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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I'm quite interested in tomorrow. The modelling is suggestive of possible convective activity through afternoon up through Wales, parts of the W Midlands and up into N England.

Like today, was expected nothing occurred same for tomorrow i reckon 

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40 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Like today, was expected nothing occurred same for tomorrow i reckon 

How do you mean? No storms are / were expected in Cambridgeshire today

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Nothing there!

"Re-issued due to a technical problem"

Technical glitch. Phew!

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 Not sure about tomorrow now. Seems like the Cloud may not clear enough before the best instability window passes. 

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On another note had some rather heavy rain from the warm front earlier, was quite surprised.. better than drizzle any day.  

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7 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Not sure about tomorrow now. Seems like the Cloud may not clear enough before the best instability window passes. 

Metoffice still going for a chance of slow moving, thundery downpours this afternoon. As you say, just hope we can get the clearance early enough to allow a decent amount of energy to build.

 

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7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Metoffice still going for a chance of slow moving, thundery downpours this afternoon. As you say, just hope we can get the clearance early enough to allow a decent amount of energy to build.

 

Sun has already broken through here. That has been the standout thing since late April, hardly any sunless days. 

Euro 0z looks interesting

Precipitation EURO4 Su 12.08.2018 18 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Su 12.08.2018 21 GMT

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16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Sun has already broken through here. That has been the standout thing since late April, hardly any sunless days. 

Euro 0z looks interesting

Precipitation EURO4 Su 12.08.2018 18 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Su 12.08.2018 21 GMT

Arome showing some tasty looking showers breaking out this afternoon too in a similar corridor up through North Wales and NW England. Encouraging that clearance is already taking place. Still overcast here, but shouldn't be long for the clearance here based on your report. Could be an interesting afternoon.

Edited by Dexter

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Wow, looks like my reverse psychology worked. The WRF this morning is amazing now. Back to showing over  700 j/kg of CAPE  and now showing an interesting backing of the steering Linds to more of an SSE direction this afternoon. I think we are good to go.  Incidentally the WRF is already 2°C down on the current temperature.  

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Storm & Convective Forecast

stormmap_120818.thumb.png.2d7eef4160b24c11062c6947100d2343.png

Issued 2018-08-11 23:47:55
Valid: 12/08/2018 00z to 13/108/2018 00z

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUNDAY 12TH AUG 2018

Synopsis

Upper trough embedded within in westerly jet will move east from Ireland across the UK on Sunday. A waving cold front will slowly progress east on forward side of this trough, parallel to a belt of modest SWly flow aloft. Pulses of heavy and perhaps thundery rain moving NE along front will shift east from Wales and SW England towards eastern England through the day, cold front not reaching eastern England until late evening, in wake of front heavy showers and thunderstorms may develop across the west.

… SW ENGLAND, WALES, NW ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND …

Pulses of heavy rain moving NE across SW England, Wales and NW England during the morning, ahead/along waving cold front moving in from the west, may be driven by pockets of strong enough mid-level convection to produce isolated lightning strikes at times. There is a risk of localised flooding from the heavier convectively-driven downpours.

The heavier convective burst of rainfall and isolated lightning risk will ease for through the morning, as lead impulse moving NE enhancing convection weakens and the surface front moves away eastwards. However, post-frontal airmass will be characterised by steep lapse rates as cold mid-levels spread aloft with advancement east of upper trough, surface heating will destabilise moist airmass which, combined with forecast N-S surface breeze convergence inland of above areas creating lift, will support heavy showers and some thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, focused near convergence, though may develop with orographic lift elsewhere too. Vertical shear will be weak (0-6km 20-30 knts), so main risk will be localised flooding where storms train along convergence, along with hail too.

… CENTRAL S + SE ENGLAND …

Further east, cold front will arrive from the west into the afternoon, with potential for another impulse in the upper flow moving NE to generate another wave or two along the frontal boundary, which will serve to enhance lift and generate pulses of heavy convective rainfall with perhaps some embedded thundery activity, again, main risk will be localised flooding.

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Thunderstorm warning issued for Merseyside,sun trying to break through now

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Radar suggests the front is further east than forecast. Saying that the radar thinks it's raining here and it's as dry as bone. Little chance of much cricket today if any? Seems I'm wrong on the cricket

Edited by The PIT

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Good luck everyone today, those in the forecast area and those who have an outside chance. Stay positive and root for others if luck isn't on your side. Hoping to see some good posts on it today fingers crossed.

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Some convection post front,seem to have aquired  scud ,interesting afternoon  me thinks 

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 Sun is out strong. 21.8°C, much warmer than forecast. Got to be good for later. 

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UKWW risk diminished overnight on account of a slower approach of the forcing mech for the SE - but on the flip CW has shifted the lower portion of the slight risk zone upwards over our area and reckon there’s a slightly greater risk

Don't know whether to be excited or not 🙂

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Oo what’s this??!

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 uniform overcast stratus crud here , no sign of any solar input, slighty humid feel though,  just not feeling it here today 

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4 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Heading into liverpool now

It's moving northwards and over the Irish Sea, it's going to miss Liverpool.

Edited by Weather-history

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