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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

00z runs are all fairly flat without any substantial ridging....nothing to suggest anything major changing any time soon.

Yet again the 00z runs ate more flat. Been a patten recently.  Very odd that these runs don’t seem to pick the signals up thst well.

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Much better ECM clusters last night though at D10 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081012_240.

Yep, but it’s day 10 again!

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20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Much better ECM clusters last night though at D10 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081012_240.

Something tells me the ones this morning won’t be nearly as optimistic. Let’s see!

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54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Something tells me the ones this morning won’t be nearly as optimistic. Let’s see!

I had a sneaky peak at the individual ensembles and I'm guessing it will be a 70/30 split in favour of a ridge between D8 and D11, maybe more 50/50 in Scotland. 

Point well taken about it being D10!! However when the odds get 70/30 or above, I tend to feel more confident. I don't think we quite got there last time. 

GEFS is even more in favour - probably more like 80-90% going for the ridge at this timescale. 

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Same again from all the runs this morning for next week - N/S split developing from Tuesday with sunny spells and warmer weather (low to mid 20s) in the south, more unsettled and cool in the north. All alreas could see some rain on Thursday as the jet takes a bit of a dip south (although the UKMO keeps this system slightly further north than other runs). Back to the N/S split again from Friday. 

So no return to widespread settled conditions or a heatwave over the next week, but much more typical British summer weather with the usual areas seeing the best of the weather (S/SE) and the usual areas seeing the worst (N/NW). 

Personally, as a heat lover in summer and being down in the SE, I can’t complain after the weather we’ve had. Today is a beautiful sunny day, after two awful wet days. Sunday and Monday look showery again, so from Tuesday I’ll be more than happy with sunny spells and temperature in the low to mid 20s. 

Edited by danm

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Yes clusters reasonably in favor of ridging between D8 and D11 (a bit less certain further north) , here's the D9 chart. Not quite 70/30 like I suggested earlier, so need this to improve a bit more before making a forecast out of it

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081100_216.

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GFS 6z is a really decent run.  The sort I think we'll start to see more of if the background signals and seasonal model output are on the money.  Snapshots at T192, T240, T360:

image.thumb.jpg.df12f9c4cc73adae1ccb2693e7734c08.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.967037fea2e71290c2c37c6e7006d033.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b2666e93e339c96bb856ae19dc99ae47.jpg

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Yes I was just about to say the same as mike, the Gfs 6z operational looks mainly dry, warm and fine for the southern half of the uk with plenty of high pressure / ridging whereas northern uk looks more changeable / unsettled and cooler..comparing like for like, yesterday's 6z was a stinker, today's certainly isn't!☺

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Once again we have a good looking Ecm 00z ensemble mean at day 10 with increasing azores high / ridge influence which would hopefully bode well for the final third of August!☺

EDM1-240.GIF

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Prediction: 12s will show a significant shift to settled weather and northerly jet stream, from about a week from now.

ICON at T180 to start with:

image.thumb.jpg.2556a5048e7183b56fde61c96281a5d1.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.32ba68bfcc6d1b34d7857a544a8008b2.jpg

GFS and GEM rolling now.

Edited by Mike Poole

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GFS looking decent again for the south Tuesday onwards. Saturday sees pressure building further north too. 

UKMO broadly similar to the GFS, however the low on Friday is centred SW of Iceland rather than N of Scotland which may have an impact on how far pressure was to build on Saturday were the UKMO to go out that far.

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Well GFS is following the script so far. Here excellent for a return of high pressure at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.34a14c98c5fa085c289cd9c894a0c281.jpg

GEM had to struggle with some small areas of low pressures and so is a bit behind at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.2fa863ac15bdb7be22bf50f509a5f64c.jpg

Edit: GFS T348 showing the Atlantic trough, high to the east, that some of us have been expecting!

image.thumb.jpg.b6b36903612fc25fdcd33347488a069c.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Surprising to see flatter runs for next Fri-Sun from GFS and GEM, as the opposite again seemed favoured when perusing the tropical signals;

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif GWO_members_current.png

MJO yet again defying model projections, remaining active in the Pacific instead of declining in favour of something on the other side of the globe, and AAM looking to start rising by around 6 days from now through the Nino phases.

A recipe for the Atlantic trough to be less progressive with more downstream ridging.

 

Those flatter GFS and GEM 12z runs (UKMO unclear) may be related to the fact that they're now having to decline the Pacific tropical activity even further as it's more active to begin with; as far as I understand it, the greater the amount of decline involved, the more the atmosphere can swing from the more amplified state this weekend (shame it's with a low close to the west) to a more zonal state next week.

If that's correct, then it will be a big deal if the MJO doesn't actually fade out at all, and instead remains active in the Pacific with a drift toward phase 5 followed by renewed eastward propagation through 6-7.

 

I'm still seeing enough reason to view next Sun/Mon as the favoured initiation point for a more settled trend with temperatures generally trending upward over time, with some chance it could be Fri or Sat.

 

Worth noting, by the way, how GFS keeps finding its way to arrive at the warmer, at least briefly more settled spell one way or another, regardless of how many tyre traps it throws in front of the bus. The signal is registering in the modelling - it just need to be picked up more strongly and, ideally, given a cleaner approach.

