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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 Dec 2018

ISSUED 20:20 UTC Wed 19 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low will linger close to NW Britain through Thursday, with cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs, generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers are expected to develop over open seas, then transferring inland by steering winds and sometimes well-inland as organised trough features move through in the westerly flow. A few isolated lightning strikes and small hail will be possible. Heights will rise across the Republic of Ireland and southern Britain during the day, reducing instability and convective depth (and hence decreasing lightning potential).

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-12-20

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Amazing looking back at those graphics. Despite images 3 & 4 showing it, I didn't get a direct storm hit at all this year. All I managed was a few flashes and rumbles in the distance.

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Image 4 was on my birthday and there was definitely nothing here then. The one on 26th May gave a decent show here but the one in April wasn't bad at all.

 

Edited by matt111

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I had a good show in April, but May was pretty spectacular especially because it happened at night. I was in Weymouth at the time and we didn’t get any direct hits but we enjoyed watching the storms to our north and east.

9956F90A-EB05-49FD-8517-C4B09A3A4607.thumb.jpeg.9d5840d3a4e913cd3e8d3e153271be35.jpeg View from Weymouth...

 

In July, I missed out on the action as I was in Paris but we did have heavy showers with some distant thunder

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Would it be true to say that july 27th was the most active day ever known for the uk?  Hopefully not, because I would like repeat of it in 2019, and hopefully be underneath some of it...

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26th May was incredible for my location; I saw some of the most prolific lightning I have ever seen in the channel (must have been at least 450-500 strikes a min- Most of it wasn't even picked up on Blitzortung, presumably due to it's elevated nature). It was amazing how quickly and seemingly out of nowhere the MCS developed in the channel, the lightning becoming visible by around 23:15. And beforehand I was ready to call it quits, as everything was firing further west (beyond sight/ear shot of Bexhill, quite similar to the 21st April). It was as if nature was reminding me to not give up!

And my god, the rainfall! for around 10 minutes, an absolute BUCKET-LOAD  of rain (with perhaps some small hail mixed in) fell, crashing deafeningly against the conservatory roof. Rainfall rates as indicated by NW radar suggested the rainfall was in excess of 175mm/hr; However, you could argue that it was measuring the rain that was also evaporating before reaching the surface. Eerily enough, at the exact stroke of midnight, the rainfall, as well as the constant drumming of elevated thunder, just... stopped. No lightning, nothing. It all moved NNW very quickly after stalling as it hit the coastline for 10 minutes.

(The rest of the year was TOSH. It was near miss after near miss, punctuated by non-events. Let's hope the weather gods give us a historic/memorable Jan-March in terms of cold, huh? it's only fair...)

Edited by LightningLover

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I remember that storm well,cheered me up after madrid dashed my hopes of a 6th European cup,I left the pub,walked round the back,and was greeted to some monumental lightning flashes,I raced home and got there well before it hit,watching it get closer and closer on the decking,until I thought thats close enough,210 or so ft asl,and surrounded by trees,It was time to get indoors,amazing,but that was it for the year,not good at all,my best storm was the 1st bank holiday in may last year,I stood out on the sea wall at jury's gap,nr camber,and watched that monster roll in across the channel,I even went facebook live as it boomed overhead,raining cats and dogs,but still I watched and broadcast to my army of facebook live friends,1 of my mates was even broadcasting me to holland,so felt I had a duty,lol,it was epic,although I was increasingly aware that stood on top the wall,I was the tallest structure around,as beyond the sea wall,the landscape is below sea level,a few seconds later,an almighty flash,and a felt the hairs on my neck stand up,and an almighty boom like a fooking cannon,a few swear words later,I beat a hasty retreat to the car,lol,reed timmer got nothing on me

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All 5 of those days offered up a great storm chase opportunity for me with the 27th July being the best of all as I was in Lincolnshire under the high risk from Convective Weather. Very little at home but plenty out and about on either side of the 8 week long summer dry spell.

Another good day was May 31st but it was much more localised and so overall did not produce as much lightning as those in the top 5.

