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August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest


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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Edmonton is at 18.7c to the 19th which is 1.6c above normal

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.0C to the 20th... +1.2 (19.2: +2.5)
18.0C to the 21st... +1.2 (18.4: +2.0)
18.0C to the 22nd... +1.2 (18.0: +1.5)
17.8C to the 23rd... +1.1 (14.1: -2.0)
17.6C to the 24th... +0.9 (12.1: -4.0)
17.4C to the 25th... +0.7 (13.3: -2.5)
17.2C to the 26th... +0.6 (12.7: -3.0)
17.1C to the 27th... +0.5 (13.0: -2.4)
17.0C to the 28th... +0.4 (14.2: -0.9)
16.9C to the 29th... +0.4 (15.1: -0.2)

A big cool down coming after mid week, with possibly the coolest August temperatures since 2014. At this stage, it's even possible that we end up below the 81-10 average after corrections! Who'd have guessed that 3 weeks ago!?

Aug20th.thumb.JPG.3b673076cf9a62b1b6bdf2b6e701538b.JPG  Aug20thMM.thumb.JPG.65c757a1b2620b3495b0b60117dd9f9f.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.0 to the 20th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny old Sheffield still at 18.1C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall at 8.8mm 13.3% of monthly average.

Interestingly here the period May, June, July is drier than 76 86.2mm against 119.5mm

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
19 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.0C to the 20th... +1.2 (19.2: +2.5)
18.0C to the 21st... +1.2 (18.4: +2.0)
18.0C to the 22nd... +1.2 (18.0: +1.5)
17.8C to the 23rd... +1.1 (14.1: -2.0)
17.6C to the 24th... +0.9 (12.1: -4.0)
17.4C to the 25th... +0.7 (13.3: -2.5)
17.2C to the 26th... +0.6 (12.7: -3.0)
17.1C to the 27th... +0.5 (13.0: -2.4)
17.0C to the 28th... +0.4 (14.2: -0.9)
16.9C to the 29th... +0.4 (15.1: -0.2)

A big cool down coming after mid week, with possibly the coolest August temperatures since 2014. At this stage, it's even possible that we end up below the 81-10 average after corrections! Who'd have guessed that 3 weeks ago!?

Aug20th.thumb.JPG.3b673076cf9a62b1b6bdf2b6e701538b.JPG  Aug20thMM.thumb.JPG.65c757a1b2620b3495b0b60117dd9f9f.JPG

A big shame for this to happen at the final hurdle. Pure rotten luck.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
11 minutes ago, cheese said:

A big shame for this to happen at the final hurdle. Pure rotten luck.

To be honest, it didn't deserve any such glories. One of the worst for me is a month that has such a very high CET but actually not that remarkable in other fields. August 1997 is a prime example of this.

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
35 minutes ago, cheese said:

A big shame for this to happen at the final hurdle. Pure rotten luck.

It hasn’t happened yet

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Fi has flattened a bit and delayed the ridging, were definitely close to average post corrections.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

To be honest, it didn't deserve any such glories. One of the worst for me is a month that has such a very high CET but actually not that remarkable in other fields. August 1997 is a prime example of this.

That doesn’t bother me at all. Just under half of all days in August 1997 here had highs over 25C so regardless of anything else it was certainly very warm. 

 

 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

With 10 days remaining we're still running at a mean of 19.3C here. The warmest August on record was 1990 with a mean of 18.5C.

We only need the remaining days to average 17.1C to beat the record, though its unlikely now with the weather this weekend. It all depends how much it warms up next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A marked NW-SE divide has taken shape this month, here maxima have been consistently around or just above average in the 19-22 degree range, nothing special, and its been the minima holding means up - just as often occurs in August. Conversely the SE and much of the CET zone for that matter has faired much better so far in terms of maxima, consistently hitting mid- high 20s, with very high minima as well helping to hold the CET values significantly.

A marked cool down is forecast from tomorrow onwards, and only a slow rise in mean values next week. A finish high 16s, possibly low 17s most likely finishing mark.

It will go down as a warm month in the south, and an average one at best in the north. Sunshine wise, below average in the north, around average I think in the south. Rainfall wise - probably about average for most, drier than average in some eastern parts and midlands, wetter more locally in the NW.

Not a memorable month.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Gavin estimates 16.8C as of last nights modelling. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.3C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall as ever unchanged as the lack of rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.0 to the 21st

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
14 hours ago, reef said:

With 10 days remaining we're still running at a mean of 19.3C here. The warmest August on record was 1990 with a mean of 18.5C.

We only need the remaining days to average 17.1C to beat the record, though its unlikely now with the weather this weekend. It all depends how much it warms up next week.

Well the current Met forecast shows us back into the 20s by Tuesday next week, so hopefully some warmer weather can return before the month is out. Friday's forecast shows a high of 15C which would be exceptionally cool.