Edited by Singularity

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Some lovely late summer weather develops on the Gfs 12z operational as it becomes very warm with high pressure followed by increasing humidity from the near continent with thunderstorms bringing some flashes and bangs as we head towards the end of this memorable meteorological summer..it would provide a great finish to a great summer.☺:drinks:

 

   

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_mslp500.png

12_312_mslp500.png

12_336_mslp850.png

12_336_uk2mtmp.png

12_360_uk2mtmp.png

12_360_ukthickness850.png

12_384_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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38 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Surprising to see flatter runs for next Fri-Sun from GFS and GEM, as the opposite again seemed favoured when perusing the tropical signals;

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif GWO_members_current.png

MJO yet again defying model projections, remaining active in the Pacific instead of declining in favour of something on the other side of the globe, and AAM looking to start rising by around 6 days from now through the Nino phases.

A recipe for the Atlantic trough to be less progressive with more downstream ridging.

 

Those flatter GFS and GEM 12z runs (UKMO unclear) may be related to the fact that they're now having to decline the Pacific tropical activity even further as it's more active to begin with; as far as I understand it, the greater the amount of decline involved, the more the atmosphere can swing from the more amplified state this weekend (shame it's with a low close to the west) to a more zonal state next week.

If that's correct, then it will be a big deal if the MJO doesn't actually fade out at all, and instead remains active in the Pacific with a drift toward phase 5 followed by renewed eastward propagation through 6-7.

 

I'm still seeing enough reason to view next Sun/Mon as the favoured initiation point for a more settled trend with temperatures generally trending upward over time, with some chance it could be Fri or Sat.

 

Worth noting, by the way, how GFS keeps finding its way to arrive at the warmer, at least briefly more settled spell one way or another, regardless of how many tyre traps it throws in front of the bus. The signal is registering in the modelling - it just need to be picked up more strongly and, ideally, given a cleaner approach.

The models trying to kill the development may be related to them trying to kill off the westerly wind burst just west of the dateline. Euro presumably does this more the GFS at the current time. 

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Euro tonight is the most progressive of the models with less resistance at day 6, a secondary low and then after a transient ridge, another low arriving for day 11.

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro tonight is the most progressive of the models with less resistance at day 6, a secondary low and then after a transient ridge, another low arriving for day 11.

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

That's the 00z!😉

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Looking at the GEFS 12z mean the week ahead looks mixed with some rain and showers at times but also some fine warmer spells, especially further s / se but then the azores ridge builds in bringing drier and warmer conditions with sunny spells across more of the uk, thereafter there's some ebb and flow from the azores high and lower heights to the NW before the azores ridge again gets the upper hand.

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Edited by Frosty.

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ECM a bit better than the 0z out to Saturday. N/S split agreement with the GFS & UKMO, pressure starting to build a little further north by Saturday. 

 

BC290B3E-B9E5-493F-8AA7-BDB3C7B5402D.png

B9D99601-9AF5-4363-9056-72BE220CE1B6.png

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It’s a week away, but next Sunday looking good on the ECM.

 

2D8F6B26-0837-41B4-A8CB-2DC30FDB8D2A.png

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Ironically, Friday's cooler than it was on the 12z run of yesterday because of the trough being less progressive; the associated tropical maritime air doesn't reach us until overnight into Saturday.

GFS was cooler because of less ridging so in this respect ECM is much better as the trend with the trough and ridge is more to the north and east by the weekend.

168_mslp850.png?cb=855 192_mslp850.png?cb=855

 

You can really see the adjustment in the track of LP systems take place on this run as the new regime takes shape.

GFS 12z did actually come very close to this; it just look a couple of days longer to weaken the upper level westerlies across the UK, which resulted in one of the lows out west taking an (unusual) due-east track across southern parts during the weekend, with the ridge build set back until that had cleared away.

 

216_mslp850.png?cb=855

Still needs to find more amplification with the mid-Atlantic trough and Euro-UK ridge pattern, and probably about to fluff its lines as that low out west lifts out NE when it should remain near the Azores, but it's a fair bit closer than the 00z. 

Hoping for a kinder UKMO run tomorrow - this evening's was very aggressive with the eastward advance of main Atlantic trough - and for the ridge build through the UK from the southwest to trend stronger and more resilient for Sat-Mon across the modelling as a whole. 

These have been tough times, but I can still see the light at the end of the tunnel.

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ECM T240 against the FV3 at same time, ECM first:

image.thumb.jpg.010edc6b84656aeebd24d77e32aed532.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.48aa62161a3dd11a5db719b02707e8f0.jpg

At the moment I think the FV3 sits better with other output, so I'm going with that one!

FIM9 at T198 for comparison:

image.thumb.jpg.3ccb1dbe1dc324314c644ed868fd408f.jpg

All promoting high pressure over the southern parts of the UK at 

Least.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Well there's certainly potential for very warm conditions at times on this evening's Ecm 12z operational depending on sunshine amounts, especially further south there could be some rather hot days..late in the run particularly.

96_thickuk.png

96_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_thick.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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If I were trying to interpret the ecm mean tonight, which holds the 10c/12c 850 line quite high between D7 and D10 but on a very flat trajectory, I'd say we're going to get a short hot spell between next Saturday and the following Tuesday, but not staying hot for more than a couple of days. I'm guessing the flat mean masks timing issues on a front incoming for Monday or Tuesday. 

This prognosis would sit fairly well with all the input of the past 24 hours imo. 

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