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How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate?

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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Love this thread, nice to discuss the climate without having man made global warming rammed down your throat.

It's only logical to look at other factors that could affect our weather, and solar minimum or maximum is certainly a contributing factor.

Just so happens we are indeed in a low sunspot cycle, and colder snowier winters should become more prevalent in the next 10yrs if you go on previous cycles. 

Well I wasn't the one who started questioning the Ghg effect and spreading fake news. As a climate scientist I feel I should point these things out.

But its fine to have denier rhetoric rammed down your throat isn't it. If someone started telling you that everything you work for is a lie then you would step in and say something wouldn't you?

Just because you don't like what you hear doesn't mean you should just brush it to one side. It is entirely plausible that low solar activity could cause colder winters in NW Europe, but that shoudn't put the potential effect of CO2 to one side. So direct your statements to BFTP and the like, not me.

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I have no doubts at all that we are experiencing GW but I also believe the planet has been even warmer in the past and still the NH had very cold winters. Just look at our tiny segment last March and that in spring! Much of Eastern Europe in recent years and the USA has experienced severe winter cold that has lasted for weeks. Japan has recorded record snowfall. So there is ample evidence to show that even recent times have not precluded cold winters in the NH despite GW, just the Placing has eluded our tiny patch except last spring.

if without the effects of very low sunspot activity, and possibly entering a Grand  Minimum, there have been severe NH winters then surely having these conditions will increase the likelihood of a prolonged severe winter in our backyard despite the existence of GW which I fully recognise.

Be it this year or next I am confident that I will see a very snowy winter again.

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well I wasn't the one who started questioning the Ghg effect and spreading fake news. As a climate scientist I feel I should point these things out.

But its fine to have denier rhetoric rammed down your throat isn't it. If someone started telling you that everything you work for is a lie then you would step in and say something wouldn't you?

Just because you don't like what you hear doesn't mean you should just brush it to one side. It is entirely plausible that low solar activity could cause colder winters in NW Europe, but that shoudn't put the potential effect of CO2 to one side. So direct your statements to BFTP and the like, not me.

whoa there! Like I said, keep it nice and civilised!

I'm not saying that the GHG effect isn't real, and the collateral impacts upon numerous feedback mechanisms aren't necessarily true. What I AM saying is that we seem to be about to enter a period which is uncharted in terms of modern measurement techniques and may add to the evidence for debate, or even throw in some oddballs which weren't expected.

Irrespective of any of this, we should be getting our human house in order so that if the trend is irrevocable then it takes a lot longer to get to "critical" than some hypotheses suggest.

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12 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

Not sure about that:

24_co2-graph-021116-768px.jpg

https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-carbon-dioxide/

There is clearly a cycle though on the scale of 10s of thousands of years. I assume this is because of CO2 becoming sequestered in ice during the ice age epochs caused by the orbital variations of the Earth (Milankovitch cycles).

 

 

aye, like I said, that fact re Ice age in time of high CO2 could have been incorrect, or have Nasa changed their graph 😉 

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It is really unfortunate that this thread is turned into yet another pointless climate change thread. Especially since it is guaranteed to just be an endless circle of argument.

Ultimately, as said before, my understanding of a solar minimum is that through stratospheric interactions, it can steer the polar arm of the jet stream away from Western Europe (blocking) and thus allow colder air from the arctic and Russia to penetrate into Europe and sometimes all the way to the British isles. I'd suppose it is a similar behaviour to a text book El Nino interaction (doesn't go to plan more times than not) on the polar arm of the jet, but I haven't really compared the two. It is proposed that during more prolonged minimums in the past that this caused successive colder winters in Europe. But I really don't want to get in to predicting future solar cycles and I would suggest that many people are muddying the waters in here by referencing it. 

