August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.1C +1.7C above normal. We've had some more of this strange wet stuff. Rainfall 14.2mm 21.5% of the monthly average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

17.7C to the 24th... +1.0 (12.8: -3.3)
17.5C to the 25th... +0.9 (12.6: -3.2)
17.4C to the 26th... +0.7 (13.3: -2.4)
17.3C to the 27th... +0.7 (14.6: -0.8)
17.2C to the 28th... +0.7 (15.9: +0.8)
17.2C to the 29th... +0.7 (15.3: 0.0)
17.0C to the 30th... +0.5 (12.6: -2.9)
16.9C to the 31st... +0.5 (12.8: -2.4)
 

The big cool down commences, and a finish below 17C after corrections is now the most likely outcome. Not as dramatically cold an end as some previous runs suggested, but well below average nonetheless.

  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 17.9C +1.5C above normal, Rainfall up to 15.7mm 23.8% of rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

17.8 to the 24th

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like even my 17.2c is too high now may end up about 16.7c after corrections.

 

Edited August 25, 2018 by Snowyowl9

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.8C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.6 to the 25th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.6 to the 25th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.5C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 27.1mm 40.7% of average.

We are still on to beat the 1976 average for summer but getting close now.

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 26th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.4 to the 26th

[The PIT]

Interestingly although we are not very likely to beat the heat of 1976 the period May to August temperature wise is going to be broken by quite abit.

[Summer Sun]

17.3 to the 27th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.3 to the 27th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Estimate from the 06z is a finish of 17C before corrections, but could be 17.0 or 17.1C. No realistic chance of ending up below the 81-10 average at this stage.
It's mainly been the maxima, keeping the CET up slightly higher than was forecast last week.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 17.4C +1C above normal.Rainfall at 27.6mm 41.5% of average

[Summer Sun]

17.2 to the 28th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.2 to the 28th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.3C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.2 to the 29th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.2 to the 28th & 29th

[cheeky_monkey]

On 20/08/2018 at 08:16, cheeky_monkey said:

Edmonton is at 18.7c to the 19th which is 1.6c above normal

Been a massive fall over the last 10 days in Edmonton..now at 14.9c..had some very cold nights as low as -1c and cool days..now here it is 2.2c below normal...looks like staying below normal for the next 10 days also

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.2C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 30th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.1 to the 30th

Edited August 31, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Roger J Smith]

Remember this from 17th of August (only the top portion copied here):

 

To become warmest on record, 18.2 or higher is required.

To match 1976 (17.77) 18.1 is required.

To match second place 1826 (17.6) 17.6 is required. Thus 17.7 to 18.0 achieves second place outright.

To match third place 1995 (17.37) 16.9 is required. Thus 17.0 to 17.5 achieves third place outright.

To match fourth place 2003 (17.33) 16.8 is required. There is no chance of 2018 being fourth outright.

To match fifth place 2006 (17.23) 16.5 is required. Thus 16.6 or 16.7 places 2018 in fifth place outright.

To match sixth place 1846 (17.10) 16.1 is required. Thus 16.2 to 16.4 places 2018 in sixth place outright.

 

The correction will determine third alone, tied third, tied fourth, or fifth alone, I think, 16.5 seems a bit harsh at this point.

I figure they might drop 2018 to 16.7 just to let 2003 stay in fourth. 

[Roger J Smith]

On 27/08/2018 at 03:34, The PIT said:

Interestingly although we are not very likely to beat the heat of 1976 the period May to August temperature wise is going to be broken by quite abit.

Does that refer to your location? For the CET, the current May to August leader (1976) is at 16.35 C. 2018 ties that if August finishes 17.0.

Currently second place is 1947 at 16.15 C. This year only needs 16.2 to tie that, so will finish second alone at any value 16.3 to 16.9. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A max of 20.1C or greater is needed for the CET to finish on 17C before corrections, so that looks pretty likely.

[Snowyowl9]

17c after today cold last night.

Think this summer will end up 5th warmest just a hunch.

[reef]

Hadley is confirmed as 16.6C, a 0.4C downwards correction.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

5th warmest summer on record at 17.27C

Edited September 1, 2018 by reef

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield clocked in at 17C which made the summer the 2nd warmest on record after 1995. The period from May to Aug was the warmest on record here. Rainfall here was the third driest on record.