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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice end to the Ecm 00z, indeed most of the run looks nice further south with plenty of fine and warm / very warm weather.☺

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And that's the way last night's ecm ensembles unanimously expected the week to play out - both clusters with a raised jet and a nose of the Azores High out to D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081712_300.

And surprise surprise! First day of September, and it's good positive height anomalies all round :)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081712_360.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Nice end to the Ecm 00z, indeed most of the run looks nice further south with plenty of fine and warm / very warm weather.☺

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Looking at the Gfs 00z operational further ahead there isn't much sign of a slippery slope into autumn either!!.Indeed it looks quite summery apart from the cooler blip later next week.☺

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

I think people are maybe over playing the influence of the Azure high ridging in. To me the pattern looks fairly flat through out the ECM run and what we finish with is not too dissimilar to what we have now, checks out window. 

According to some on here this weekend was going to be 27-28 pushing 30 but the reality is very different. 

Edited by shotski
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean shows the azores ridge / high pressure generally becoming more dominant towards the end of august and continuing into early september, indeed, looking through the postage stamps there are some very warm / hot spells in there longer term!☺

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
11 minutes ago, shotski said:

I think people are maybe over playing the influence of the Azure high ridging in. To me the pattern looks fairly flat through out the ECM run and what we finish with is not too dissimilar to what we have now, checks out window. 

According to some on here this weekend was going to be 27-28 pushing 30 but the reality is very different. 

I did at one point think 30C could be reached based on the ECM raw data, but it is struggling to nail temps down at the moment and has been wildly out a few times, so best ignored for now. But the AROME has 26-27C in the SE corner for tomorrow, and the ARGEPE 27-28C. I'd back those over anything else including the METO :)

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 00z mean shows the azores ridge / high pressure generally becoming more dominant towards the end of august and continuing into early september, indeed, looking through the postage stamps there are some very warm / hot spells in there longer term!☺

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And plenty of average cooler ones in there as well

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, shotski said:

And plenty of average cooler ones in there as well

I was really talking about the mean, on balance there is an increasing chance of high pressure becoming the dominant feature towards the end of august and into early september with pleasantly warm surface conditions..heat would be a nice bonus!☺

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, shotski said:

I think people are maybe over playing the influence of the Azure high ridging in. To me the pattern looks fairly flat through out the ECM run and what we finish with is not too dissimilar to what we have now, checks out window. 

According to some on here this weekend was going to be 27-28 pushing 30 but the reality is very different. 

not really, people were commenting on what the models were/are showing . they did suggest the azores high building in, and with a southerly componant bring some heat back. of course we all know these are predictions and not something set in stone. so if they show the azores high building in, its not really over playing it, especially as this summers heat has come via building azores pressure across the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not really, people were commenting on what the models were/are showing . they did suggest the azores high building in, and with a southerly componant bring some heat back. of course we all know these are predictions and not something set in stone. so if they show the azores high building in, its not really over playing it, especially as this summers heat has come via building azores pressure across the uk.

That wasn’t my point, I think you miss understood. We have the Azure’s high ridging in today as it’s forecast to do most of this week for mostly the southern half of Britain but look at the associated cloud that comes with it ? Any breaks in the cloud and good temperatures can obviously be reached but 9 times out of 10 we seem to get the Atlantic gloom mixed in. I Didn’t say in my post that it wasn’t ridging in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some posts have gone, Please use the Summer thread for general chat.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's fair to say the Gfs 6z operational is more unsettled and cooler than the 00z but there is still some nice warm days out to and including next wednesday further s / e and the occasional very warm few days further ahead..again further s / e but there is some autumnal feeling weather at times.☺

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
59 minutes ago, shotski said:

That wasn’t my point, I think you miss understood. We have the Azure’s high ridging in today as it’s forecast to do most of this week for mostly the southern half of Britain but look at the associated cloud that comes with it ? Any breaks in the cloud and good temperatures can obviously be reached but 9 times out of 10 we seem to get the Atlantic gloom mixed in. I Didn’t say in my post that it wasn’t ridging in. 

