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Roger J Smith

August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

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August CET averages and extremes
 

(the table includes all years 1981 to 2017, colour codes show warmest, middle and coolest thirds, and

all of these values are mean daily CET values, the average of daily max and min)

 

24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.6 ... 1984, 2004 

17.3 ... 1983

17.1 ... 1991 

17.0 ... 2002, 2016 

16.9 ... 2013 

16.8 ... 2001 

16.6 ... 1989, 2000, 2009, 2012 

16.5 ... average of 1988 to 2017 and also 1991 to 2017 (emerging 1991 to 2020), 1996 

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 and 2001-2017

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 19812005, 2008 

16.1 ... 1999, 2006 

16.0 ... 1994 

15.9 ... 1998, 2015 
15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000
15.7 ... 1982

15.6 ... average of 1659-2017, and 1987, 2017

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, and 2007, 2011 

15.3 ... 1992, 2010
15.2 ... 1988

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

14.9 ... 2014
14.6 ... 1985, 1993 

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- tied 16th coldest

13.6 ... tied 10th coldest (six years)
13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

 9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

_________________________________________________________

Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Tuesday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Friday, 3rd of August.

=======================================================================================

 

EWP forecasts 

192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2017 (in 1912) from Hadley version (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

182.1 mm __ wettest August 1910 to 2017 (in 1912) from NCIC series ... Hadley version 192.9 mm

149.0 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2017 (in 2004) from NCIC series ... Hadley version 156.5 mm

 75.9 mm ___ average for 1988-2017 (NCIC)

 73.0 mm ___ average for 1981-2010 (NCIC)

 10.3 mm ___ driest August 1910 or 1981 to 2017 (in 1995) from NCIC series ... Hadley version 9.1 mm.

_ 9.1 mm ___ driest August since Hadley records began in 1766 (also the above, 1995)

______________________________________________________________________

Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast, same deadlines with 3h bonus grace period (days end 0300h next calendar date).

Your forecast should be in mm and validation uses the NCIC version which is normally slightly different from Hadley, but a Hadley-based scoring summary is also provided. 

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15.5 and  78mm i bet everything goes downhill mid month

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Still expecting a warm month, but not like the two just gone. 

Will plump for 16.7c and 43mm.

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18.3C and 38.5mm for me please. 

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19C and 90 mm please...

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18.2C and 56mm please.

I can't see this pattern breaking down for a good couple of weeks with the risk of hot weather continuing. Perhaps more westerly towards the end of the month. That said I wouldn't be surprised if I have undercooked this month as well.

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17.6c & 52mm thanks.

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Using the a figure of 19.1C for July (it looks to finish on about 19.3C before corrections), then we'd require August to finish on 18.1C for the warmest summer on record, beating 1976.

A 17.7C August would net second place and just 17.0C would see us beat 1995 into 3rd place. It could even finish on 15.8C (0.6C below average) and we'd still be in the top 10 warmest of the last 360 years!

It shows how exceptional it has been so far. I wonder how high up the list it could go?

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Posted (edited)

Rest in pieces summer 2018!  21.5C  :(   Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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19.0C alongside 48mm ppn

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Posted (edited)

Sorry guys im claiming this in advance

A double whammy of records

UK 20.1c Aug 2018 first 20c on record +3.9c on ave

40mm

Svalbard 10.0c Aug 18 - First 10c on record +5.3c above ave - if that happened goodbye Ice in that region.....

Edited by Steve Murr
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17.8 and 33mm please

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I'd like to change mine, my ultimate final guess is 18.9 and 85mm

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19.1 c 25mm please 

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I think it’s going to start warm to hot, but after the 12th, August will become cool and dull, and it will start to feel autumnal by the late bank holiday. 

 

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