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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ukmo very aggressive with the trough tonight! Be interesting to see what the ecm says later, was much less vigorous on the 00z run.

If you want heat you want a vigorous as this injects heat into the uk quicker and can create some spectacular storms.

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

If you want heat you want a vigorous as this injects heat into the uk quicker and can create some spectacular storms.

Yes, but it gets too close and forces the plume further east. Need it to stall a few hundred miles further west like the ecm showed for optimal heat!

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yes, but it gets too close and forces the plume further east. Need it to stall a few hundred miles further west like the ecm showed for optimal heat!

So you want my location to be soaked so you can have your plume? 😜

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

UKMO 12z at 144hrs looks windy for Ireland. Looks a bit like Ophelia. Dragging up a warm airmass?

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

was that the one with the red sun? cool that was

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Just to get an idea of the uncertainty, I've counted how many of the 12z GEFS perturbations have the 16C T850 isotherm in the UK at T240.

it's 6 - out of 21 🍒. Most into the SE but one bizarre one (P5) qualified via Orkney and Shetland!

A lot needs sorting out about how far east or west this potential plume hits.  Lots to be looking at in future runs, great model watching! 

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It's a really good GEFS 12z mean, the trough stays well to the west and we see height rises to the e / ne, the heat intensifies later next week and then again through early August with predominantly very warm / hot weather across southern uk throughout and plenty of fine sunny conditions too but with the heat further south also comes humidity from the continent with a risk of thunderstorms at times..overall it's a very summery looking mean again.☺

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM Week 3 clusters looking mainly ridge dominated well into August too!

(Twitter: kerry_mason)

E824AD04-152A-495A-A1F3-FEE6E6CAAECA.jpeg

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Ecm op says no to the ukmo take on things - trough much further away, 850s touching 15c in the se by Thursday again.

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Been watching things closely in the last few days but its a highly uncertain outlook but here are my interpretations of what is going on....

Earlier on in the week we had a signal for a rapid build in pressure just to our east around Tuesday, this led to the forecasts of around 35C for parts of the England on the GFS later next week.

However a problem is that the high intensification appears to be slower then forecast.

image.thumb.png.753e0a7a182c7cda753fd19afd075fc1.png The high to the east isn't as strong and the block starts to make inroads before we can bring up the really hot air to our south

image.thumb.png.b790356840bb86ca4e3dbc8f526002f7.png 2 days later the hot air is pushed well away to the east

image.thumb.png.67890c23a84f5950097bf87604e1b133.png Though things at least remain relatively settled

image.thumb.png.57dce111d2bf676f89a1731a5502355e.png At T168 we have some notably cool uppers in the North Atlantic, cold pooling here is usually followed by a hotter then normal Mediterranean...

My worry is that this could power up the jet stream.... what we need to look out for is either a weaker Atlantic low or a stronger high to our east. Its difficult to make a call for next week as it stands.

image.thumb.png.b2fe173fba05be4bb91bb5cc291e82db.pngP2 Gets it right though its in the minority.  Many members show it getting pretty windy out west!

Is the GFS being too progressive? Perhaps but we shall see...

In the meantime a good weekend to look forward to and a hot Monday/Tuesday for some!

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Comparison ECM v UKMO at T144, similar heights over Scandi, but the low system to the west much better on ECM, liking this run so far:

image.thumb.jpg.8907214fe4b2e179d06e63c0ff958436.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a2a17040cbb378bca413bdbe65ce11e9.jpg

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The ECM actually takes that low on a similar track to the UKMO, but it is much shallower so it moves through quicker bringing some rain to the north west but then of course allows the warmth to return across the UK quicker with the 12C isotherm never leaving the south east with this returning across much of England.

The main trough looks like lifting out, but will there be low heights left over towards the south west which would help keep the push of heat towards the UK going, the GFS simply removes all low heights but could possibly be too clean with this.

Edit - Not this time, cold front pushing slowly east by the weekend.

Worth noting that there will be some potential proper heat before this potential surge of heat later next week. 

arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?20-18

33C still looking possible in eastern England on Monday.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Looking more likely that anything truly exceptional (35c range) is slowly being scrubbed off as the very warmest air just misses the SE. There could be a correction back, but it still looks like a week of temps wandering in the high 80s/low 90s is on the cards in the south. We’d be jumping up and down in any other summer with a week like that on offer, maybe we’ve just been so spoiled this year that it’s not psyching people up so much!

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23 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Indeed-even from this standpoint, the mass azhp looks to quickly develop with clear and concise eyeing of northwards progress in uk shores.

All this given that the north west atlantic low(trough)-engages as far into mainland uk as the ecm 12z wants.

So the word blip becomes adiquate-and just a possible notion.

Everything really geared toward a quick evolution back to warm/hot ....rather quickly!!!!

Ens(gfs)compare..6z/12z..highlighting the mean and members firmly in that way of thinking.

MT8_London_ens (3).png

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Ecm continues to make a-more evaporative' trough sequence and the chase of heat progression really building...

Not to forget the non-short supply of ridging behind the forementioned...awaiting perhaps the merge of the by then mass upper ridging spilling ever northward well into the uk....and likely beyond...

Given there are dynamics away from mentioned...but to both maintain the wave...and perhaps intensify it...all the signals are there!!!!!

