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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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26 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Hmm, radar showing a big blob of heavyish convection moving up from the channel in my direction. Everything meaningful today has dissipated before it's reached here but this lot seems heavier than the other stuff today so you never know.

Our region isn’t supposed to be in with a proper chance until later this evening. But you never know could go either way...

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 13 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 14 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:55 UTC Sun 12 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough axis over eastern England first thing Monday morning will migrate eastwards to the Baltic Sea by Tuesday morning. Cold air aloft atop SSTs and diurnal heating will generate several hundred J/kg CAPE, with subtle forcing aloft and low-level convergence playing a key role in generating scattered showers, some capable of sporadic lightning. These will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, especially over SE England and eastern English Channel - but by the afternoon the main focus will be eastern England. Slight warm nose at 700mb may cause some showers to struggle to maintain sufficient convective depth for lightning.

 
The strongest cells may produce small hail (pea-sized) and wind gusts up to 40mph. Slow storm-motion and elements of shower training may result in some local surface water issues. One or two funnel clouds may also be possible, enhanced by low-level convergence. Most showers will decay during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides and heights rise aloft.
 

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Well, that huge blob of rain did indeed make it here at 8pm and has only just cleared. Was pretty heavy, but no sparks. I still enjoyed the heavy rain though.

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Good chance of HP supercells sweeping east with associated golf ball  hail ,strobe  lightening   and derecho winds tomorrow  😁

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Well yet another thunderstorm warning today...and once again absolutely nothing, not even a drop of drizzle let alone anything decent...still no storm since sept 2016...its literally incredible how we always miss them, incredible.

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Storm & Convective Forecast

stormmap_130818.thumb.png.48e421ab98e809ce2d3809310e61f973.png

Issued 2018-08-13 05:48:04
Valid: 13/08/2018 00z to 14/08/2018 00z

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MONDAY 13TH AUG 2018

Synopsis

Upper trough towards the eastern side of the UK this morning will drift away eastwards into the Low Countries this afternoon, weak ridge building across the west, shallow surface low situated over south North Sea at noon, with associated wrap around occlusion close to east coast of England, the low deepening a little as it moves east across Denmark by midnight. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms likely to develop across eastern England this afternoon.

... E ENGLAND ...

Models indicate surface breeze convergence / moisture pooling not far inland of east coast of England this afternoon, steeper lapse rates towards the east closer to colder air aloft of exiting upper trough and scope for some surface heating will generate sufficient instability combined with lift of convergence to support heavy showers and increasingly into the afternoon a few thunderstorms too. Steering flow towards eastern UK will be fairly slack, so main threat will be slow-moving showers/storms bringing a risk of localised flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Sun has made an appearance here breaking through the clouds, feeling very steamy this certainly has enhanced the potential if it continues

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Been some very dark clouds around, as well as a heavy shower earlier but no lightning to speak of as yet

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36 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Been some very dark clouds around, as well as a heavy shower earlier but no lightning to speak of as yet

Very heavy rain now

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Slow-moving heavy rainfall developing overhead (nr Malton, N.Yorks) then moving away SSE. Looks stormy on radar as it's approaching Hull.

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I have just experienced some of the heaviest rainfall I have ever seen.... biblical! The skies looked like this just beforehand. We also had lightning and thunder overhead. 

20180813_140654.jpg

Edited by Freeman

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Just now, Freeman said:

I have just experienced some of the heaviest rainfall I have ever seen.... biblical! The skies looked lile this jusy beforehand. We also had lightning and thunder overhead. 

20180813_140654.jpg

Wouldn't be suprised if it formed a tornado the rotation was insane!!!

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