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August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

Roger J Smith
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Sunny old Sheffield at 19.9C +3.3C rainfall zippo another rise for today and likely to be another one for Tuesday then a slow drop off.

Edited by The PIT
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

19.9 to the 6th

3.8 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

This has got to be one of the warmest first weeks of August in a long time- has anyone got the 2003 figure? It was just into the second week in 2003 that the really exceptional heat kicked in. 1995 must have had a hot first week too.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
32 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

This has got to be one of the warmest first weeks of August in a long time- has anyone got the 2003 figure? It was just into the second week in 2003 that the really exceptional heat kicked in. 1995 must have had a hot first week too.

Top 10 first weeks of August

1st...  21.5C    1975
2nd... 20.9C    1995
3rd... 20.2C    1933, 1868
5th... 19.8C    2003, 1990
7th... 19.7C    2004
8th... 19.6C    1856
9th... 19.5C    1897, 1999

So at 19.9C, we provisionally sit in there at 5th place

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

No change sunny Sheffield for yesterday. But it does look like a rise to 20.2C for Today. Rainfall unchanged at zero.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

A notably appreciably above average start to August, but there has been a marked NW-SE split, conditions here for instance haven't been particularly notably warm, indeed maxima not far off normal, its the minima that has held things up, so certainly compared to the likes of 75, 95 and 03 it has not been anywhere near as warm a start as those years, the heat really has been reserved for the SE quarter.

A downturn will now set in for the foreseeable, perhaps not as marked as was looking yesterday, but quite significant. Still expect the month to end up comfortably above average but not one of the hottest.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

19.8 to the 7th

3.8 above the 61 to 90 average

2.8 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
23 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Top 10 first weeks of August

1st...  21.5C    1975
2nd... 20.9C    1995
3rd... 20.2C    1933, 1868
5th... 19.8C    2003, 1990
7th... 19.7C    2004
8th... 19.6C    1856
9th... 19.5C    1897, 1999

So at 19.9C, we provisionally sit in there at 5th place

Hotter than 2003 and 1990? I wasn't expecting that. 

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Badgers01 Seasoned

Badgers01

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
On 07/08/2018 at 14:25, BornFromTheVoid said:

Top 10 first weeks of August

1st...  21.5C    1975
2nd... 20.9C    1995
3rd... 20.2C    1933, 1868
5th... 19.8C    2003, 1990
7th... 19.7C    2004
8th... 19.6C    1856
9th... 19.5C    1897, 1999

So at 19.9C, we provisionally sit in there at 5th place

Surprised that 75 was ahead of 95 and did not expect 2004 to be so high either !

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 20.3C +3.7C above average. Rainfall still zero up to the 7th.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

19.4 to the 8th

3.4 above the 61 to 90 average

2.4 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Wonder if anyone can help ... is it possible to access historical daily maximums and minimums for either the whole country or a specific weather station? Thanks!!

https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/europe.html

This is a great resource for station data.

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Wonder if anyone can help ... is it possible to access historical daily maximums and minimums for either the whole country or a specific weather station? Thanks!!

There are a few sites that hold data on UK temperatures. Offhand Trevor Harley weather has annual and monthly highs and lows. Can’t remember if this is the site that also has daily records also? Torro also has daily records at least for cold.

Edited by Norrance
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield down to 19.8C +3.2C above normal. Rainfall 0.7mm 1.1% of average

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

Yesterday's provisional mean is 15.8°C. Taking all the provisional daily means for August as correct that would put our run of daily means at or above 16°C at 45 days, edging 1783's record (highlighted in the July thread) of 44 days.

The daily mean for the 8th is currently down as 16.6°C, so it's still possible that we only equal the 1783 record in the event that this particular date takes a large downward hit come month's end.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

19.0 to the 9th

3.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.5C to the 10th... +1.6 (14.0: -2.8)
18.3C to the 11th... +1.3 (15.9: -0.8)
18.2C to the 12th... +1.3 (17.9: +1.1)
18.1C to the 13th... +1.3 (17.2: +0.9)
18.1C to the 14th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.1)
18.0C to the 15th... +1.2 (17.7: +0.9)
18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (17.5: +1.0)
17.9C to the 17th... +1.1 (16.9: +0.4)
17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (16.5: -0.1)
17.7C to the 19th... +0.9 (15.8: -1.1)

Close to average temperatures forecast overall for the next 10 days, which results in a gradual fall in the CET. At this stage, anything from close to average to top 5 warmest is still possible.

Aug9th.thumb.JPG.f4f4d14a5b5ae038d92135fd9f2e1486.JPG Aug9thMM.thumb.JPG.b505ef801ee923fa0fa31b104c61e948.JPG

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield down to 19.3C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

It looks like our chances of beating 1976 are falling quickly as this summer appears to have lost its legs. The outlook to day 10 is firmly westerly and indeed some of the runs (the GFS18z tonight for example) would leave us lucky to be above 17C. 

 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
18 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.5C to the 10th... +1.6 (14.0: -2.8)
18.3C to the 11th... +1.3 (15.9: -0.8)
18.2C to the 12th... +1.3 (17.9: +1.1)
18.1C to the 13th... +1.3 (17.2: +0.9)
18.1C to the 14th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.1)
18.0C to the 15th... +1.2 (17.7: +0.9)
18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (17.5: +1.0)
17.9C to the 17th... +1.1 (16.9: +0.4)
17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (16.5: -0.1)
17.7C to the 19th... +0.9 (15.8: -1.1)

Close to average temperatures forecast overall for the next 10 days, which results in a gradual fall in the CET. At this stage, anything from close to average to top 5 warmest is still possible.

Aug9th.thumb.JPG.f4f4d14a5b5ae038d92135fd9f2e1486.JPG Aug9thMM.thumb.JPG.b505ef801ee923fa0fa31b104c61e948.JPG

17Cs looking firm favorite at the moment but agree with the last post, if the jet persists through the UK all month, probably 16Cs.

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

17Cs looking firm favorite at the moment but agree with the last post, if the jet persists through the UK all month, probably 16Cs.

I still genuinely wouldn't rule out an 18C: unlikely but not impossible like others are suggesting. Would require another major heatwave though 

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted
On 07/08/2018 at 14:25, BornFromTheVoid said:

Top 10 first weeks of August

1st...  21.5C    1975
2nd... 20.9C    1995
3rd... 20.2C    1933, 1868
5th... 19.8C    2003, 1990
7th... 19.7C    2004
8th... 19.6C    1856
9th... 19.5C    1897, 1999

So at 19.9C, we provisionally sit in there at 5th place

Yesterday's value of 14.0°C gives the opening 10 days of the month a mean of 18.5°C. We've now dropped out of the top 10, currently sitting in joint-14th place with 1937.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

18.5 to the 10th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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