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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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46 minutes ago, shotski said:

Frosty I wouldn’t say that was a fair assessment of the 850’s. To me it looks very changeable with +12 uppers only briefly flirting with the southeast. A downgrade if it’s oppressive heat your looking for. 

Looks pretty good to me, especially but not exclusively further s / se...☺

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0z GFS and I’m still not seeing any return of the Heat wave we’ve just seen. Temperatures maxing out at 24-25 degrees which is perfect with variable cloud & rain and maybe the odd storm. Perfect. 

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Much less amplified on all models this morning - flat, westerly based with more of a NW/SE split going on. Temps around average, though perhaps warm at times in the S/SE with 850s between 10-12c from Sunday to Thursday next week.

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Back to earth with this morning's ECM - Far less settled throughout, hotter spells shorter. 

The ECM op last night had just 6% support in the clusters by D9 - this morning's run could have fit into most of the other clusters. So in the eye of its ensembles, this morning's run is more likely to verify than last night's, if I'm being cold and factual about things. 

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Euro is certainly a wonderful run for those of us who wish to run down the clock..

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Thoughts from over here regarding the UK. Looks like ex hurricane Debbie coming into the equation now and throwing a spanner into the various model evolutions. Sure increase in energy to be had out in the Atlantic. The question is how will the jet stream  align into the British Isles from Sunday into early next week and advance the frontal activity ?  There is a certain amount of doubt in this mornings prognosis with a thought some heat could  advect towards the British Isles during the latter part of the weekend with the main Atlantic attack pushed a bit further north and west. Could change again as the models come to grip with the extra energy produced by ex Debbie. Looks easier to produce a forecast over here in Central Europe but could I think now be causing a bit of a problem  for the UKMO forecasters. 

 C

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For next week the GFS looks best from a fine and settled point of view, UKMO looks v poor out to Wednesday and the ECM is somewhere in between. 

We’re still not much further forward in getting to grips on exactly how next week will play out. 

I think the Met Office 10-day trend forecast yesterday sums up what we know at the moment - wettest in the NW and warmest in the SE. The north on all runs looks prone to cool and wet weather, in the south each model shows something a bit different. 

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A wet and blustery weekend to come as shown by the Net-Wx MR Model.

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2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

A wet and blustery weekend to come as shown by the Net-Wx MR Model.

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Certainly looks that way PM...

as highlighted on BBC Weather this am( and through the week ) there has been much deliberation on exactly where the most unsettled weather will be.

Current thoughts indicate that this honour falls to SW, Wales and Central areas.....should be some reasonable falls of rain there and breezy for sure.

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean T+240 looks the best I've seen recently with good support for increasing high pressure / ridging and also warmer temperatures extending north.☺

EDM1-240.GIF

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6z an improvement on the 00z. Seems that the 00z each day seems to be the worst run!

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17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

6z an improvement on the 00z. Seems that the 00z each day seems to be the worst run!

Just proves the models haven’t got a good handle on the positioning of low pressure and high pressure ridging next week. 

It’s anyones guess at the moment where the dividing line will be between unsettled, cool weather and warmer, more settled weather apart from the usual N/S split. The unsettled weather could affect just the north or the UK more widely. 

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3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

noaa's backing up the flat ops solution... its all looking pretty average with no major troughing nor ridging.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Got to say that NOAA has been flipping around  a fair bit too lately Mushy. It was starting to show ridging to the east yesterday.

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23 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

6z an improvement on the 00z

Yes you're right, much better 6z with more in the way of high pressure and some very pleasant warmth.☺

Edited by Frosty.
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5 hours ago, shotski said:

0z GFS and I’m still not seeing any return of the Heat wave we’ve just seen. Temperatures maxing out at 24-25 degrees which is perfect with variable cloud & rain and maybe the odd storm. Perfect. 

16F3C4A1-FD6E-497C-80DB-1C0C5D7272AA.gif

No idea what's causing it but the heat looks to miss Wales again for the third time in a fortnight. Even so those temperatures are just about average for August but below in Scotland & western Ireland too. 

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2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Got to say that NOAA has been flipping around  a fair bit too lately Mushy. It was starting to show ridging to the east yesterday.

yes there was a hint... its still there today (or last night). i was hoping subsequent runs would develop the evolution of it, but so far theres nothing. i wouldnt agree they have been 'flipping about'.. they predicted the troughing, then took it away northeastwards which is what the ops are now agreeing on. unlike some of the recent ops which were quick to bring back building pressure off the azores, the anomaly charts didnt support such a large rise in pressure. the ops are now agreeing with the generally flat westerly upper flow.

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UKMO very flat at T120, more meridional at T144:

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Some days on from there to get back to fine and settled, I would think, but it's a step in that direction.  Let's see what the models that go a bit further think.

Edited by Mike Poole

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GFS looks better on Wednesday and Thursday for England and Wales 

 

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Really like the GEM evolution tonight, here at T120, T198, T240:

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Puts the south back firmly in summer territory. I wonder if that feature in the Atlantic on the T120 chart is having an effect on this run? Maybe one to watch.

GFS at T240:

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edging towards a rebuild of summer only for the south, I think on this one.

Edited by Mike Poole

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6 hours ago, Singularity said:

The more eastern main Atlantic trough solutions continue to seem more suspect to me than the more western ones, based on the models moving the tropical setup further away from the Nino configuration than seems reasonable.

Ex-Bertha adds uncertainty in that it may interact with the main Atlantic trough in a way that brings about a 'trail' of lower SLP down near the Azores, displacing high pressure across us by late next week in the manner of the GFS 06z, but equally, it could remain independent of the Atlantic trough, allowing that feature to be much flatter in shape.

Even in that flatter scenario, though, I'd be surprised to see the main trough move as far east as the ECM 00z takes it. I'm of the impression that we'll have a fair bit of tropical maritime air coming our way next week, but with LP close enough by to wring some spells of rain out of that, particularly in the northwest where it could be very wet overall. Mild to very mild nights, but away from the south, near to below average daytime highs keeping indoor temperatures comfortable for those who don't like it hot.

 

Then for the final third of the month, we move into 'Nino-forcing proper', with a good chance of exchanging westerlies for a continental flow (for more than just the odd day). Models still need to adapt their tropical outlooks a bit for that to start being represented better.

Reading your post yesterday about the MJO coming out in phase 2 and seeing the westerly wind burst currently underway near the dateline as a result of the Nino static wave it seems to me that we might expect a higher amplitude MJO in phases 4-6 (assuming events persist) which would fit with some of the things spoken about.

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Quite an autumnal look to the Gfs 12z operational during late august.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Quite an autumnal look to the Gfs 12z operational during late august.

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Thank goodness!

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