Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

[Nick F]

Quite a potent heavy shower passed through here in west London recently, heavy rain and very gusty winds with it.

[carl1980]

Thunder storm in kirkby Merseyside 

[Chris.R]

Ok my reverse psychology worked. A lovely thunderstorm here now. A few +CGs as well. 

Edited September 21, 2018 by Chris.R

[IanR]

3 distant rumbles here, that its

[Despicable Weather]

Lovely thunderstorm passed over Liverpool area beginning with sheet lightning and loud rumbling thunder at 4pm to go on to give a few CG's and spectacular cracks with gusting winds and short sharp heavy raindrops which led into a few more cracks with a heavy hail shower dropping peas by 4.45pm then it was all over with blue skies and breaking the clouds. Still pretty blowy out there, fantastic 24hrs of weather  

[Weather-history]

Convectively active day

 

[Mokidugway]

Convection pushing up over Irish sea looks like some beefy showers for the north west  would of made a beauty  of a snow streamer in winter

Edited September 23, 2018 by Mokidugway

[lassie23]

What a rubbish storm season, it got off to a good start but one storm in June despite all the heat and humidity and that's it, what a loa of old ****

[Chris.R]

7 thunder days this year, around average. Interestingly though for the first time I can remember we have had a thunder event in every month since May. Also all but one of those thunder events were from polar maritime or ocean effect setups. You can keep your plumes down South. 

Edited September 24, 2018 by Chris.R

[karyo]

32 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

7 thunder days this year, around average. Interestingly though for the first time I can remember we have had a thunder event in every month since May. Also all but one of those thunder events were from polar maritime or ocean effect setups. You can keep your plumes down South. 

Consider yourself lucky! No storms at all here this summer. A season to forget!

Hopefully we will get thundersnow this December!

[liamtellis]

9 minutes ago, karyo said:

Consider yourself lucky! No storms at all here this summer. A season to forget!

Hopefully we will get thundersnow this December!

Nothing much here in Cardiff either - we had a day in June and that's about it! 

[Dorsetbred]

5 hours ago, Chris.R said:

7 thunder days this year, around average. Interestingly though for the first time I can remember we have had a thunder event in every month since May. Also all but one of those thunder events were from polar maritime or ocean effect setups. You can keep your plumes down South. 

It's actually been a poor year down here for plumes, as most have missed us and either gone over the southwest or mainly over the southeast. So roll on next year even with the heat this year it lacked a certain something to ignite the skies..

[Another Kent clipper]

There aren't expletives to describe how frustrating 2018 has been for me, and all of us let's be honest.  The entire UK can be placed in the no storms club this year.

Firstly

exhibit A: Stuck in work till 9pm, was all but gone by the time I'd driven to the east coast

Exhibit B: An elevated all-nighter makes it all the way to stoke before de-electrifying.  No sleep. No lightning.

 

Exhibit C :

my favourite type of setup: blowy, squally, anywherey.  Anywhere but Manchester.  But close enough for rumbles to be heard.  And yes, if I wasn't at work I'd be on the motorway

 

Edited September 25, 2018 by Another Kent clipper
Grammar

[Wivenswold]

I'm about 40 miles north of you and yet I've had a pretty good summer for storms. Okay so they tailed off July/August but I witnessed about 4 good ones this year. My wife even named our new summer house "Thunder Cabin" due to the amount of time I was in there watching passing storms. So, no, it' hasn't been a poor summer for everyone.

[Chris.R]

 Maybe the chance of a plume next mid week. Reminds me of the 11th Oct 2006. That was fun. 

[convector]

On 05/10/2018 at 12:50, Chris.R said:

 Maybe the chance of a plume next mid week. Reminds me of the 11th Oct 2006. That was fun. 

i was just coming here to say that - after such a terrible storm season it would be a blessing to get anything thundery at this point.  really hope this stays on the cards 

[Chris.R]

 It was looking a bit shaky later on yesterday, thought I had jinxed it. Glad to say it’s back on now though and it is slightly upgrading on every run. At least something to keep an eye on at last. 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 10 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 11 Oct 2018

ISSUED 20:14 UTC Tue 09 Oct 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low over northern Iberia (the remnants of the rainfall event over southern Britain last Saturday) will weaken and be absorbed into the forward side of the main upper trough approaching from the Atlantic. An increasingly moist airmass will advect from France across southern Britain during Wednesday evening and night, destabilising as subtle upper forcing engages with the moisture plume. 