Just what threshold is needed for this to be more of a dominant feature and how it weighs up against other aspects, I'm not sure, but it would seem through correlation that a cold winter usually does hit Europe during or around a solar minimum (i refer to the minimum of a solar cycle, not any grand minimums and the like). This seems to happen irrespective of the ENSO state being neutral, El Nino or La Nina. I'm really not sure of how these interactions play together and which combinations are more suited or not. Perhaps it would take @Tamara or someone to clarify the specifics 🙂 

Unclear if this winter is the minimum of the present solar cycle or if it will be for next winter. I suppose that, in part anyway, will be answered by observations until November or so.

 

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19 minutes ago, Bobd29 said:

I have no doubts at all that we are experiencing GW but I also believe the planet has been even warmer in the past and still the NH had very cold winters. Just look at our tiny segment last March and that in spring! Much of Eastern Europe in recent years and the USA has experienced severe winter cold that has lasted for weeks. Japan has recorded record snowfall. So there is ample evidence to show that even recent times have not precluded cold winters in the NH despite GW, just the Placing has eluded our tiny patch except last spring.

if without the effects of very low sunspot activity, and possibly entering a Grand  Minimum, there have been severe NH winters then surely having these conditions will increase the likelihood of a prolonged severe winter in our backyard despite the existence of GW which I fully recognise.

Be it this year or next I am confident that I will see a very snowy winter again.

That I do agree with and if you look at the below charts you can see that even when the UK in recent times has seen notable cold, even though global temperatures have still been above average.

t2anom_arc-lea_2018_d060.png t2anom_arc-lea_2013_d070.png t2anom_arc-lea_2012_d035.png t2anom_arc-lea_2010_d354.png 

 1st March 2018                                           11th March 2013                                      4th February 2012                                     21st December 2010

t2anom_arc-lea_2010_d009.png 9th January 2010

And I believe we may well see more severe cold in the future and if it does become a theme I expect the arctic and tropics to warm at an even faster rate then what we are seeing to compensate. Will we see 2010 style synoptics make a return? Given the Atlantic SST profile is unfavourable as it stands I am really not sure, as much as I would like to see it.

However I have reason to believe that they may change to something more favourable during the winter. I will post a thread at the start of the winter about my thoughts on the season ahead at the start of November. Hope you will all find it a good read.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Steady people, points can be made without finger jabbing and name calling, believe you me I'm no snowflake and am apt to call a spade a Bl**dy shovel with the best of them.

I bow to your climate scientist-ship @feb1991blizzard BUT just as technically bumble bees cannot fly, according to physics, I'm quite excited to see what this solar minimum brings, especially if it may be a prolonged solar slumber, whether it is predictable or not!

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's the snowflake, I-phone, don't do as I do generation for you, they are allowed to give it but start crying when you give it back.

Nah I just like pointing out the difference between fact and fiction, something beyond certain people... and no I don't have an i-phone so poor effort at a dig.

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ding ding! end of round one!

this thread wasn't designed to get folk fighting, let's just put the figures, facts, hopes and hypotheses on the table and allow each other to extrapolate and understand?

Please no more digs either way, whatever the three letter acronym you want to promote! Ta

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40 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well I wasn't the one who started questioning the Ghg effect and spreading fake news. As a climate scientist I feel I should point these things out.

But its fine to have denier rhetoric rammed down your throat isn't it. If someone started telling you that everything you work for is a lie then you would step in and say something wouldn't you?

Just because you don't like what you hear doesn't mean you should just brush it to one side. It is entirely plausible that low solar activity could cause colder winters in NW Europe, but that shoudn't put the potential effect of CO2 to one side. So direct your statements to BFTP and the like, not me.

Nowt to do with that Quicksilver, and there is the problem with the debate. I've not got a problem with scientists like yourself putting forward your theories on man made global warmings, it's just I don't agree with it. 

The earth has gone through different cycles of extreme temperatures way before man started pumping C02 in to the atmosphere, and I can't look past that when seeing that we are in a warming period now.

What caused the warming periods before man made C02, like wise, what caused ice ages? The only thing I know is, it wasn't man that caused it!

