August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

[Relativistic]

On 14/08/2018 at 16:36, Roger J Smith said:

I hope it finishes below 1976 mainly because of the lack of extreme warmth (so far) on a daily record scale, the way 1976 anchored its long run of warmth with the notable heat in late June and early July.

But it looks like a close-run thing from the latest model runs. 

In fact almost all of the top ten summers had a warmer day than this summer may achieve. I have limited internet time, if somebody wants to flesh that out, otherwise I will try to substantiate the idea when I have time later this month.

Below I've listed all the days of the top nine Summers (all those of 17.00°C and above) that have exceeded 2018's highest daily mean of 22.5°C on the 27^thJuly.

1826 (rank = 2)
27^th June (22.8°C)

1846 (rank = 6)
None, highest was 22^nd June 1846 (22.0°C)

1933 (rank = 9)
None, highest was 4^th August 1933 (22.2°C)

1947 (rank = 8 )
3^rd June 1947 (23.0°C)

1976 (rank = 1)
28^th June 1976 (22.6°C)
1^st-7^th July 1976 (22.9°C, 22.8°C, 24.6°C, 24.7°C, 23.9°C, 23.3°C, 22.6°C); part of a 12-day run from 26^th June – 7^th July above 22°C

1983 (rank = 7)
12^th, 13^th July 1983 (22.6°C, 22.7°C)

1995 (rank = 3)
31^st July – 3^rd August 1995 (23.4°C, 24.9°C, 24.6°C, 23.4°C)

2003 (rank = 4)
15^th, 16^th July 2003 (22.6°C, 22.7°C)
5^th August 2003 (23.1°C)
9^th August 2003 (23.9°C)

2006 (rank = 5)
2^nd July 2006 (22.7°C)
19^th, 20^th July 2006 (24.5°C, 22.7°C)
25^th, 26^th July 2006 (22.7°C, 23.2°C)

Edited August 15, 2018 by Relativistic

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.3C +1.8C above normal. A small rise tomorrow while rainfall up the 14th stays a low 5.1mm 7.7% of the monthly average.

[coram]

What does the August figure need to be in order for 2018 to beat 1976 as the warmest summer (June to August) ever?

[Leo97t]

Just now, coram said:

What does the August figure need to be in order for 2018 to beat 1976 as the warmest summer (June to August) ever?

18.2 approximately 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.4C, +1.9C above normal. Rainfall 8.8mm just 13.3% of monthly rainfall.

Out of interest 1976 here came in at 17.5C At the moment we are on 18.1C. Rainfall wise 76 was 45.1mm which we are well past already.

[Summer Sun]

18.1 to the 15th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.3)
17.8C to the 17th... +1.0 (14.8: -1.7)
17.8C to the 18th... +1.0 (17.4: +0.8)
17.8C to the 19th... +1.0 (18.6: +1.7)
17.9C to the 20th... +1.1 (20.0: +3.3)
17.9C to the 21st... +1.1 (16.8: +0.4)
17.7C to the 22nd... +1.0 (14.9: -1.6)
17.6C to the 23rd... +0.9 (14.5: -1.6)
17.5C to the 24th... +0.8 (14.0: -2.1)
17.3C to the 25th... +0.6 (13.6: -2.2)

It looks like a strong cooling trend kicking in around mid next week if the models are accurate. In the longer term the GFS would have the CET at about 16.8C by months end.

 

[Relativistic]

With Summer 2018 looking to finish above 17°C, I thought I'd look at how it so far compares with all other 17°C-and-over Summers (nine in total) in terms of the numbers of "hot days". I've plotted the number of daily means above or equal to each of 20°C, 21°C, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C in each of these Summers alongside the current corresponding figures for Summer 2018 (August figures are provisional). Each of the current top nine are shown in order of lowest rank to highest rank from left to right, followed by 2018. Apologies about the vertical axis labels which should read "above or equal to" instead of just "above".

The number of 20°C+ days shows a fairly even spread, with 1995 the only one to really buck the trend at a whopping 26. As very hot Summers go, 2018 seems pretty normal in this respect, with 15.

Going up to 21°C+ days, 2018 drops down very quickly to just three! The Summers of 1976 and 1995 dominate with 14 and 15 respectively, while 1826, with five days, and 1846, with six days, are the next lowest after 2018.

Going up again to 22°C+ days, 1976 destroys all competition with 12 days. The Summers of 1826, 1846, and 2018 are the poorest once more with one, one, and two days respectively.

The only current top-five Summer to not record any 23°C+ days was 1826, while 1947 also nicked one. Three of the top five, 1976, 1995, and 2006, recorded 24°C+ days.

So in this respect it seems that 2018 is really quite different from more recent very hot Summers; it fits in much better with those of the 1800s, where the heat was much more consistent, but never quite achieving any utterly extraordinary spikes like those of early July 1976 or early August 1995.

