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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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Posted (edited)

Just had a nice line of cells over me and managed to capture a quite decent shelf cloud with other cells bubbling in the distance 

 

 

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Edited by Atmogenic

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I have received a comment about yesterday's timelapse, 18th March 2019, saying the cloud is spinning from 0.32 to 0.39

When I first saw the timelapse, it did catch my attention the development of the cloud but I'm not an expert on what was going on.

 

 

 

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Makes it much more pretty when they were snow showers which they were sunday.

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image.thumb.png.b602a177c80a346db0b042a5ca9b1352.pngTaken by my son whilst flying at the weekend

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Posted (edited)
On 17/03/2019 at 19:05, Weather-history said:

Some good convection this morning

 

I spotted a weird double flash around 32 seconds:

 

Screenshot_20190320-231152.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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4 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I spotted a weird double flash around 32 seconds:

 

Screenshot_20190320-231152.png

Could be birds, there is another at around 24s not far from that same spot

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 22 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 23 Mar 2019

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Thu 21 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will slide southeastwards across Ireland and Scotland on Friday, weakening significantly by the time it reaches Wales and northern England during the afternoon. However, a for a time some elements of line convection seem likely given a narrow tongue of warm, moist low-level air within a strongly-sheared environment and marked wind veer as the front moves through - this perhaps most notable in Ireland. 

The post-frontal environment will then be characterised by steepening mid-level lapse rates as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs, generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect north and west Scotland, with a few isolated lightning strikes possible along with small hail.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-03-22

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On 20/03/2019 at 22:08, chapmanslade said:

image.thumb.png.b602a177c80a346db0b042a5ca9b1352.pngTaken by my son whilst flying at the weekend

That is a good shot that,thanks for sharing.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 23 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 24 Mar 2019

ISSUED 16:06 UTC Fri 22 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad westerly flow will dominate across the British Isles through Saturday, with renewed pulses of cold air aloft overspreading northern Britain, steepening mid-level lapse rates and generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect northern and western Scotland, with small hail, gusty winds and a few lightning strikes possible at times.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-03-23

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 24 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 25 Mar 2019

ISSUED 20:11 UTC Sat 23 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible on Sunday daytime, courtesy of scattered showers associated with a cold pool passing to the north of Scotland. However, increased ridging from the west will result in instability reducing during the evening and night hours.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-03-24

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I'm so excited for the convective season! Not long now, Good UK thunderstorms can arrive as early as mid-late April...

Good luck to everyone this year!

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 31 Mar 2019

ISSUED 20:44 UTC Fri 29 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Saturday, a surface cold front will sink slowly southwards from Northern Ireland / southern Scotland into northern England. Ahead, diurnal heating in a rather slack environment will encourage sea breeze development and hence zones of low-level convergence inland, while profiles moisten aloft. This, combined with marginal moisture pooling along these convergence boundaries (dewpoints 7-10C) may provide sufficient lift for a few isolated to well-scattered showers to develop on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Lack of any notable shear and rather weak instability suggests lightning is rather unlikely, and so should be treated at the lower end of our LOW threat criteria (5%).

Meanwhile, an upper trough will slide across the Northern Isles during Saturday daytime, steepening lapse rates and generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered wintry showers will affect these areas for a time, perhaps producing a few isolated lightning strikes.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-03-30

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 Apr 2019

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Sun 31 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

... SE ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT ...

Upper ridging initially over the British Isles on Monday will relax away to the east as a sharpening Atlantic upper trough approaches from the west. The net result is the flow aloft will begin to veer from an easterly to a southerly quadrant, allowing advection of a relatively high ThetaE airmass to occur on Monday evening/night from France into SE England. This airmass will have been diurnally-heated during Monday daytime, then lifted from the surface as it moves northwards above a notably cool boundary layer.

This isentropic upglide, combined with increased forcing aloft from the approaching upper trough, will result in increasing mid-level instability over SE England on Monday night. There is reasonable multi-model support to suggest the potential for elevated showers to develop over the eastern English Channel and / or SE England during the late evening, these then drifting NE-wards and expanding in coverage across East Anglia during the early hours of Tuesday.

Lightning activity is questionable given marginal instability (a few hundred J/kg CAPE and somewhat meagre shear), but some sporadic lightning seems plausible given forecast profiles. If confidence improves an upgrade to SLGT may be required - more especially for the eastern half of the existing LOW threat area.

... W SCOTLAND / NW IRELAND MONDAY NIGHT ...

Behind the cold front, the aforementioned upper trough will dig southwards across these areas, the associated cold air aloft atop relatively warm seas helping to contribute to increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE during the early hours of Tuesday. Numerous showers will affect the area, with some sporadic lightning and small hail in the most intense cells.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-01

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Convective weather is saying that there is the potential for a few elevated showers/t-storms tomorrow evening, From a tongue of higher WBPT air mass from France...

Interesting! First elevated/imported convection of the year?

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I'm seeing a weak signal for maybe something over East Sussex/Kent late in the day/evening?

 

Can't wait until this week and probably next week are out the way and hopefully we can start seeing the start of some proper plumes appearing in the charts.

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I have an ac field over my head.

 

1554125373656456866.jpg

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Posted (edited)

First of hopefully many this year. My take on this evening's potential.

201904011_zpsuylbhdfw.jpg

Edited by Convective

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With clear skies and potentially quite high cloud tops I think it might be good for a few distant flashes from up on the hills. Could be wrong but would be a great start to 2019 storm season if it does

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Surprised to be underneath this lot when I came outside.

C88253FB-0B55-4648-A0B2-2AE3D00F240C.jpeg

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37 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

With clear skies and potentially quite high cloud tops I think it might be good for a few distant flashes from up on the hills. Could be wrong but would be a great start to 2019 storm season if it does

Fingers crossed mate! 🙂 

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Small chance of something elevated during the small hours. But many times we've seen it drift past a little too far East.

563366280_Annotation2019-04-01201624.thumb.jpg.19ad0745d4a123d33179ed3e886d1605.jpg 154760774_Annotation2019-04-01201648.thumb.jpg.18fcb6e99c9b1baff281423a51280f93.jpg

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