Anyway, I'm no expert, just a simple weather nut with a liking for cold and snow, hence why  I'm interetsed in solar minimum and the link to cold weather.

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8 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Steady people, points can be made without finger jabbing and name calling, believe you me I'm no snowflake and am apt to call a spade a Bl**dy shovel with the best of them.

I bow to your climate scientist-ship @feb1991blizzard BUT just as technically bumble bees cannot fly, according to physics, I'm quite excited to see what this solar minimum brings, especially if it may be a prolonged solar slumber, whether it is predictable or not!

 

Nope, urban myth.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bumblebees-cant-fly/

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Nowt to do with that Quicksilver, and there is the problem with the debate. I've not got a problem with scientists like yourself putting forward your theories on man made global warmings, it's just I don't agree with it. 

The earth has gone through different cycles of extreme temperatures way before man started pumping C02 in to the atmosphere, and I can't look past that when seeing that we are in a warming period now.

What caused the warming periods before man made C02, like wise, what caused ice ages? The only thing I know is, it wasn't man that caused it!

Anyway, I'm no expert, just a simple weather nut with a liking for cold and snow, hence why  I'm interetsed in solar minimum and the link to cold weather.

As I mentioned it's Milankovitch cycles over 1000s of years but we'll save that for another thread....

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4 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Nowt to do with that Quicksilver, and there is the problem with the debate. I've not got a problem with scientists like yourself putting forward your theories on man made global warmings, it's just I don't agree with it. 

The earth has gone through different cycles of extreme temperatures way before man started pumping C02 in to the atmosphere, and I can't look past that when seeing that we are in a warming period now.

What caused the warming periods before man made C02, like wise, what caused ice ages? The only thing I know is, it wasn't man that caused it!

Anyway, I'm no expert, just a simple weather nut with a liking for cold and snow, hence why  I'm interetsed in solar minimum and the link to cold weather.

 

Milankovitch cycles. There is a very high correlation between the rate of change of global ice volume and the variations in insolation owing to Milankovitch cycles (orbital variations of the Earth).

http://courses.washington.edu/pcc589/2009/readings/Roe.pdf

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

this is some sort of record, I can be wrong on netweather more times than I can at home when discussing things with Mrs C!!

OK, the point was that there are things in the world which don't make obvious sense and don't always strictly follow the generally accepted rules of whatever branch of science you wish to mention. I was trying to use a parallel which said there may be factors as yet unknown which may influence how our weather and ultimately climate may change given an extended solar minimum. Which aforementioned extended solar minimum has yet to materialise and verify, but it is a popular belief that this may in fact be the case. M'lud 😉 

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anyone for a thread on Milankovitch cycles, or is there one already?

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Just now, JeffC said:

anyone for a thread on Milankovitch cycles, or is there one already?

Start one up, it's a great topic! :)

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8 minutes ago, JeffC said:

anyone for a thread on Milankovitch cycles, or is there one already?

I don't think there is, I'd be happy to start one later on, it's a very interesting topic I'm sure we'd all agree. I did an essay on it during my MSc so I can recover the notes and put them on here.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I don't think there is, I'd be happy to start one later on, it's a very interesting topic I'm sure we'd all agree. I did an essay on it during my MSc so I can recover the notes and put them on here.

Aye, crack on, sounds good...

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The upcoming Solar Min is a fascinating subject, in and of itself...

I think it's fair to say that most of us who have more than a modicum of scientific awareness will almost universally accept that solar fluctuations will affect the planet's weather and climate? As with Milankovitch Cycle - how can they not? 

However, what they won't do is provide a way of 'disproving' AGW theory...Jigsaw puzzles and pieces come to mind?

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So far this thread has been kept open and allowed in the general section but then inevitably turns into a climate slanging match.

This is exactly why we have the rules we have in the climate section.

Sorry, but closing this now. Feel free to start another one in the climate area keeping to the rules in that section.

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