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August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Today's 06z GFS would have the CET around 20.4C after the first 10 days, and with the Met Office forecasts to the end of August suggesting a continuation of the current weather patterns, it's hard to justify guessing anything other than well above average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    I would like to downgrade my August prediction to 14.4C

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    17.8C and 51mms please

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I'm going for 18C and 30mm of rain

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Today's 06z GFS would have the CET around 20.4C after the first 10 days, and with the Met Office forecasts to the end of August suggesting a continuation of the current weather patterns, it's hard to justify guessing anything other than well above average.

    If we got to that point by the 10th, assuming July finishes on 19.0C after corrections, we'd only need the remaining 21 days of August to average 17.2C for 2018 to be the warmest summer on record.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    18.5*C and 84 mm, please. 

    I have a feeling it could actually be even hotter, maybe even challenge 1995 for the top spot, but there's too much uncertainty with respect to the final week or so of the month, when the longer nights can really take their toll if the weather patterns are and clear with light winds, which has a habit of being the case when the school holidays are nearing their close, leading to a late panic to get out and about ?.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
    2 hours ago, reef said:

    If we got to that point by the 10th, assuming July finishes on 19.0C after corrections, we'd only need the remaining 21 days of August to average 17.2C for 2018 to be the warmest summer on record.

    So realistically even if July doesn't do a 20*C which it wont.  August well could?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    With this summer, who knows.  However, I feel August will be a little cooler and more unsettled than July but still well above average.  I will go for 18.3C and 70mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    This is a summary of the forecasts so far. I will post the usual tables around the 3rd over in the contest scoring thread. Numbers in brackets following CET forecaster name codes are order of entry, not a factor in the EWP portion.

    CET forecasts

    21.5 LG (12) ...20.1 SM (14) ... 19.7 SS (22)

    19.1 PEG (19) ...19.0 EDS (6), JEF (13), ROB (21)

    18.9 LIS (17) GBR (18) ...18.6 STE (42) THU (54) ... 18.5 SIN (52)

    18.4 STEW (24) CHR (28) DEEP (30) J10 (51)

    18.3 PG (3) DAM (38) DON (56)... 18.2 CAP (7)  SEA (36) NOR (39)

    18.1 SNOW (23), BFTV (43) ... 18.0 DWW (9) PIT (49) KMAN (55)

    17.9 RJS (20), CHEZ (26) consensus

    17.8 LEO (4) BOB (15) MWB (41) MIA (48)

    17.7 CPS (10) REEF (40) EMM (47) ... 17.6 PM (8) IRA (31) MB (33) MUL (50)

    17.5 DRS (25) .. 17.4 SB (16) SF (37) DAN (45) ... 17.3 W-H (34) ... 17.2 OWL (29), MET (53)

    16.9 REL (27), 16.7 RAD (2) VIR (44) ... 16.6 ALJ9 (35) ... 16.5 SYED (32)

    15.9 KIR (5) 15.5 TJM (1)

    14.8 Wx26 (11)

    14.4 CHE (46)

    ------------ ---------------

    56 on-time forecasts, consensus (median) 17.9, 

    EWP forecasts

    200 LG ... 112 Wx26 ... 90 EDS

    85 LIS ... 84 SIN ... 78 TJM ... 76 ROB ... 75 DRS, SYED

    74 ALJ9 ... 70 DON ... 67 SF ... 66 REL ... 64.8 CHR ...62 EMM

    56 CAP ... 55 NOR ... 52 PM .. 51 MIA consensus

    50 LEO, REEF, J10 ... 48 JEF .. 47 W-H ... 46 RJS, STE

    45 BFTV ... 43 RAD ... 42 MUL

    40 SM ... 38.5 PG .. 37 SEA ... 36.8 KIR

    33 BOB ... 30 PIT ... 26 CPS ... 25 PEG

    -----------------------

    37 on time forecasts, median for consensus is 51 mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    16.8 and 44mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    late - sorry

    17.9c and 50mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    20 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    17.4C eventually cooling off an exceptionally warm first half.

    Forgot rain. 45mm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

    18.8.c and 35mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    20c, mega thunderstorms end of month woth widespread flash flooding....87mm rainfall.

    This is the tipping point year....wait til Dec ?

    BFTP

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