 

Edited by Supacell

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1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

26th May was incredible for my location; I saw some of the most prolific lightning I have ever seen in the channel (must have been at least 450-500 strikes a min- Most of it wasn't even picked up on Blitzortung, presumably due to it's elevated nature). It was amazing how quickly and seemingly out of nowhere the MCS developed in the channel, the lightning becoming visible by around 23:15. And beforehand I was ready to call it quits, as everything was firing further west (beyond sight/ear shot of Bexhill, quite similar to the 21st April). It was as if nature was reminding me to not give up!

And my god, the rainfall! for around 10 minutes, an absolute BUCKET-LOAD  of rain (with perhaps some small hail mixed in) fell, crashing deafeningly against the conservatory roof. Rainfall rates as indicated by NW radar suggested the rainfall was in excess of 175mm/hr; However, you could argue that it was measuring the rain that was also evaporating before reaching the surface. Eerily enough, at the exact stroke of midnight, the rainfall, as well as the constant drumming of elevated thunder, just... stopped. No lightning, nothing. It all moved NNW very quickly after stalling as it hit the coastline for 10 minutes.

(The rest of the year was TOSH. It was near miss after near miss, punctuated by non-events. Let's hope the weather gods give us a historic/memorable Jan-March in terms of cold, huh? it's only fair...)

Although there was a lack of storm days, the quality of the storms rank up with some of the best I’ve seen in this country. 

The 27th July and 26th May days take gold and silver positions. 

27th July saw some of the most explosive conditions I’ve ever witnessed and a whole variety of storms from multicell complexes to 2 confirmed supercells (Swaffham - Norfolk, and York) and a MCV up from NE France hitting the SE and EA. One of those rare days where you got high CAPE and high wind shear combining. 

Meanwhile, the night of the 26th May produced some of the highest rates of lightning discharge I’ve personally ever witnessed. I chased down to Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire that night, and was rewarded very nicely indeed! 

A very great year in my opinion! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Although there was a lack of storm days, the quality of the storms rank up with some of the best I’ve seen in this country. 

The 27th July and 26th May days take gold and silver positions. 

27th July saw some of the most explosive conditions I’ve ever witnessed and a whole variety of storms from multicell complexes to 2 confirmed supercells (Swaffham - Norfolk, and York) and a MCV up from NE France hitting the SE and EA. 

Meanwhile, the night of the 26th May produced some of the highest rates of lightning discharge I’ve personally ever witnessed. I chased down to Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire that night, and was rewarded very nicely indeed! 

A very great year in my opinion! 

True, true. When I say 'the rest of the year was tosh', I kind of meant from an IMBY perspective, in the fact that the 27th July MCV narrowly avoided me JUST to the east. And the 21st April missed me to my west. I bet those supercells further north were quite something though, especially for the UK!

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I took some photos of the beauty on the 27th July,I had just got back from holiday,thought about chasing,but I had my daughter's with me,and 1 of them is still scarred from the mcs we had in juky a few years back,I was married to the mother then,all I remember was the beautiful green clouds,swirling around,akin to something from the American mid west,rather than rye,then the shelf cloud rolled in,and BOOM,all hell broke loose,I witnessed huge branches being ripped from trees,as I lay,all 25stone of me,on top of the trampoline to weigh it down,epic entertainment,if it wasn't due to fact that I suffer with severely ibs,I would go storm chasing over in america,1 day I might get there

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2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

True, true. When I say 'the rest of the year was tosh', I kind of meant from an IMBY perspective, in the fact that the 27th July MCV narrowly avoided me JUST to the east. And the 21st April missed me to my west. I bet those supercells further north were quite something though, especially for the UK!

Here’s just a few.

They were indeed. One picture of the York supercell clearly showed a rotating mesocyclone and wall cloud! Along with the giant hail. Something that is very rarely seen here. We just haven’t usually got the right breeding ground to support them types of storms. But with 33-34c temps combining with Low level and deep layer shear from a S/SW-N/NE propelled jet with a slightly backed SSE flow, that will give the best chance you can get to breed classic supercells in this country. 

