Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Frosty.]

To me, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks better than the 00z at day 10 with a stronger ridge covering more of the uk..I will take any positives i can find!

[Mike Poole]

At times like this when model uncertainty reigns, I'm minded of the often trotted out mantra in winter, of the models smelling the coffee.  So instead of trying to interpret the 12z suite meteorologically, here's my take on what they are 'smelling':
ICON - Nescafé Gold blend - quick to high to NE, short run though.
GFS - Americano - what we used to call 'coffee' pre Costa, Starbucks etc - decent run.
UKMO - Espresso - goes in right direction, very short though.
GEM - rotting left overs of a doner kebab the next day, with brown lettuce. 
FV3 - filter coffee with extra cream, great run.
ECM - a turpentine and Evo-stick mix - preposterous run.
FIM9 - bog standard decent coffee from a Wetherspoons pub, with free refills, decent run.

Notwithstanding that it seems the runs favouring the build of high pressure through the UK and then NE look similar, the ones that don't favour this look very different.  I'm still going for the settled early September. 

Edited August 23, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Earthshine]

51 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At times like this when model uncertainty reigns, I'm minded of the often trotted out mantra in winter, of the models smelling the coffee.  So instead of trying to interpret the 12z suite meteorologically, here's my take on what they are 'smelling':
ICON - Nescafé Gold blend - quick to high to NE, short run though.
GFS - Americano - what we used to call 'coffee' pre Costa, Starbucks etc - decent run.
UKMO - Espresso - goes in right direction, very short though.
GEM - rotting left overs of a doner kebab the next day, with brown lettuce. 
FV3 - filter coffee with extra cream, great run.
ECM - a turpentine and Evo-stick mix - preposterous run.
FIM9 - bog standard decent coffee from a Wetherspoons pub, with free refills, decent run.

Notwithstanding that it seems the runs favouring the build of high pressure through the UK and then NE look similar, the ones that don't favour this look very different.  I'm still going for the settled early September. 

My barista senses are tingling...     

[damianslaw]

A bit of volatility in the models today - various options on the table longer term, but all it seems this evening at least coming to the same conclusion in the end, i.e. strong heights building to the NE and heights to the south ridging through and joining hands..

Looking at the jetstream profile forecast, there remains a degree of uncertainty still, the jet looks quite ragged and amplifed for the foreseeable. Indeed a split flow could surface, and it will then be a question will the energy transfer into the southern or northern arm - much will depend on the strength and orientation of the blocking feature and crucially where the core of central heights position themselves. If they position themselves further to the north and east, we could end up with a more southerly tracking jet, with energy transferred into the southern arm - with heights eventually then repositioning to the north - as being suggested by GFS and ECM earlier today.

Heights centred more over N Germany/S scandi would probably aid greater amplification and elongate the trough N-S axis to our west, a plume scenario could then be the end result, but I wouldn't at all be then surprised to see heights ridging to the north around the trough, and a cooler cyclonic episode could then develop with heights remaining strong to our north. The expected ENSO El Nino background state would support this latter evolution. 

 

[Scorcher]

Surprised that it's so dead in here this morning- there's been an improvement in the op runs this morning, particularly the ECM 00z, which shows high pressure building from midweek onwards, especially for the south, and eventually nationwide.

The end of the run also shows heat building again:

It's not too late for another hot spell, even though autumn seems to be in the air right now. Still plenty of time for more warmth and even heat.

[ICE COLD]

55 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Surprised that it's so dead in here this morning- there's been an improvement in the op runs this morning, particularly the ECM 00z, which shows high pressure building from midweek onwards, especially for the south, and eventually nationwide.

The end of the run also shows heat building again:

It's not too late for another hot spell, even though autumn seems to be in the air right now. Still plenty of time for more warmth and even heat.

The op is on its own at days 9 and 10 tho . 

Like I said yesterday that's where they have stayed for some days now . Always at day 9 and 10 . The models are boring at minute, we needs some storms to liven things up . 

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The op is on its own at days 9 and 10 tho . 

Like I said yesterday that's where they have stayed for some days now . Always at day 9 and 10 . The models are boring at minute, we needs some storms to liven things up . 

Speaking of days 9 and 10..that's when the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks at its best, especially further south with warm settled weather under a strong ridge indicated, potentially very warm across southern england at T+240 hours.☺

[Leo97t]

ECM has potential for real heat for anytime of the year. Interesting to see how this develops as it is an outlier at the moment but this is what I expect to develop 

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

The op is on its own at days 9 and 10 tho . 

Like I said yesterday that's where they have stayed for some days now . Always at day 9 and 10 . The models are boring at minute, we needs some storms to liven things up . 

This morning's run is certainly more believable than the "how many cut off lows can we stick over Europe at once" output of yesterday. Still at that timeframe you would suspect the pattern is probably too far north. The gfs is flatter but still sees high pressure driftung across from time to time with rainfall falling off after the bank holiday weekend.

As for the weekend itself, given the excellent conditions we have seen on previous bank holidays this year, this one looks more typical, cool and fairly wet which is a shame.

