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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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Yes Steve, 0c 850's over N/W Scotland, Something I noted on Thurday as GFS was hinting back then.

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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GFS longer term chart, truly puts NW Europe in to early Autumnal mode but keeps the heat and drought full on over Western Northern American States and British Columbia. Another amazing hot summer again over there, 3 on the bounce.

C

GFSOPNH00_384_2.png

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Will the high pressure ridge in or not, difficult call at the moment.  GFS 6z says yes, that's one run though.  T240 & T360:

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The Gfs 6z operational shows high pressure building in strongly towards the end of august and continuing into early september and apart from the far nw / n,  most of the uk becomes fine and warm, warmest across southern uk..this would be a pleasant end to summer / start to autumn for most.☺

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The GEFS 6z mean, like the operational is indicating a much more settled end to summer / start to autumn with pleasantly warm surface conditions, especially across england and wales...so, following the much cooler autumnal spell later in the week ahead there are good signs of recovery during the following week.☺

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Certainly a shock to the system later in the week according to the Ukmo 12z with a very cool autumnal unsettled blast sweeping SE following a warm humid, potentially very warm first half further south..some really impressive early cold 850's (uppers) not far to the north of the uk next weekend!:cold-emoji::shok::smile:

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Edited by Frosty.

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27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Certainly a shock to the system later in the week according to the Ukmo 12z with a very cool autumnal unsettled blast sweeping SE following a warm humid, potentially very warm first half further south..some really impressive early cold 850's (uppers) not far to the north of the uk next weekend!:cold-emoji::shok::smile:

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That day 6 chart would be pretty poor for most people given that you probably have a front on the northern edge and 4C uppers. One of those <15C and heavy rain type setups. 

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Comparison of the 12s at T144, UKMO, GEM and GFS:

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UKMO and GEM awful start to the holiday weekend.  Can't say much more about UKMO as that's as far as it goes, but GEM holds the trough over UK for ages - utter dross - but maybe showing signs of change only at the end of the run T240:

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GFS on the other hand follows 6z and parallel, bringing a ridge in at same time:

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Nice 😉

And the September heatwave is still on the cards, T384:

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Edited by Mike Poole

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It's a recurring theme from the Gfs for an anticyclonic end to summer / start to autumn and this 12z run is no different, it shows summery warmth further south during early september.☺☀️

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Edited by Frosty.

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a recurring theme from the Gfs for an anticyclonic end to summer / start to autumn and this 12z run is no different, it shows summery warmth further south during early september.☺

Yes Karl, it's like a dog with a bone, and not at all without ensemble support now either, here the GEFS mean at T276:

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Long range stuff and Met Office outlooks support this, so I'm still quietly confident of an anticyclonic start to September.  Plenty of time for cold weather from November!

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I think some heat potential for first week of September. Wouldn't surprise me if we haven't seen the last 30C of the year. Looking quite similar to 2006 in terms of having a very warm June, a very hot July and then slightly above average August and maybe a hot September? We will see. More runs needed

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According to the Ecm 12z next Friday will be the coolest day nationwide, quite a shock to the system for those southern areas which earlier in the week look fine, very warm and humid..into next weekend, cool at first then gradually warmer by sunday and more especially BH monday further south and also signs that high pressure starting to build in from the SW during the last week of August and warming up too but trouble brewing to the north by T+240.

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Edited by Frosty.

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Thoughts turn to the week following the Bank Holiday weekend, and signs from both the ECM and FV3 that the horrendous GEM / UKMO outcome was the result of some hideous computer glitch.  

ECM first and at T240 has a rather odd arrow shaped high pressure, no doubt where it's pointing so that's all good!

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FV3 which has supported the ridge scenarios into September for some runs now, has this at T216:

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On today's runs, all of them, I'm 70/30 in favour of a significant early September heatwave now 😎

Edit: Yeah, go the FV3 🌶️ T252:

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Edited by Mike Poole

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Looking at the extended GEFS 12z mean there is currently a very strong signal for high pressure domination and depending on where the high is positioned, there is potentially a very warm end of aug / early sept...judging by the postage stamps there are some warm / very warm and even a few hot ones..also some cool / average ones but anticyclonic could be where we are heading.☺

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Edited by Frosty.

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Tonight's ECM is going for 24-25C as maxes throughout this week until Friday, and then 17-20C throughout the bank holiday weekend! Wouldn't be surprised if the south coast isn't a bit higher, and recovering back into the mid 20s straight after, but I think we can rule out another record breaking bank holiday :)

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Next up the ECM 12z ensemble mean, here at t240:

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high pressure nosing in definitely the form horse.  

Remember the FIM9? Really good model though it lost out in its bid to become the next GFS, here T228: 

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Are you going for settled September? I am.

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Lovely end to the Gfs 18z. Ending just a smidge below 30C by the end in London but vast diurnal range of 20C in parts of the country.  Major European heatwave brewing with 42C in Spain. Interesting to see how this develops. 

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Apart from the UKMO which only goes out to Sunday and shows a deep low slap bang over the UK on that day, there is plenty to be happy about on this mornings operationals for those who want more warm and sunny weather. 

The GFS and ECM both show high pressure building in by the end of the weekend and becoming dominant throughout next week for most of the UK. 

Sunday is a transition day, however as mentioned, the UKMO looks pretty bleak on Sunday compared to the ECM/GFS. We’ll have to see over the next few days how the UKMO wants to handle the early part of next week. 

Edited by danm

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Haven't checked the clusters for a few runs, here's what they say for the 28th Aug and then about a week later, 2nd Sept

28th

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081812_240.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081900_228.

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Now 2nd Sept 

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ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081912_336.

So general overview - next week starting with north/south split, but good weather spreading to all by the first weekend of September, with small chance of a warm euro low affecting the SE

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That looks much better - none of the watery height rises we’ve seen forecast, something much more substantial perhaps as we head into September. Could be very nice and mellow!

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Thanks again, Tamara.

One thing - can anyone point me towards a quick-look glossary of the various acronyms used in the posts talikng about teconnections? For example, CCKW.. not a clue what it stands for or what it means?

Just a decode of the acronym and a brief outline of what it is will do me. I can then read further if I want.

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