It’s a valuable lesson to show that even charts which look good synoptically can bring quite poor surface conditions. This weekend is a case in point where you’ve got the 1020 mb isobar and with pretty much no chance of recording any sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One for the coldies this morning on the GFS parallel 0z:

image.thumb.jpg.6ba37c36cd9926448b10d459852b06bf.jpg

 

Now that would affect the CET and freeze the seas.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week is a week of 2 halves across most of england and wales with the first half predominantly fine humid and warm, potentially very warm further s / e depending on sunshine amounts but then a band of rain sliding SE reaching central uk midweek followed by much cooler / fresher air from the NW with a mix of sunshine and showers although the SE probably drier once the rain clears through. Northern uk cooler and unsettled throughout next week but looking further ahead there are stronger signs once again that the azores high could be ridging in with high pressure potentially becoming the dominant feature during the last days of august / first days of september.☺

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
4 hours ago, shotski said:

That wasn’t my point, I think you miss understood. We have the Azure’s high ridging in today as it’s forecast to do most of this week for mostly the southern half of Britain but look at the associated cloud that comes with it ? Any breaks in the cloud and good temperatures can obviously be reached but 9 times out of 10 we seem to get the Atlantic gloom mixed in. I Didn’t say in my post that it wasn’t ridging in. 

Sorry for that.. i stand corrected

Ps its the azores high, now i am right on that lol

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ukmo 12z the first half of next week is summery further south with Azure's ridging and warm 850's so potential for very warm conditions across the s / se for a time if there is some decent sunny spells but across northern uk it looks cool and unsettled next week and by next thurs and especially friday there is quite a shock to the system as by Friday it looks autumnal very cool and fresh from the NW...I  prefer Azures it sounds more exotic :D

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif  ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Model guidance seems to be freaking out a bit following a faster than predicted amplification of the tropical signal in the W. Pacific. 

Remains to be seen whether this will continue, but in my opinion, the adjusted EPS offers the best guidance going forward:

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

- that being a little suppression by the departing CCKW and then the new cycle kicking off good and proper in 4-5 days time.

Due to these considerations, I remain sceptical of the currently modelled extent and duration of southward movement of the polar jet into Europe later next week; something less dramatic is envisioned on my part.

EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

September is probably going to do that classic 'back to school, back to summer' thing this year - but unless we're very unlucky, we shouldn't have to wait quite that long. Next Sun-Mon as the launch point perhaps? Ah... just remembered GP's 'torpedo' from a couple of winters back . A different beast this time around for obvious reasons.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well the op runs tonight look rather disappointing for renewal of summer, GFS does get there around T360, and I still think this is the direction of travel. It's heavy traffic though!

That said the GEFS ensembles tell a rather different story with a strong signal towards more settled weather at least for the south, here T240 and T336:

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image.thumb.jpg.10350ac0b33c316b8b2d9f00c32806b5.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

There's no point polishing it, the 12s tonight are disappointing regarding a return to summery conditions at the end of the season.  

ECM at T240:

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FV3, like GFS earlier shows high pressure in charge later, here T300:

image.thumb.jpg.92e3a196319de2d643ecdfc812990e5f.jpg

10 days now since the heatwave ended, for those that want heat, at least 10 days away for me, although I do think it will eventually happen into September.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Chalk and cheese between the Ecm 00z / 12z today...more runs needed!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Wonderful Euro tonight for those who want Autumn.

More interestingly though is the GFS wanting to increase the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (likely doing further damage at the sub-surface should it maintain).

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Thread appears silenced by this evenings ECM output it seems; because it isn't showiny any quick return to nationwide summery conditions, indeed it is showing a rather autumnal end to summer.

I said keep an eye on developments over the NW atlantic Seaboard, and possible increased cyclogenesis in that region thanks to some early cold pooling over Greenland which would interact with the jet and create ripe recipe for low pressure formation - as being shown by the ECM this evening, kicking into touch and sustained azores ridge development. ECM could be having an off evening so to speak, but its not without possibility despite some seasoned forecasters saying its got it wrong.

In the shorter term - the models remain firm on a more amplifed flow as we approach bank holiday weekend with some cool uppers invading the northern half of the UK at least - its what happens thereafter that can't be easily called.

I too certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a big fat high pressure settle up shop to our NE just in time for when the schools go back.. so many times this seems to happen, last year was a bit of an anomaly.. however, that's over 2 weeks away, so the last week of August could still be quite changeable for many.

Edited by damianslaw
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