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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But still a fair bit better than issuing a new (and often drastically altered) 'forecast', each and every time a new model-run is published?

Quite right. People get a bit hung up on each individual run, they key has always been taking the situation as a whole rather than one individual part. I’d bet my house the 6z won’t sit within the ensemble mean at all, and be well below.

As @Man With Beard has posted, the ecm ensembles look excellent.

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At 144 the GFS 6z ensembles are all over the place. Just highlights the uncertainly. But the op run is over progressive compared to the mean.

More runs needed!

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Fabulous Ecm 00z ensemble mean..you know what, I think a heatwave is coming!🙂😀🌡️trough to the west digging south forcing a ridge to build NE ahead of it with heights rising to the east / north east enabling hotter increasingly humid continental air mass to drift north across the uk, potential for serious heat further s / e with plenty of dry sunny weather but a growing risk of thunderstorms..speaking  of storms, the SE looks the sweet spot later today into tonight!🌩️

ECMAVGEU00_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_96_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Temps around 30c mark are certainly notable for the UK. 

 

43 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I think many are suffering from 'model heatwave fatigue'..... i.e anything short of 33c is just....well.....'meh'.......28c is just so 'yesterday'

These are good points, it is worth looking how rare temperatures towards the mid-30s are, or maybe were with a seeming increase in heatwave frequency possibly aided by urbanisation and heat islands. Records broken or similar values achieved repeatedly for example in 1990, 1995, 2003 and 2006 in some cases date back to 1976 but many date back 60-70 years or longer from when the station records began.

The met office has good summaries of 1990, 2003 and 2006

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/aug1990

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/aug03maxtemps.html

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/july2006

The journal Weather also has a good review of 2006

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wea.101

and forecasting issues

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wea.106

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Very warm to hot, particularly in the south and east. Fresher and less settled at times in the north and west. Hottest spots hitting around 32/33’C.

Could turn hotter still late next week, at least in the south and east, but with fresher conditions trying to push in from the west.

That’s what forecasts have been saying and that’s what the model output still shows. Not sure where comments about egg on faces have come from.

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1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Anomaly charts only tell you where lower pressure is in relation to higher pressure and vice versa, they don't tell you exactly where the LP or HP is going to set up. 50/100 miles is going to make a lot of difference to weather on the ground in these situations.  I believe they also do not get it right all of the time (a 70% success rate maybe?)

well they do pinpoint where the mean upper ridges and troughs are likely to be .... within the mean upper flow is where you get the range of options of conditions most likely. so when they dont allow for a trough over the uk like the 06z gfs, its highly unlikely to happen. hence not getting all wound up like some do over 1 run.  john holmes said the 6-10 day chart when consistent is upto 90% accurate, with the 8-14 day chart coming in at 70%.  that makes them the most accurate for their timeframe.... NOTHING gets it right all the time. but the times ive seen them spot the trend long before the ops do, and the ops hardly ever 'win' a predicted mean upper pattern when in disagreement with the anoms. but you do need to view the ops for detail.. hence i take note of the ops closest to what the anoms predict. that method is very successful, as the 1k - 1.5k local people who daily read my blog on fb will testify :)

we all have our prefered suites though, so whatever works best for people individually cant be far wrong.

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surely were not thinking the gfs is right.

the ecm looks alot more realistic as for the gem well records would tumble if it were to be correct

.gem-1-216.thumb.png.cc0441687985c5b2bbc01fac14783f27.png

as for the ecm its not identical but has same sort of idea as gem.

2100326029_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.a8b9b9da5785db9dba58150c41b41c43.gifECM0-216.thumb.gif.dbf20258c57c12e2deb05609b83ad73e.gif

and i add ecm 216 from the 18th july to show differences.

id be inclined to think that more runs are likely to back a little more west.

scandi heights ruling the pattern.

 

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even the jma extended rebuilds heights further on after a 24hr breakdown.

rinse and repeat.

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Wondering if the next GFS run actually won't be a cold outlier for once!

I have a feeling the 12z runs will be interesting . . . 

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32 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Wondering if the next GFS run actually won't be a cold outlier for once!

I have a feeling the 12z runs will be interesting . . . 

i expect a lot of 'upgrades' regarding heat potential on the ops.

tamaras " So, the long anticipated transition from the unusually northward displaced Azores/Atlantic ridge eastward extension domination (very warm and bone dry regime) to Atlantic low and downstream Euro/Scandinavian ridge domination (more humid, sequentially hotter at times with "cooler" re-sets, and rather less homogenously settled overall) is almost complete " is bang in line with the noaa consistent predictions, and they themselves have a 'high confidence' rating.

looking good :)

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11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

UKMO 12z at 144hrs looks windy for Ireland. Looks a bit like Ophelia. Dragging up a warm airmass?