 

Sporadic bursts of showery rain will likely develop over the English Channel and portions of England and Wales during Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning. A few hundred J/kg CAPE accompanied with subtle forcing may allow some sporadic lightning to occur, moreso on the rear (western) side of any showery rain, but unlikely to be too widespread. 

 

Naturally there is some uncertainty as to where any lightning may occur - but two main areas of interest might be E Devon / Dorset / Somerset / Wiltshire into SE Wales during the night, then another area towards SE England / Home Counties by Thursday morning at the end of the forecast period. However, neither look convincing enough to warrant an upgrade at this stage.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-10-10

Edited October 9, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Allseasons-Si]

Whilst we (mostly) have been paying attention to what's going on across the pond in America with Hurricane Michael,there has been a storm in the channel,moreso there is a mass of storms  in central/east France,are these heading our way?

[Mapantz]

It doesn't look like it. Modelling takes the showery rain through Devon/Somerset. Nothing exciting likely to happen, again.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Seems like them storms in France are the remnants of the Mediterranean madness yesterday and last night. I was watching alcudia bay webcam last night, and it looked absolutely spectacular. For hours on end, non stop anvil crawlers from anywhere east of north and south! A shame about the devastating flooding it all caused though, which I’m sure people are aware of. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Allseasons-Si]

Sorry.i meant central/west France

been up since quarter to five this morning.

[Hodgheg]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Seems like them storms in France are the remnants of the Mediterranean madness yesterday and last night. I was watching alcudia bay webcam last night, and it looked absolutely spectacular. For hours on end, non stop anvil crawlers from anywhere east of north and south! A shame about the devastating flooding it all caused though, which I’m sure people are aware of. 

Had some nice isolated storms there the other week. Doesn't it just show the true impact of such storms though? The most spectacular storm iv'e ever seen was on mainland Spain near Reus. Our plane landed just before the storm arrived, seeing lightning strikes from the aircraft was quite shocking. We then had to wade ankle deep through water off of our coach into the hotel, followed by an evening of spectacular anvil crawlers. Finally on our way back home, we had flash flooding in the street again, followed by the most amazing take off at sunset with brilliant CB clouds in the sunset. I have photos, the first ones I uploaded to netweather. 

 

Anyway back onto topic, we have a strange almost summer like set up tomorrow. Not holding my breath but lets see. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by John Hodgson

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 Oct 2018

ISSUED 21:20 UTC Wed 10 Oct 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A complex pattern exists for Thursday, with various areas of interest for convective development. Firstly, the residual moisture plume (having advected northwards from France on Wednesday night) may continue to be engaged by a shortwave, as it continues to drift NE-wards across northern and eastern England on Thursday morning. Showery outbreaks of rain are likely in places with the potential for a few sporadic lightning strikes, but difficult to be specific as to where (a blend of model guidance would suggest the Midlands or East Anglia).

 

Next, the attention turns to a rather active cold front, already over the Republic of Ireland on Thursday morning, which will continue to push eastwards across the remainder of Britain during the afternoon and evening hours. On the forward side of the main Atlantic upper trough, the environment will be strongly sheared, with some 50kts DLS, alongside reasonable low-level moisture (dewpoints of 13-14C).

This in itself should allow some line segments to develop along the front, capable of very heavy rain and squally winds in places. This activity may become further enhanced by diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass across central and eastern Britain, ahead of the cold front on Thursday afternoon. CAPE is rather marginal, and forecast profiles look a little saturated close to the frontal boundary, but forcing and shear may be enough to compensate for some isolated lightning. In either case, given the sheared environment and low cloud base, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out - moreso across England during the afternoon hours.

 

With stronger forcing evolving during the evening hours, there is the potential for some elevated thunderstorms to develop close to or over SE England just ahead of the cold front, which may also clip the coast of East Anglia - a SLGT may be issued for these areas if confidence in placement increases (since most lightning activity will likely be offshore).

 

Scattered showers may also develop over Ireland in the post-frontal environment during the afternoon hours, with a low risk of lightning.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-10-11

 

 

http://www.estofex.org/

Edited October 10, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Kent clippers r us

anyone seen any lightning down that way?