378F4D28-83E4-443B-BD44-7EF8B9C7A767.png

F27A6B4E-778B-4B8D-BF62-C5E96F57D16E.png

99734A25-E6A1-435C-B635-4F94208E143B.jpeg

6947A987-389D-49C3-B932-65CD5F826896.jpeg

541BD0CE-CAF9-4D85-8929-05E9E082B989.png

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Found this picture I took in late May. Doesn't look much but I found out after I took it that it was nearly 100 miles away. 

EAB21F82-A6D1-4696-A1C1-1038A0239E38.jpeg

Edited by matt111

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This is a photo (frame grab) from my video of Hurricane Orphelia on Anglesy, Wales. Bit out of date but glad to be there. The view is from a high cliff looking down on the lighthouse. The waves were huge and the spray was being blown at 90mph up the cliff and past us. I had to be held in place to film even though we were out of the worst of it. Orphelia was Hurrican No 2 for me, having been in the Storm of 87. If anyone knows how to get a video from 400mb down to under 10mb to put on here, I will. 

 

Hurricane Orphelia.png

Edited by nwextremeweather

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Jan 2019

ISSUED 20:24 UTC Tue 15 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will slide southeastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday. On the forward side, a cold front will move across England and Wales under the influence of a strongly sheared environment. As such, some elements of line convection seem likely, which may produce some bursts of squally rain and gusty winds.

Behind the cold front, numerous wintry showers will develop as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs, generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Several troughs / occlusions embedded in the northwesterly flow will enhance the shower risk, providing some more organised bands of showers at times. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, primarily over open seas and near adjacent coasts.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-01-16

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 19 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 20 Jan 2019

ISSUED 19:53 UTC Fri 18 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An isolated lightning strike or two may be possible from various showers affecting southwest Britain as the upper trough disrupts and slides southeastwards towards northern France.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-01-19

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 22 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 23 Jan 2019

ISSUED 20:05 UTC Mon 21 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Disrupting upper trough will continue dig across mainland Europe, forming a cut-off upper low. The net result is the more mobile northwesterly flow begins to slow/stall, with limited eastward progress by Tuesday night. 

With a cold front having cleared through during the early hours of Tuesday, the post-frontal environment is characterised by cold air advecting across relatively warm seas. This will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE, with numerous wintry showers developing over open seas and then pushed well-inland by both strong northwesterly steering flow and also embedded troughs in the flow aiding greater organisation. A few lightning strikes, gusty winds and small hail (amongst pre-existing rain, sleet and snow) will be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-01-22

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The sky is black around here and everywhere is white with hailstones... Wnd it looks like something is starting to kick off, just off the North Wales coast! ⛈️:yahoo:

8DF920D7-3E1F-4FED-B7AD-0E9D2C3309C4.png

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 23 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 24 Jan 2019

ISSUED 20:47 UTC Tue 22 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A series of small-scale low pressure centres are expected to linger over the North Sea on Wednesday, underneath the near-stationary upper trough. These will be associated with clusters of wintry showers, which may produce a few lightning strikes given a couple hundred J/kg CAPE.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-01-23

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 Jan 2019

ISSUED 20:29 UTC Fri 25 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will move eastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, accompanied by a frontal system. The warm sector will be characterised by a shallow warm, moist layer and marked dry intrusion aloft. The cold front may exhibit elements of line convection, given strong shear and slight wind veer along the front - capable of producing brief bursts of heavy rain and squally winds. However, weak instability and saturated profiles suggests any lightning activity is rather unlikely.

The post-frontal environment carries the greatest potential for deep convection, as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs, generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers are expected to develop between the cold front and wrap-around occlusion, initially across Ireland during the afternoon and then spreading farther east over England and Wales during the evening and night. A few isolated lightning strikes may be possible. Then later in the night, deep convection will return to N + W Scotland behind the occlusion, as cold Arctic air spreads southwards.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-01-26

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