For a foreseeable uk oven burner!!!

'For highlight'...

ECM1-192 (1).gif

ECM1-216 (1).gif

Edited by tight isobar

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Plenty of very warm / hot weather on the Ecm 12z both this weekend and next week, especially further south by southeast, plenty of hot sunshine to come, becoming a bit fresher further n/w for a time toward next midweek before another hot surge from the south with increasing humidity and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out..then a bit fresher from the west as an azores ridge builds in towards the end of next week and merges with the heights to the NE so although it wouldn't be as hot by then it would still be warm and becoming largely fine too for most of the uk.

144_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looking more likely that anything truly exceptional (35c range) is slowly being scrubbed off as the very warmest air just misses the SE. There could be a correction back, but it still looks like a week of temps wandering in the high 80s/low 90s is on the cards in the south. We’d be jumping up and down in any other summer with a week like that on offer, maybe we’ve just been so spoiled this year that it’s not psyching people up so much!

I suspect the lack of enthusiasm might also be down to the fact that for much of the country there is no actual heat on offer. Looking at the Arpege charts for example, there seems to be yet another front tracking its way south on Monday which brings cloud and a bit of rain here, and thus temps of only 24C and a very tight temperature gradient across the Midlands, which is a bit disappointing considering the relatively high 850 temps. That could all change as the previous runs were different but that's how it looks on the 12z.

I think some very warm or hot weather is nailed on for the SE but it's a bit precarious for the rest of us. There was probably more excitement earlier in the season because the heat was nationwide rather than restricted to one area of the country. It's also been a rather cloudy week in this part of the world and there still doesn't look to be much in the way of sunshine on offer, so even less reason to get excited (for what has been a very warm month thus far it seems to be lagging in the sunshine stakes compared to, say, 2006).

Edited by cheese

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7 minutes ago, cheese said:

I suspect the lack of enthusiasm might also be down to the fact that for much of the country there is no actual heat on offer. Looking at the Arpege charts for example, there seems to be yet another front tracking its way south on Monday which brings cloud and a bit of rain here, and thus temps of only 24C and a very tight temperature gradient across the Midlands, which is a bit disappointing considering the relatively high 850 temps. That could all change as the previous runs were different but that's how it looks on the 12z.

I think some very warm or hot weather is nailed on for the SE but it's a bit precarious for the rest of us. There was probably more excitement earlier in the season because the heat was nationwide rather than restricted to one area of the country. It's also been a rather cloudy week in this part of the world and there still doesn't look to be much in the way of sunshine on offer, so even less reason to get excited.

Great post. Saved me doing one very similar. It looks like more of the same for most people, which to be fair no one can complain about. But today's runs have confirmed for me, the hot weather looks to be a se only event. 

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19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looking more likely that anything truly exceptional (35c range) is slowly being scrubbed off as the very warmest air just misses the SE. There could be a correction back, but it still looks like a week of temps wandering in the high 80s/low 90s is on the cards in the south. We’d be jumping up and down in any other summer with a week like that on offer, maybe we’ve just been so spoiled this year that it’s not psyching people up so much!

the goldilocks summer continues , so many times the super charged uppers have been dangled only to be moderated nearer the time... never mind temps above 35c can we get the real holy grail a dry sunny hot August ?

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3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

can we get the real holy grail a dry sunny hot August ?

Well if the GEFS 12z mean is anywhere close, early August looks superb, especially across the southern half of the uk with hot predominantly fine weather but a risk of thunderstorms around too..obviously I'm hoping August will be another Great month and that we can break some heat records and to be honest, with the general synoptics shown, I don't think we will have a better chance..fingers crossed.☺

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A warm week but it looks like the Euro and GFS both more or less agree on no major plume except for a one day affair for Euro. 

GFSOPEU12_168_33.png

Outlook afterwards is still warm but more of a standard affair. 

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Evening All, yes next week is often hot in the south east,  but certainly more of a Atlantic influence as we move into next week,,,,,Watch the crippling horrid BBC describe next weeks weather now and get it horribly wrong....Next week looks very interesting.....😎

REALLY.png

REALLYX.png

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I really don't think anyone should be writing off this plume scenario based on the current model output, there's too much uncertainty, fairly obviously the plume would have to be pretty much at the western extent of that uncertainty to come off, but that is in the mix, this GEM perturbation at T252 ensemble illustrates with 20C isotherm into UK.

image.thumb.jpg.7654612522bbceb74d2cae961d9085e5.jpg

Moving on, the ECM ensemble mean is squarely behind the Scandi high scenario, here T240

image.thumb.jpg.f4446fb8ba7c0e30f96f0ed114e43c08.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f5076a99d72c04901510b9c29190753c.jpg

Will need the clusters to unpick that, other evidence from the 12s, here the FV3 gets 18C into the SE

image.thumb.jpg.d6371189233be70b5c2f42e162ece7e1.jpg

Finally the FIM9, which arrives at this by T222:

image.thumb.jpg.4413cebbb5a78bb3e3325e6a7d7ad8a7.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5ca61dca952d27068dba445b5f9d9a4b.jpg

Atlantic dominated it certainly ain't!  😎🔥🥒

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I must say the Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks pretty great this evening if it's very warm / hot weather you're looking for, especially for the s / e / se☺😁

Edited by Frosty.

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