The mean here is 18.4C so far, 0.3C below August 1997.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.1C to the 22nd... +1.3 (19.1: +2.6)
18.0C to the 23rd... +1.3 (16.1: +0.0)
17.8C to the 24th... +1.1 (12.8: -3.3)
17.6C to the 25th... +0.9 (12.4: -3.4)
17.4C to the 26th... +0.8 (13.8: -1.9)
17.3C to the 27th... +0.7 (14.0: -1.4)
17.1C to the 28th... +0.6 (13.2: -1.9)
17.0C to the 29th... +0.5 (13.3: -2.0)
16.9C to the 30th... +0.4 (12.5: -3.0)
16.7C to the 31st... +0.3 (12.6: -2.6)

A big cool down is now within the reliable time frame. While unlikely to break any records or even get into the 10 coolest days for any individual day, the final 8 days (13.1C) on this mornings 06z could be the coolest since 1986 (12.1C). It could also mark the biggest drop in temperature between the first and last week of August (6.7C), well above the previous record of 5.6C in 1982.


Aug22.thumb.JPG.028f54d59dc4cff99c751f6831e796c0.JPG  Aug22MM.thumb.JPG.5bbe07a4ce1bf04dac55dffc13626a7a.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
21 hours ago, cheese said:

That doesn’t bother me at all. Just under half of all days in August 1997 here had highs over 25C so regardless of anything else it was certainly very warm. 

 

 

But it was smoggy and a massive cloud fest in the London area. I regard August 1997 as one I would like to forget. Nothing like the August of 1995, which had longer sunnier conditions and dry heat, instead of the humid cloudy weather of 97.

 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.1C to the 22nd... +1.3 (19.1: +2.6)
18.0C to the 23rd... +1.3 (16.1: +0.0)
17.8C to the 24th... +1.1 (12.8: -3.3)
17.6C to the 25th... +0.9 (12.4: -3.4)
17.4C to the 26th... +0.8 (13.8: -1.9)
17.3C to the 27th... +0.7 (14.0: -1.4)
17.1C to the 28th... +0.6 (13.2: -1.9)
17.0C to the 29th... +0.5 (13.3: -2.0)
16.9C to the 30th... +0.4 (12.5: -3.0)
16.7C to the 31st... +0.3 (12.6: -2.6)

A big cool down is now within the reliable time frame. While unlikely to break any records or even get into the 10 coolest days for any individual day, the final 8 days (13.1C) on this mornings 06z could be the coolest since 1986 (12.1C). It could also mark the biggest drop in temperature between the first and last week of August (6.7C), well above the previous record of 5.6C in 1982.


Aug22.thumb.JPG.028f54d59dc4cff99c751f6831e796c0.JPG  Aug22MM.thumb.JPG.5bbe07a4ce1bf04dac55dffc13626a7a.JPG

Maybe this is an early indication to how the coming winter will pan out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Just out of interest I just used GFS temps to see what it would do to our average. It would push the final figure down to 17.3C This would give our summer a final figure of 17.7C 0.2C above 76. This will all change of course but 76 is definitely at risk of being broken here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
7 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.1C to the 22nd... +1.3 (19.1: +2.6)
18.0C to the 23rd... +1.3 (16.1: +0.0)
17.8C to the 24th... +1.1 (12.8: -3.3)
17.6C to the 25th... +0.9 (12.4: -3.4)
17.4C to the 26th... +0.8 (13.8: -1.9)
17.3C to the 27th... +0.7 (14.0: -1.4)
17.1C to the 28th... +0.6 (13.2: -1.9)
17.0C to the 29th... +0.5 (13.3: -2.0)
16.9C to the 30th... +0.4 (12.5: -3.0)
16.7C to the 31st... +0.3 (12.6: -2.6)

A big cool down is now within the reliable time frame. While unlikely to break any records or even get into the 10 coolest days for any individual day, the final 8 days (13.1C) on this mornings 06z could be the coolest since 1986 (12.1C). It could also mark the biggest drop in temperature between the first and last week of August (6.7C), well above the previous record of 5.6C in 1982.


Aug22.thumb.JPG.028f54d59dc4cff99c751f6831e796c0.JPG  Aug22MM.thumb.JPG.5bbe07a4ce1bf04dac55dffc13626a7a.JPG

Have to say I'm rather dubious about things happening in this way. I'd have thought we'll get 2 or 3 days with at least average temps next week. I'd still be backing a final CET in the 17s.

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Have to say I'm rather dubious about things happening in this way. I'd have thought we'll get 2 or 3 days with at least average temps next week. I'd still be backing a final CET in the 17s.

Agreed.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
9 hours ago, cheese said:

Well the current Met forecast shows us back into the 20s by Tuesday next week, so hopefully some warmer weather can return before the month is out. Friday's forecast shows a high of 15C which would be exceptionally cool.

The mean here is 18.4C so far, 0.3C below August 1997.

You might wish to avoid the GFS maxima forecasts for sunday. 

 

37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Have to say I'm rather dubious about things happening in this way. I'd have thought we'll get 2 or 3 days with at least average temps next week. I'd still be backing a final CET in the 17s.

Minima are still pretty cool when the high tries to ridge. That keeps the daily mean down. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.3C +1.9C above normal. We actually had some rain last night. So the total is now 13mm 19.7% of the months average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.1 to the 22nd

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.0 to the 23rd

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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