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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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Seeing as heat is going to be making the headlines across most of southern uk early and probably even more so later next week from the south it's a good opportunity to show the hottest potential from the GEFS 12z a bit further ahead in the early August period and there's currently a lot of hot potential..dazzling charts, I'm cherry picking of course and in no way am I saying it's going to happen but those of you who like looking at roasting hot charts won't mind i'm sure😁.☺😎🌞🌩️🔥🔥🔥

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Edited by Frosty.

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Interesting 12z gfs ensemble - by the 3rd of August, 19/20 members are above the 10c line, nearly half are over 15c, mean at 13-14c.

could just be random clustering of hot runs that could easily vanish, but it’s looking increasingly likely the first few days of August will carry on where June and July left off.

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Broad trend remains with the ridge to our east and a trough to our west 

EDM1-144.GIF?20-0   EDM1-192.GIF?20-0   EDM1-240.GIF?20-0

Getting the detail right with such a hot airmass perillessly close to the east of the UK. 

One difficulty is that low during the middle of the week, timing of when that engages the main trough will determine its eventual track and even then there are uncertainties regarding how deep it will become. The earlier it develops you would assume the further west it would end up and hence higher pressure over the UK and higher chance to pulling up the very hot air over Spain. 

So overall I wouldn't rule out something very hot developing, to be honest even with the 16C isotherm grazing the UK you would probably get close to 35C given a series of very warm to hot days preceeding this and the dry and warm weather which has dominated this summer so far.

Just to illustrate this point, wecould compare consecutive operational runs, so the ICON just because the 18z has run.

icon-0-120.png?20-18   icon-0-126.png?20-12

So the 18z already is deepening that low and pulling it north by day 5, the 12z has the low shallower and further south and you can see the difference with the heights downstream over the UK. 

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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The models,means,anomoly's,ens etc are not much different from last evenings if not a tad better this evening,lets have a look:-

the latest from cpc 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500mb outlook look steadfast with the hp cell over Scandinavia,the trough slightly further west than last night's and retreating more on the 8-14 day anomoly chart,i would say that the hp cell is ruling the roost here but i hold firm for a bit longer yet

610day_03.thumb.gif.e4cb49bd3542b02706bd50cdfefff5c0.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.5f761cd4fc447c347235f64f327c4a13.gif

the ECM and GFS mean and height anomly at 240(day ten) show the block quiet well,will the trough make it across the BI,we have been here before when the models was showing a breakdown but didn't materialise

EDH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.ee8eecd98cc0fc0f881ab0853547fa81.pnggensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.3caa9447bbcd396eec4adeed6687294d.png

EDH101-240.GIF.thumb.png.402c8a3ea335f2c8cd51d23bc5cd660c.pnggensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.6d6869dde8cb29124665e93d7101cbbd.png

the AO shows a tanking so the NH looks like it would be slowing down and would produce a more meridial pattern

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.d72b0e84374b3f02f4fbebb59498f9b0.gif

De-built temps shows a max of 35c toasty

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.dc115c519516c3db3033e95354918650.png

gefs ens look steady

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.gif.39141f101d7150a5a3d9ab11a6eb1370.gif

and finally the ecm ens,the op again a cool outlier

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.6518400df1ac1ebb33e3bc1eb4107a5d.png

sorry for the quick editing as i was running out of time,i wanted to put more context into it

still looking good from my point of view.

 

 

 

 

 

 

eps_pluim_td_06260.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Sorry for the unfinished post above,my keyboard just suddenly locked up and had to restart pc

editing post above^

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Very blocked summer thus far. No coincidence that we are now up to 23 days on the trot of zero sun spots. You have to go back to 2009 for a longer spotless run. Just as solar minimum helps accentuate blocked patterns in winter, it seems the same could be said for summer patterns. 

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Well! well! well!

the trough is way out west at 144hrs on the gfs 18z

look at that!,that is some correction west,12z 150 on the right.

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.d4ebec68d1cc2b43eca9edad5379addd.pnggfs-0-150.thumb.png.396b202ad622c4b3ac04225efce4f85a.png

further downgrades on a breakdown and as we all say,bring it on🌡️☀️

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well! well! well!

the trough is way out west at 144hrs on the gfs 18z

look at that!,that is some correct west,12z 150 on the right.

