storm season in general has been off to a good start for quite a few peeps. Some lovely convective cloudscapes have been keeping me entertained, both near home and further afield including two cb's I spotted that had formed wall clouds on a trip back from Norfolk last thursday afternoon (sadly I was driving on the M11 at the time so couldn't stop to take pictures) and some other cb's with huge rain cores I saw on the horizon before later punching through on the same journey. The sky was really talking that day.

Looks like we've got a bit of a lull coming up with a Scandanavian high moving in, but even so my confidence for a good season has been boosted by what we've seen so far. 

Same man, would love to see what the next few months brings.

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I also managed to capture the cumulonimbus cloud north of Bedford 10 minutes before it started producing lightning.

 

IMG_4829[1].JPG

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13 hours ago, Windblade said:

Interesting. I've also found the radar to miss quite a few strikes I've seen with my own eyes. I'm not sure if it picks up ic, cg or both?

It seems like smaller (single-cell) storms have a nearly 100% pick-up rate but the moment you get several cells near each other it does miss a lot more strikes, possibly because there’s a lot more IC activity? or maybe the activity deep within the cloud is somehow unrecognisable on the radio?

It probably evens out in the totals (when on average one strike counts as two and every other one is missed) - so I think the totals and strike rates are pretty accurate regardless - but I read the radar cautiously these days - clusters of strikes on radar don’t necessarily mean there’s a hugely active storm in the area

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18 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Indeed, this one was a particular big bolt last year:

Screenshot_20190410-230832.png

Yes I remember this it was an ICCCCCCGCGCGCCCCCCCCGCGCGCCCCCCG. Quite bright, too 🙂

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On 09/04/2019 at 19:34, zmstorm said:

I also managed to capture the cumulonimbus cloud north of Bedford 10 minutes before it started producing lightning.

 

IMG_4829[1].JPG

Seeing massive cb's like this really gives me a sense of mother natures power. Great pic.

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On 10/04/2019 at 09:00, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It seems like smaller (single-cell) storms have a nearly 100% pick-up rate but the moment you get several cells near each other it does miss a lot more strikes, possibly because there’s a lot more IC activity? or maybe the activity deep within the cloud is somehow unrecognisable on the radio?

It probably evens out in the totals (when on average one strike counts as two and every other one is missed) - so I think the totals and strike rates are pretty accurate regardless - but I read the radar cautiously these days - clusters of strikes on radar don’t necessarily mean there’s a hugely active storm in the area

Thanks for your detailed explanation. Yes, that does make a lot of sense. As you say I think it would generally even out. I wasn't sure if it was picking up both ic and cg strikes or just one type? Not sure exactly how the radar detects strikes, but would enjoy learning.😃 

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On 10/04/2019 at 23:10, Another Kent clipper said:

Indeed, this one was a particular big bolt last year:

Screenshot_20190410-230832.png

See that tiny gap on the SE coastline...? Yep, that's me! so unlucky!

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Nice little heavy shower with some hail mixed in passed through here an hour ago. Looking to my northwest I can see a small cb developing, complete with clearly defined anvil. Did not expect that today. 😃

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Posted (edited)

It's nice to see some interest in terms of storm potential next week:oldgrin:

GFSOPUK18_192_11.thumb.png.54900e3d4e725c3c395cc8f30eac8e5a.png

lets hope this year will be better than last year.

P.S. any chance of a new thread for 2019!!!

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted (edited)
On 17/04/2019 at 23:43, Allseasons-si said:

It's nice to see some interest in terms of storm potential next week:oldgrin:

GFSOPUK18_192_11.thumb.png.54900e3d4e725c3c395cc8f30eac8e5a.png

lets hope this year will be better than last year.

P.S. any chance of a new thread for 2019!!!

Recent charts have got me back into storm hunting mode for the year 🙂  Potentially some thundery showers dotted around next week, although the low pressure is tending to push in from the West rather than dive towards Iberia now. Interesting charts for Tues afternoon/evening and into Wednesday morning on the GFS, but I wonder if this is more general bands of rain/showers than storm potential? 

Edited by Chris K
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On ‎17‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 23:43, Allseasons-si said:

It's nice to see some interest in terms of storm potential next week:oldgrin:

GFSOPUK18_192_11.thumb.png.54900e3d4e725c3c395cc8f30eac8e5a.png

lets hope this year will be better than last year.

P.S. any chance of a new thread for 2019!!!

Ask and you shall receive 🙂

 

 

 

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