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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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13 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The ECMWF 12Z looks very scary for Tuesday, sending the low into mainland Britain without losing much of its intensity:

 

Yes but it's interesting that it goes from this, T144:

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To this just 24 hours later:

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I think heat will win out on this one.

Meanwhile, longer term, we've got the bias corrected GEFS sending atmospheric angular momentum off the scale, surely this can only force the jet into more meridional patterns?

image.thumb.jpg.0dcd6c495ab389addb955c4af5b5b781.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Wow there's a lot of very warm air wrapped up in that vigorous depression on its eastern flank on the Ecm 12z, real blow torch and torrential rain too..possibly thundery!.. A cool crisp autumnal end to the run with a risk of ground frost across scotland.

144_mslp850.png

144_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM looks to be a big outlier - none of the ensemble clusters in the 00z run had that low anything like on the 12z, so I’d be very surprised if it’s changed that much in 12 hours!!

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Wouldn’t say that necessarily translates as nice and cool just yet - 850s are similar for the next couple of days and it’ll still get to 19/20c. Not quite late enough in the year yet for low single figure 850s to make it really cool....perhaps a bit more up north, but certainly not down here just yet.

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Evening, both models are hinting on a very stormy spell  early next week ,fascinating viewing courtesy of the ex tropical storms....Hurricanes.....

ecmt850.144-1.png

h850t850eu-2.png

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49 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh look some real weather to talk about for once . IMG_2543.thumb.PNG.2cbd55bf271a30a09a6064084cefaa2a.PNG

That is a nice storm ECM . It beats boring sunny hot weather we have had for the last 4 months . Still warm for a few days next week ( but I can't see 30 being reached ) . After that it looks nice and cool 😎 IMG_2544.thumb.PNG.f44359d3599db5d544fc3eb4123bd5f0.PNG

If that was to come off what would wind speeds be?

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1 minute ago, JK1 said:

If that was to come off what would wind speeds be?

80 to 90 mph . Here are a few snap shots of charts from weather.us . 

IMG_2548.PNG

IMG_2550.PNG

IMG_2552.PNG

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Latest ECM weakens Helene quite a bit on approach to the UK. Gales/severe gales for the SW and a stiff wind elsewhere. Approaching 30C just ahead of the storm on Tuesday! 

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11 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

80 to 90 mph . Here are a few snap shots of charts from weather.us . 

IMG_2548.PNG

IMG_2550.PNG

IMG_2552.PNG

Oh dear.  I don't like the look of that at all.  Goodbye, Pembrokeshire, it's been nice knowing you.....

ICON and GFS both tell a similar story for the 18th September....

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Luckily, other models including UKMO do not agree with these predictions so there is a good chance things will not turn out quite like this but it certainly looks like an Atlantic storm is on the cards for some parts of the UK next week.

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Certainly the most unsettled 0z GFS for a while. From days 6-16 we get low after low. 

GFSOPEU00_240_1.png

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Certainly the most unsettled 0z GFS for a while. From days 6-16 we get low after low. 

GFSOPEU00_240_1.png

00z not really in keeping with the ensembles in the latter stages:

gefsens850London0.png

NOAA guidance doesn't look anything like as bad - showing a NW/SE split. Staying on the mild side.

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Some warmth returning next week, looks like south western areas including Wales will be warmest on Monday with temperatures nudging up to 20- 21C or so and it should stay dry for a time before the wet and windy weather arrives either later on in the day or overnight, even warmer in central and eastern areas Tuesday with 25C possible but slightly less warm compared to Monday in the SW and Wales with highs of 17 but perhaps 21C in Dorset. 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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I've seen worse ECM ensembles at D11:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091300_264.

Nearly 70% strong high pressure dominated. Looks similar to NOAA guidance and meto extended updates too.

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Good looking day 10 Ecm 00z ensemble mean, settling down nicely under high pressure and before then, a return of warm weather further south..could be worse!:D😎😉

EDM0-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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I think the key to a settled D8-D15 period is partly going to be Helene. The ECM op is further east with it at T144 than the majority of the ECM ensembles. The further east, the less settled the days after are, but if the ensemble consensus is right, it will be further west, encouraging a stronger ridge over the UK/N sea = more settled and quite warm for longer. 

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The increasing AAM and GWO phase 3-4 move is a part of the equation, but also uncertain in terms of how far it goes. Generally I'm of the impression that the bigger the AAM climb, the further west Helene is likely to track as a result of the Atlantic trough being sharpened up.

Netweather GFS Image

While waiting for the models to figure that out, I'm having some strong Ophelia flashbacks looking at this! Strangely, the rain distribution becomes more like a major hurricane as the storm reaches this point, having only resembled an 'angry blob' beforehand. Given what we saw last October, perhaps the increasing Coriolis effect while moving over unusually warm SSTs allows this gain in organisation and strength even as the SSTs lower. 

If it wasn't for what Ophelia did, I'd be throwing out any notion of a major hurricane making it so close to the UK. How times have changed!

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What a shame this is 384 as that would be a lovely position to be entering October with - a very good snow advance westward, WAA into the pole, a sceuro trough and a stonking big ridge right from the Atlantic to Svalbard.

 

gfsnh-0-384_eww7.png

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12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

plume Tuesday! like 2 summers ago

ukmaxtemp.png

BBC have 26c as a max at the moment....though this could get revised up. All depends on the fetch and where the cloud and rain end up. Anything to the east of the rainband could be very warm indeed.

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ECM 240 interesting - following GFS script.

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The models are firming up on a very warm / hot tuesday and the Ecm 12z has a nice warm anticyclonic ending.☺🌞

120_mslp850.png

120_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

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38 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

plume Tuesday! like 2 summers ago

ukmaxtemp.png

The overnight temperatures look interesting too with many areas staying above 20C. Surely close to breaking a record there?

 

GFSOPME12_138_5.png

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