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.d4ebec68d1cc2b43eca9edad5379addd.pnggfs-0-150.thumb.png.396b202ad622c4b3ac04225efce4f85a.png

further downgrades on a breakdown and as we all say,bring it on🌡️☀️

2007 calling si 😂

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18z is real nasty. Obviously still okay but compared to recent output it's not great let's be real. Trough pushes any heat away from the uk with temperature falling back to average. May be a cold outlier as I can't remember the last time the operational wasn't a cold outlier

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4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

18z is real nasty. Obviously still okay but compared to recent output it's not great let's be real. Trough pushes any heat away from the uk with temperature falling back to average. May be a cold outlier as I can't remember the last time the operational wasn't a cold outlier

Looks pretty good to me in the reliable time frame. After 144 hrs can certainly be ignored from the GFS at the moment, especially the pub run which seems to be performing worse than normal at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

18z is real nasty. Obviously still okay but compared to recent output it's not great let's be real. Trough pushes any heat away from the uk with temperature falling back to average. May be a cold outlier as I can't remember the last time the operational wasn't a cold outlier

I would look no more than 144 hrs Leo as it's an upgrade from the 12z,look no further and you would prevent hysteria:smile:

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I think the GFS 18z should be tossed in the bin as it goes mad with the secondary low next week and deepens it to an extent that would be impressive in winter let alone summer....

A very complex set up developing as we have cold air over Greenland (an area that isn't modelled as well) and this is being forecast to pour into the North Atlantic.

However the extent to which that will happen is still uncertain. The way in which the two low pressures interact is also a nightmare to model.

I don't expect this to be resolved until T72.

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Very nonsensical charts from the 18z. Low rapidly intensifies and then a strong anticyclone is introduced in an odd fashion with quite a hot end to the charts

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Admittedly the early part of the 18z GFS looks suspect, but the end of the run sure looks interesting with a monster plume set up taking centre stage, T348:

image.thumb.jpg.a9ae7b7189aaf97a03d724b80f9b2e86.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e5a662ecce7d48d7f9e0e38282c28a48.jpg

Not saying that will happen, just another solution in the mix for now!

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GFS can indeed go in the bin since it's 10-20mb deeper than any other run but the pattern remains the same from the last few operationals. Namely that low pressure west of Ireland pushes everything east within 24 hours or less. 

GFSOPEU18_168_33.png

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12 minutes ago, cheese said:

This is the miserable doom-mongering Alderc I remember.

Nope, sensible given the progressive contuinal nature of models trending further east with encroachment of the Atlantic trough. 

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8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Nope, sensible given the progressive contuinal nature of models trending further east with encroachment of the Atlantic trough. 

The 18z actually has the LP further west at 144, so how is that a trend?

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seen that before with gfs ,blows up a huge dartboard low in the Atlantic when it is struggling to work out what will happen when the low interacts with the huge blocking high over Europe .Gfs decides the low will push the block eastwards but don't worry,because in fl the block will come back and intense heat will push up from Spain.ok we believe you gfs....

Edited by SLEETY

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55 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Again lots of silly comments about discarding the 18z each run is becoming more progressive and clear trend of a breakdown. BBC forecasting 35c for next Thursday, bet hardly anywhere reaches 25c by then......

How is it silly to dismiss the 18z run? It deepens the low far too much and that has a knock on effect thereafter.

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Morning runs;

UKMO
UW120-21.GIF?21-06   UW144-21.GIF?21-06

UW120-7.GIF?21-06   UW144-7.GIF?21-06

That low runs north to north east as a shallow system like the ECM operational runs, Friday looks like things could hot up across England away from the runs in the north west of the UK.

GFS

gfs-0-120.png   gfs-0-144.png

gfs-1-120.png   gfs-1-144.png

Actually not a million miles from the UKMO, more of a defined SE flow on the GFS by Friday but the low has a similar track and this run no over the top deepening of that parent low. WOrth noting that the GFS forecasts a high of 32C on Friday with the 16C isotherm creeping into the south.

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6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

seen that before with gfs ,blows up a huge dartboard low in the Atlantic when it is struggling to work out what will happen when the low interacts with the huge blocking high over Europe .Gfs decides the low will push the block eastwards but don't worry,because in fl the block will come back and intense heat will push up from Spain.ok we believe you gfs....

Indeed I wonder if we will see the same as in winter with the GFS model quick to break down the high to the east over the medium term only to back away at the last minute. 

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ECM looks great out to the weekend - maybe a push to get 35c from that, but looking very hot none the less.

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If its trending, then the ens are a good start for viewing.

Anyone looking/wanting both-a fairly quick breakdown/or-no possible upspike in temps will be dissapointed! A terrific set going forwards via 00z suite...

Some very notable heat building...even in compare to what we are now already used too..!!!

Short term surface temps (-24th)..also of note.

Certainly could'nt argue that the hottest chapter of an-already increadable season will very soon be upon ourselves..

Increadable stuff !!!

Todays sets/suites will be very telling.

 

MT8_London_ens (1).png

GFSOP00_49.0000_8.0000_211.pngGFSOP00_52.0000_0.0000_211.thumb.png.a0de10dd89cd79fb5d22e599ef709284.png.f720a0fe53e335759d655a7ee0d0a338.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
Chart added to original post.

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ECM looking hot for England and Wales from start to finish... without ever touching the very hottest weather. No sign of a second plume on the ops yet

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