[Leo97t]

Gfs is back to being a high pressure fest with the 15C isotherm hanging just to the south of the UK pretty much the entire second half of the run. 20C Iso over France for a while. If we can get a southerly in for a few days there is real potential. 

[MP-R]

Again, quite a selection of options on the table for post midweek next week. GFS likes the idea of high pressure being more influential, albeit a NW/SE split until the depths of FI, whereas the ECM brings a possible heatwave for the first weekend of September but a thundery low to the southwest waiting in the wings that could bring in a southerly-tracking Atlantic spell thereafter with heights holding to the north. 

The GFS seems more realistic for the pattern we've had so far in August, just with greater anticyclonic influence further north. However, a more Nino-like setup (a la ECM) would likely raise probability of troughs appearing in the Atlantic. Quite interesting to watch. In my own personal view, I'd quite like the ECM to verify - could bring an early September 2005 type setup.

[Frosty.]

A few snapshots from the GEFS 6z mean at various stages in the extended range show plenty of fine and warm weather to potentially look forward to as high pressure becomes the dominant feature into early september, the best weather further south but indications that the north would also join in at times, especially later...Looking through the postage stamps there are a few hot ones in there, quite a few warm / very warm ones and just for balance, some cool / average ones too but for those of us hoping for another late taste of summer, there's plenty to be optimistic about with another great update from exeter, september could be a fantastic month across most of the uk!☺

[Mike Poole]

Much better output on the 12s so far, with the settled spell now coming into the reliable.  UKMO at T144:

Might take a second surge to really deliver from here. 

GFS, GEM at same time:

Going on with GFS, here T216 and T240, looks great and with power to add with the next high in the wings. 

[Mike Poole]

Ironic there's so few people on here tonight as this seems to be when the resurgence of summer weather is resolved. 

Comment on ECM in a minute but first here's the FV3 at T180:

This model in my opinion has been the most consistent in building the ridge right across the UK.  ECM coming on board, here T192 and T216:

Edited August 24, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is great longer term, even better than the 6z with very strong support for an increasingly anticyclonic extended outlook with warm surface conditions by day although with the lengthening nights and under clear skies, temps may dip into single digits celsius but overall once we are through this cool unsettled spell it's looking really promising for the majority on here who enjoy fine warm weather.☺

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Usual late summer NW/SE split for my b'day, will be sunless here as high not far enough north on this run, but at least it will be mild

[Frosty.]

Wowzers..look at these uppers on the Ecm 12z into september!

[Frosty.]

Following that superb Ecm 12z operational, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also indicates a late burst of summery weather into early september, especially for southern uk..and who knows, it could set the tone for much of next month!☺

Edited August 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[ICE COLD]

The ECM is not as good as yesterday for you summer lovers . Low pressure is more involved and it's quite a messy run . At day 7 low pressure smack bang over us . 

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ends very well with high pressure about to build in strongly and although most of the run is a mixed bag, there is some very warm and fine weather at times, especially further south. As for the short term, today doesn't look bad, some sunshine and just a few showers dotted around, tomorrow is a washout but then BH Monday the sun comes out again.☺

Edited August 25, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mac_SE]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ends very well with high pressure about to build in strongly and although most of the run is a mixed bag, there is some very warm and fine weather at times, especially further south. As for the short term, today doesn't look bad, some sunshine and just a few showers dotted around, tomorrow is a washout but then BH Monday the sun comes out again.☺

So the low on the 00z that Ice Cold shows being 'bang slap' over us for Sat 1st is gone by the Sunday?

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

So the low on the 00z that Ice Cold shows being 'bang slap' over us for Sat 1st is gone by the Sunday?

Yes that low / trough only lasts one day, the day before it there's a ridge and the same by sunday. The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good too for southern uk later in the run.☺

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

The ECM is not as good as yesterday for you summer lovers . Low pressure is more involved and it's quite a messy run . At day 7 low pressure smack bang over us . 

 

Do you only post to try and play down any settled weather that the models are showing? Sorry but the BBC are certainly on board with a warm up towards the end of the week. Temperatures have been upgraded for my area as well this morning. The GFS 06Z is looking great for a build of high pressure towards the end of the week. Very reasonable through next week as well overall.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Do you only post to try and play down any settled weather that the models are showing? Sorry but the BBC are certainly on board with a warm up towards the end of the week. Temperatures have been upgraded for my area as well this morning. The GFS 06Z is looking great for a build of high pressure towards the end of the week. Very reasonable through next week as well overall.

The ECM 00z was not as good of a run as the runs of yesterday . Was it not ? Did I say there was no settled weather ? No . Just stated that was low over us next Saturday . It's just average uk weather . No heatwave . So don't really get your point of your reply . 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The ECM 00z was not as good of a run as the runs of yesterday . Was it not ? Did I say there was no settled weather ? No . Just stated that was low over us next Saturday . It's just average uk weather . No heatwave . So don't really get your point of your reply . 

why not mention the GFS as well? I know many on here don't rate GFS, but showing a good day,  EC is top model for a reason mind you