 

Edited August 16, 2018 by Relativistic

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.3)
17.8C to the 17th... +1.0 (14.8: -1.7)
17.8C to the 18th... +1.0 (17.4: +0.8)
17.8C to the 19th... +1.0 (18.6: +1.7)
17.9C to the 20th... +1.1 (20.0: +3.3)
17.9C to the 21st... +1.1 (16.8: +0.4)
17.7C to the 22nd... +1.0 (14.9: -1.6)
17.6C to the 23rd... +0.9 (14.5: -1.6)
17.5C to the 24th... +0.8 (14.0: -2.1)
17.3C to the 25th... +0.6 (13.6: -2.2)

It looks like a strong cooling trend kicking in around mid next week if the models are accurate. In the longer term the GFS would have the CET at about 16.8C by months end.

 

Certainly glorious is the outlook for those who want rid of the heat and indeed it would suggest that the second half of August would come in below average. First below average half of the month since the second half of March i would imagine. 

[Summer Sun]

18.0 to the 16th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

[SMU]

On 12/08/2018 at 22:32, DAVID SNOW said:

This 'forecasting'  game can be a tricky business, looks like you could be 3c too high with your prediction, where did it all go wrong?

Jet moved about 5 degrees south- sadly we were on the wrong side of that 5 degrees

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.3C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Models jumping all over the place only a few days ago I was looking at 30C here next week. Now it's saying 17C to 19C. So anything can still happen.

Edited August 17, 2018 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks for looking into my speculative ideas about 2018 warmth. I had a bit more time today and checked some tables I had created over in the historical data forum CET thread. This year was (so far) outdone by 26 years and tied by 3 (since daily data began in 1772), in terms of the warmest day (22.7 so far).

Now let\s totally clear up what needs to happen in August to position 2018 in the all-time seasonal CET list. These are simply the averages of June, July and August monthly values and not an exact average for the 92 days. They are rounded off to nearest 2 decimals so they end in 0, 3 or 7.

To become warmest on record, 18.2 or higher is required.

To match 1976 (17.77) 18.1 is required.

To match second place 1826 (17.6) 17.6 is required. Thus 17.7 to 18.0 achieves second place outright.

To match third place 1995 (17.37) 16.9 is required. Thus 17.0 to 17.5 achieves third place outright.

To match fourth place 2003 (17.33) 16.8 is required. There is no chance of 2018 being fourth outright.

To match fifth place 2006 (17.23) 16.5 is required. Thus 16.6 or 16.7 places 2018 in fifth place outright.

To match sixth place 1846 (17.10) 16.1 is required. Thus 16.2 to 16.4 places 2018 in sixth place outright.

To match seventh place 1983 (17.07) 16.0 is required. There is no value that makes 2018 seventh alone.

To match eighth place 1947 (17.03) 15.9 is required.

To match ninth place 1933 (17.00) 15.8 is required.

To join tenth place tied 1781 and 1911 (16.97), 15.7 is required.

To join twelfth place tied 1899 and 1975 (16.93), 15.6 is required.

To become 14th place alone at 16.90, 15.5 is required.

To become tied 14th place with 1868 (16.87), 15.4 is required.

 

[Roger J Smith]

In the above, I have to amend the count to 34 years that surpassed and 8 that tied 2018 ( as max so far 22.5 not 22.7, sorry about that ). 

[Man With Beard]

Could be a small rise in the CET by Friday - we have 6 days coming up with very high minimum temperatures, with many central areas not going below 15C at night for a while. This probably knocks the idea of a sub 17C month on the head. 

Onto the "has this been the hottest summer debate", the thing about coming comparing this summer to the CET is that the distribution of warmth during this summer has not been as optimal for central areas in other years. This year has seen a lot of easterly winds over England, which favour more western areas and southern coasts. Northern areas have also benefited at times, with pressure centered over them in June/early July. For an optimal CET, I'm guessing you need more of a southerly element in the wind. It would have been interesting if we could have looked at a Welsh CE(W)T? 

[Summer Sun]

17.8 to the 17th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

[Leo97t]

As it now looks like the hottest summer race is over we must now turn to the Max CET which I belive we are still in the race for. Does anyone know which summer currently holds the record for this as we currently stand at 23.1C

[The PIT]

All change again on the GFS with some hot weather back on the menu for parts England Wednesday and Tuesday then lala land has it turning cold for the end of the week and first part of bank holiday.

[Relativistic]

9 hours ago, Leo97t said:

As it now looks like the hottest summer race is over we must now turn to the Max CET which I belive we are still in the race for. Does anyone know which summer currently holds the record for this as we currently stand at 23.1C

Summer 1976 is currently top at 23.47C. A ranked list can be found here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_max_sort.txt

Edited August 18, 2018 by Relativistic

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18C +1.5C above normal, Rainfall unchanged as dry spell continues

[Summer Sun]

17.8 to the 18th

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

[Weather26]

On 18/08/2018 at 23:28, Relativistic said:

Summer 1976 is currently top at 23.47C. A ranked list can be found here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_max_sort.txt

It looks like 2018 we'll have no problem slotting into 2nd

[Summer Sun]

17.9 to the 19th

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 18.1C, +1.6C above normal, Rainfall unchanged.