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Roger J Smith

August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

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Today's 06z GFS would have the CET around 20.4C after the first 10 days, and with the Met Office forecasts to the end of August suggesting a continuation of the current weather patterns, it's hard to justify guessing anything other than well above average.

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17.4C eventually cooling off an exceptionally warm first half.

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I would like to downgrade my August prediction to 14.4C

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I'm going for 18C and 30mm of rain

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5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Today's 06z GFS would have the CET around 20.4C after the first 10 days, and with the Met Office forecasts to the end of August suggesting a continuation of the current weather patterns, it's hard to justify guessing anything other than well above average.

If we got to that point by the 10th, assuming July finishes on 19.0C after corrections, we'd only need the remaining 21 days of August to average 17.2C for 2018 to be the warmest summer on record.

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17.6C and 42mm please.

Edited by mulzy

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18.5*C and 84 mm, please. 

I have a feeling it could actually be even hotter, maybe even challenge 1995 for the top spot, but there's too much uncertainty with respect to the final week or so of the month, when the longer nights can really take their toll if the weather patterns are and clear with light winds, which has a habit of being the case when the school holidays are nearing their close, leading to a late panic to get out and about 😆.

 

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2 hours ago, reef said:

If we got to that point by the 10th, assuming July finishes on 19.0C after corrections, we'd only need the remaining 21 days of August to average 17.2C for 2018 to be the warmest summer on record.

So realistically even if July doesn't do a 20*C which it wont.  August well could?

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With this summer, who knows.  However, I feel August will be a little cooler and more unsettled than July but still well above average.  I will go for 18.3C and 70mm please.

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This is a summary of the forecasts so far. I will post the usual tables around the 3rd over in the contest scoring thread. Numbers in brackets following CET forecaster name codes are order of entry, not a factor in the EWP portion.

CET forecasts

21.5 LG (12) ...20.1 SM (14) ... 19.7 SS (22)

19.1 PEG (19) ...19.0 EDS (6), JEF (13), ROB (21)

18.9 LIS (17) GBR (18) ...18.6 STE (42) THU (54) ... 18.5 SIN (52)

18.4 STEW (24) CHR (28) DEEP (30) J10 (51)

18.3 PG (3) DAM (38) DON (56)... 18.2 CAP (7)  SEA (36) NOR (39)

18.1 SNOW (23), BFTV (43) ... 18.0 DWW (9) PIT (49) KMAN (55)

17.9 RJS (20), CHEZ (26) consensus

17.8 LEO (4) BOB (15) MWB (41) MIA (48)

17.7 CPS (10) REEF (40) EMM (47) ... 17.6 PM (8) IRA (31) MB (33) MUL (50)

17.5 DRS (25) .. 17.4 SB (16) SF (37) DAN (45) ... 17.3 W-H (34) ... 17.2 OWL (29), MET (53)

16.9 REL (27), 16.7 RAD (2) VIR (44) ... 16.6 ALJ9 (35) ... 16.5 SYED (32)

15.9 KIR (5) 15.5 TJM (1)

14.8 Wx26 (11)

14.4 CHE (46)

------------ ---------------

56 on-time forecasts, consensus (median) 17.9, 

EWP forecasts

200 LG ... 112 Wx26 ... 90 EDS

85 LIS ... 84 SIN ... 78 TJM ... 76 ROB ... 75 DRS, SYED

74 ALJ9 ... 70 DON ... 67 SF ... 66 REL ... 64.8 CHR ...62 EMM

56 CAP ... 55 NOR ... 52 PM .. 51 MIA consensus

50 LEO, REEF, J10 ... 48 JEF .. 47 W-H ... 46 RJS, STE

45 BFTV ... 43 RAD ... 42 MUL

40 SM ... 38.5 PG .. 37 SEA ... 36.8 KIR

33 BOB ... 30 PIT ... 26 CPS ... 25 PEG

-----------------------

37 on time forecasts, median for consensus is 51 mm.

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Late again!

18.2C and 84mm please.

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late - sorry

17.9c and 50mm

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20 hours ago, Daniel* said:

17.4C eventually cooling off an exceptionally warm first half.

Forgot rain. 45mm. 

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20c, mega thunderstorms end of month woth widespread flash flooding....87mm rainfall.

This is the tipping point year....wait til Dec 🤔

BFTP

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