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Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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51 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Im to the south , we missed it all must be very,very localised, sunny here still!

I decided to chase that storm that’s just hit north of Spalding! Big mistake, I thought my car was going to get smashed, hail the size of marbles came down and some magnificent CG lightning! Looks like more incoming for this area too. Heading back southbound now! 

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Nice half hour of thunder and lightning here just north of Cheltenham

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Great storm just rolled through here. Didn’t know they were forecast as the outlook has been too boring to be checking each day! 

Noticed some flashes in the distance at the start of a run I just left on, got halfway and had to head back home as the CGs were getting too close for comfort. Was near enough sprinting to get back before it hit properly 

774C0034-4399-4717-A7F2-3FABDF4D7FD7.jpeg

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Nice storm just passed right overhead moving east. Loud thunder, CG and CC lightning, hail and gusty winds. Dark low cloud base with plenty of scud. Wasn't really expecting it to reach over here today I have to say. Still going now.

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 25 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 26 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:56 UTC Fri 24 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough will sit over the North Sea during Saturday, placing the British Isles on the rear-side under a northwesterly flow aloft. Cold air atop warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates and generate several hundred J/kg CAPE over the North Sea. A few scattered showers will likely push close to or just inland over Norfolk and E Suffolk on Saturday morning / early afternoon, which may produce a few lightning strikes - a low-end SLGT has been introduced to cover this risk, which should diminish by 14z.

 
Elsewhere, a few showers will likely develop but with weaker instability any lightning activity will tend to be rather isolated. That said, stronger shear will exist further west, which may be enough to compensate for the weak CAPE for some (limited) lightning activity - but in general, increasing subsidence will develop aloft as the afternoon wears on courtesy of upper ridging spreading from the west.
 
With surface winds easing towards Saturday evening, a few showers may develop during the evening / first part of the night in response to low-level convergence, anywhere from eastern Scotland down to East Anglia, mainly close to the coast and then drifting offshore. Lightning potential seems rather restricted given increasing capping aloft.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-25

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It looks highly likely I'm going to go a whole summer without a single day of thunder for the first time since I started recording the weather!

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Rumbles of thunder a few minutes ago here. Very dark CB passed partially over with a small gust front. Nice rainbow but no rain here. Feels thundery.

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Serious storms developing in association with that Biscay trough. I’ve read that there is a marginal chance it will get as far as south-eastern counties - but nobody’s hanging their hat on it enough to put out a forecast

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I'll be very surprised if that makes it here.

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Thunderstorms (albeit only a 30% probability) forecast on both the Gatwick and Lydd airport TAFs between midnight and 0700 tonight.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:21 UTC Tue 28 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Shortwave over Biscay continues to destabilise the mid-levels over the coming hours, with sporadic pulses of rain moving NE-wards across south and southeast England through this evening and overnight. Most lightning activity will likely remain over France where instability is greater, but a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible in parts of SE England. 

 
Later in the night, steepening lapse rates associated with the approaching upper trough will bring a marginal threat for some isolated / sporadic lightning into NW Scotland, as scattered showers move in from the Atlantic.
 
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:46 UTC Tue 28 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Showery bursts of rain continue across SE England and East Anglia on Wednesday morning as a piece of upper forcing clears to the NE. Lightning activity is questionable given weak instability (more likely over France / Belgium etc), with some rather heavy rain possible over Kent/Sussex in particular. Any rain should clear to the North Sea by early afternoon.

 
Farther north cold mid-levels, associated with the upper trough, atop SSTs will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE with several showers affecting NW Scotland and the Northern Isles. Some isolated / sporadic lightning will be possible here.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-29

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 Isle of Man metar currently reporting funnel cloud in the vicinity. About the most exciting thing that has happened in this last 3 weeks of nothing boring rubbish. 

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On 28/08/2018 at 20:48, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:46 UTC Tue 28 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Showery bursts of rain continue across SE England and East Anglia on Wednesday morning as a piece of upper forcing clears to the NE. Lightning activity is questionable given weak instability (more likely over France / Belgium etc), with some rather heavy rain possible over Kent/Sussex in particular. Any rain should clear to the North Sea by early afternoon.

 
Farther north cold mid-levels, associated with the upper trough, atop SSTs will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE with several showers affecting NW Scotland and the Northern Isles. Some isolated / sporadic lightning will be possible here.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-29

This forecast for the heavy rain here was spot on.

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Well, this is boring isn't it? This summer has provided a few storms, but we've had very lengthy gaps of nothingness in between/months of inactivity and THAT disgusting heat. Hopefully after this quiet period September delivers the goods.

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Very quiet spell it has to be said! But actually some half decent convection out there today to our north and east, a few showers have begun to develop over the past hour or so which I can see from here.

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OHH GRRR bleeping hell! Looks like the 12Zs have removed covective chances for Friday morning. All the sub -25 500 hpa air and CAPE has gone for my location! Hope it’s just a case of missing balloon data on the 12zs lol. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Sep 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Sep 2018

ISSUED 20:00 UTC Wed 05 Sep 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Two areas of interest exist during this forecast period on Thursday. The main risk of lightning will come courtesy of a cut-off upper low drifting southeastwards across Scotland, the associated cold pool atop warm SSTs generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. A few isolated / sporadic lightning strikes will be possible with scattered showers over Scotland and northern England, though perhaps moreso over the North Sea by Thursday night.

 
Farther south, a weak cold front will be drifting southeastwards across England and Wales, but may be engaged by a jet streak rounding the western and southern flank of the upper low. There could be an increase in showery precipitation on Thursday evening over the Home Counties and East Anglia depending on the phasing of the front and upper support, though even so lightning remains questionable.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-09-06

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