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Yes W.H, Quite a squeeze there..

w.h.thumb.png.9e20ac9b35eb0bcc5bdd3d5ae76e5677.png

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Don't want to see this trough correct any further east now.

UKMO looks OK at 144 away from NW Britain but its getting to close for comfort for the rest of us now.

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't want to see this trough correct any further east now.

UKMO looks OK at 144 away from NW Britain but its getting to close for comfort for the rest of us now.

Looks like the real heat is being downgraded somewhat...good enough for me!

Warmest air comes in overnight Thursday before being swept away during Friday

Netweather GFS Image

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12z ICON looks a decent run, bringing in 16 uppers to SE at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.ea11c0a822bfedb0485701fa4660d024.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3eeed53353e77748fd2049857a834452.jpg

GFS poor at same time, much cooler air in place. Just highlighting quite a lot of uncertainty remains in the model output.

Edited by Mike Poole
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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

12z ICON looks a decent run, bringing in 16 uppers to SE at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.ea11c0a822bfedb0485701fa4660d024.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3eeed53353e77748fd2049857a834452.jpg

GFS poor at same time, much cooler air in place. Just highlighting quite a lot of uncertainty remains in the model output.

Yes  but on a more positive note no one has mentioned gfs has the low further west compared to 06z run and pressure remains high pretty much throughout the run with temps mid to high twenties!!

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The difficulty coming up is that secondary low runnig along the jetstream during next week and when it fully engages the main Atlantic trough and swiftly move on a more northerly trajectory.

Day 6 charts

UW144-21.GIF?20-18   gfs-0-144.png?12

UW144-7.GIF?20-18   gfs-1-144.png?12

The pressure rise behind this system looks a good call but of course the question is how much inroads can cooler air from the west makes. The GFS takes this across most of the UK (This time it fails to reach the south east before warmth builds from the south again). Hard to call the UKMO and until the track of that low is certain in regards to when and where rain coul fall then anything further out is tougher to call though drier conditions developing looks quite likely as we end the week.

Of coursethe GFS showing a progressive solution in the push of westerlies against other more slow moving outputs (ECM/GEM this morning) where the ridge to our east holds position then you have to be a little suspicious about whether it is being too enthusiastic regarding this push of cooler air. Still it might happen and alas no sign of the GEM yet.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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The Gfs 12z operational is a decent run, it's not a scorcher but there's plenty of warm fine weather on it with predominantly high pressure / ridges and very warm at times, especially further south / east / southeast.

Edited by Frosty.
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28 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yes  but on a more positive note no one has mentioned gfs has the low further west compared to 06z run and pressure remains high pretty much throughout the run with temps mid to high twenties!!

Yes agree and the run is largely anticyclone dominated for the rest of the run, so great summer weather to be had.  But no plume (for those that wanted one).  The problem I have with this run is it doesn't really fit with my view of the direction of travel, formed from the clusters, Met Office updates, long range models and the background signals so well explained by @Tamara earlier today. 

The 12z is more a continuation of the last few weeks when I think the more likely outcome will be Scandi high and some plumes, interspersed by pushes in from the Atlantic that don't quite make it.  We'll see!

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational is a decent run, it's not a scorcher but there's plenty of warm fine weather on it with predominantly high pressure / ridges and very warm at times, especially further south / east / southeast.

Really hoping this run doesn't come to pass (probably won't thankfully). While it would remain dry and possibly sunny for a lot of the run, the path of the low pushes away the heat after Friday for most of us- so low to mid 20s away from the SE. I think we will do a bit better than that!

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Finally m

Edited by Alderc

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So, here we are then - right at the end of the GFS12Z: Netweather GFS Image

And, apart from individual features being in slightly different places from what they are today, not much seems to have changed...?

So, all looks warm for the foreseeable?!:D

PS: Would have posted more charts but 'allegedly' - though they have no problems with Karl's posts -  mobile-phone users (except me??) have difficulties understanding such complexities!

 

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Ukmo very aggressive with the trough tonight! Be interesting to see what the ecm says later, was much less vigorous on the 00z run.

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As expected the gfs 12z brings things slightly more west real battle east verses west and the East is a brick wall.

Unbelievable definitely drought conditions.

So record breaking stratospheric warming event earlier in the year happened just at the right time.

Along side a flat lined solar activity.

A break down will come at some point but looks like no time soon.

It's been a cracking year for model watching.

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