Possible new UK all time record

[ARW WeatherMan]

Made this thread last week about this coming week but was closed due to supposedly there being little chance of it happening 

Current predictions even now by netweather are suggesting near record temperatures tomorrow or Friday 

What is your guys thoughts? 

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by ARW WeatherMan

[95 Degrees]

Not this heatwave but 35c will likely be breached in the London area tomorrow, later next week there's a better chance that the all time record could be threatened but will need the hottest possible source of air for that to happen.

Edited July 25, 2018 by 95 Degrees

[95 Degrees]

Netherlands record seriously under threat tomorrow.

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, 95 Degrees said:

Netherlands record seriously under threat tomorrow.

Definitely perhaps a 39 there tomorrow afternoon! 

[toggerob]

Meto yesterday saying the stats are 40% of breaking the highest July record, 20% breaking the hottest recorded temperature across the UK.

[summer blizzard]

Uppers are 18C so even with the dry ground it's hard to see that kind of lapse rate, especially with lowish pressure.

 

 

If the forecast charts to day 10 come off though (1025mb and 15c uppers) then we may begin to make q serious threat.

[ARW WeatherMan]

Met office are currently saying a 30% chance of beating the 38.5oC Mark on Friday

Personally I don't think it will even hit 37oC but I remember thinking that uusg before we hit the 36.7oC making it the hottest July day a few years back 

I am a bit done with heat now and I'm a sunworshipper but I'm more just interested in the statistics at the minute 

Driest start to the summer since 1961 is it? And a chance the hottest July ever recorded could be broken too is getting me excited 

[ARW WeatherMan]

59 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Meto yesterday saying the stats are 40% of breaking the highest July record, 20% breaking the hottest recorded temperature across the UK.

See even we have seen a different percentage, I saw 30% on the BBC today but even 20% is better than 0%! 

[Nick L]

I think there's a greater than 50% chance of the July record going. Anywhere from Peterborough to London and east of this could see 36-37c. I think a 30% chance of the all time record going is on the high side, I'd give it 10%.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I think there's a greater than 50% chance of the July record going. Anywhere from Peterborough to London and east of this could see 36-37c. I think a 30% chance of the all time record going is on the high side, I'd give it 10%.

Guaranteed to see a few Netatmo weather stations showing 45°C in those locations. 

[Mark wheeler]

Maybe the record overnight minimum will go .

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1022200562614292480/video/1

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Maybe the record overnight minimum will go .

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1022200562614292480/video/1

That's a midnight chart. Unlikely!

[Mark wheeler]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's a midnight chart. Unlikely!

Yes for some reason I wasn’t think straight and misinterpret it as the low , happy to be corrected .

Edited July 25, 2018 by Mark wheeler

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's a midnight chart. Unlikely!

GFS was showing temps around 24c overnight as well could see the minimum record going this week if they are right

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS was showing temps around 24c overnight as well could see the minimum record going this week if they are right

I actually just looked at the UKV, it's got central London at 24/25c through until dawn on Friday. Christ.

[ARW WeatherMan]

It's all very exciting! My room is icy cold with the aircon on but staying at my partners on a second floor flat and I'm overheating just a tad! 

Must be atleast 35oC in here still

[ShinyDave]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I think there's a greater than 50% chance of the July record going. Anywhere from Peterborough to London and east of this could see 36-37c. I think a 30% chance of the all time record going is on the high side, I'd give it 10%.

Always difficult to put a figure on "how likely is it that one weather station out of dozens in this area will produce a number above this" of course.

What does seem clear is that tomorrow and/or Friday will join the pantheon of historically hot days in this country along with 10 August 2003 and 1 July 2015. Obviously it's interesting to see what records if any fall, but the real story is that those are the comparisons. Even by this summer's standards, this is an escalation.

[Snowyowl9]

Already had the all time record back on march 1st coldest march day on record.

[Relativistic]

17 hours ago, ShinyDave said:

Always difficult to put a figure on "how likely is it that one weather station out of dozens in this area will produce a number above this" of course.

What does seem clear is that tomorrow and/or Friday will join the pantheon of historically hot days in this country along with 10 August 2003 and 1 July 2015. Obviously it's interesting to see what records if any fall, but the real story is that those are the comparisons. Even by this summer's standards, this is an escalation.

Not sure you could put today up there with the dates you mentioned. Netweather has today's hottest temperature as 34.4C at Heathrow, which is far from the July record, and even further from August '03. Tomorrow has a better chance.

[Nick L]

Tomorrow is no longer looking as hot as it once was. Likely to be similar temps to today.

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess it will be a case of seeing what happens tomorrow. There airmass is certainly hot enough to push 36/37C but it is a case of cloud cover and showers developing. The fact that there has been quite a bit of cloud here and the temperature has reached 33/34C up here is quite something.

Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today but with slightly higher temperatures at 850hpa and more instability so a case of getting lucky if you do reached those exceptional values.

[DAVID SNOW]

Been mostly sunny here all day(garden) temp 34c, pool 25c

[ShinyDave]

There's definitely the potential to go higher than today, it just might blow up on us. Literally, I guess, seeing as a thundery breakdown would surely be in play if the cloud cover comes in to thwart the run at a July record.

GFS 12Z still showing 34 over Norfolk and I seem to recall that being seen as a conservative model in these scenarios? But the other models seem to go the other way, so... eh. It's surely going to come down to cloud cover or lack thereof, so one way or another tomorrow is likely to be spectacular.

[matty40s]

Just started the car in Towcester , Northants....

 

[Nick L]

16 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Just started the car in Towcester , Northants....

 

Towcesty.