Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

Recommended Posts

GFS showing a largely fine day in the SE on Saturday, much better than previous runs. 

After more of a low pressure influence for all on Monday, the GFS also shows a nice rebuild of pressure for the southern and central areas on Tuesday:

 

B0426348-6F76-455C-8754-4CE428A5E1E4.png

9FCA7543-62FC-4FE9-9986-F5248C566035.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Almost a Bartlett set-up. It's funny you don't hear that term outside the winter season.

GFSOPEU12_186_1.pngGFSOPUK12_189_1.png

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Almost a Bartlett set-up. It's funny you don't hear that term outside the winter season.

GFSOPEU12_186_1.pngGFSOPUK12_189_1.png

30 degrees showing too max for the UK, my area around 26

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like this wobble is going the same way as the last one!

ICON for Saturday looks fine for the SE now, T102:

image.thumb.jpg.0b705e0a21b56ec62b6c2f98b0377991.jpg

GEM has high pressure back in place at the end of the run T240:

image.thumb.jpg.11fc1fbfd930877604d23198912fc97c.jpg

😎

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All of this hinging on the trough digging out west to support the building high over the UK....if it doesn’t it will stay flat again. Wonder what ecm has to say later!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's some very good news from the Gfs 12z operational for anyone getting withdrawal symptoms during the coming less warm changeable period because the weekend becomes very warm again further s / se and  high pressure builds in at times through the run with further very warm spells, especially across england and wales...there's potentially still plenty of life left in this summer!☺  

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_mslp850.png

12_192_mslp500.png

12_192_uk2mtmp.png

12_198_mslp850.png

12_336_mslp500.png

12_360_mslp500.png

12_360_uk2mtmp.png

12_384_mslp500.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thankfully the GFS lala has any hot spell short lived. Even people who like heat are beginning to get fed up with it. Ideally we would see a return to the conditions in may which everyone seemed happy with.

One thing i noticed with the 12oz gfs that any rain has been shifted north so it looks like sunny Sheffield will still remain mostly dry in the reliable time frame.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

27/28c showing for the SE/E Anglia on Sunday. Too optimistic? 

 

7B627A48-7DFD-4F83-9C29-2D56C79CB934.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I'm interpreting the charts correctly, the GFS is suggesting 30C may be reached in the SE on Sunday, next Wednesday and next Thursday. Hmmm. Starting to look like the cool down has been over-exaggerated (including by me, I admit! :)

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, danm said:

27/28c showing for the SE/E Anglia on Sunday. Too optimistic? 

 

7B627A48-7DFD-4F83-9C29-2D56C79CB934.png

Mid 20s even pushing into Yorkshire. Would be a very big contrast to what the current forecasts show.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM also going for a much better Saturday across England and Wales:

 

C3B75349-5B12-425A-A7E6-7F44E1C410C9.png

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And a very warm Sunday also according to the ECM:

 

319D0209-351B-4259-8792-D048F9D8495B.png

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ecm stays pretty warm but low pressure really takes control. Really tough to know how this is going to end up next week!

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think we can say much meaningful about next week, if the models had Saturday this wrong, and I assume that tonight's output is now more or less correct at this range, we should have a considerable amount of scepticism about the output for next week at the moment! 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Autumn is well and truly coming in the later stages of the ECM . It would make a nice change for charts like this to come off . 

IMG_2479.PNG

IMG_2480.PNG

IMG_2481.PNG

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of the Ecm 12z looks warm / very warm, especially for the s / e / se..  those green snot charts are deceptive, the 850's show plenty of warm potential after the cooler blip between wed / fri...and even those days won't be cool, just less warm in comparison.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't look bad at all, certainly not autumnal, temperature wise there's plenty of warm weather indicated across at least the southern half of the uk, occasionally very warm further s / se  and there is some azores ridging influence at times further south..there is some cyclonic weather too but the bulk of the more unsettled weather is further n / nw and even there it's no washout!☺

EDM1-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this one of those moments where should just bin the lot of them? On the one hand, the ECM gives a surprise blast of heat followed by worst case scenario low. The GEFS on the other hand has members thinking of 2003. It's really all over the place. The wife wants to know when a good couple of days for camping will be next week, I haven't got a clue. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON 18z keen on super Saturday, T84, for the southeast at least!

image.thumb.jpg.260e4a1df93f813a4aa7b0b48835c038.jpg

Miles away from what was showing on the models over the last few days, I've still got in mind that Met Office contingency planners forecast of 55% likelihood of the hottest category going into Autumn.  Brave person to bet against it after tonight's output - after all, for some this was the point that summer ended 😁, if that can now be counted out that probability of 55% just increases! big time.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont fancy the end of the 12z ECM run, thank God it has no support.

ECM1-240_kax1.GIF

 

graphe_ens3_wna7.png

 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Dont fancy the end of the 12z ECM run, thank God it has no support.

ECM1-240_kax1.GIF

 

graphe_ens3_wna7.png

 

Yikes - that’s an outlier if you’ve ever seen one! Mean doesn’t look too bad.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Dont fancy the end of the 12z ECM run, thank God it has no support.

ECM1-240_kax1.GIF

 

graphe_ens3_wna7.png

 

About 15% support in tonight's clusters after D8, but the control is with it, and the other clusters though better are not really together either

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hmm.... begining to move in the right direction, the gradual evolution this far suggests pressure ridging to our east, troughing to our west?... we arent there yet but IF the current evolution progresses there could be tangible signs of more heat

 

814day.03b.gif

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still not sure what to make of the runs - perhaps the build of high pressure has been knocked on the head for now, and nothing more than a fleeting glance may prevail. No ensembles showing strong anticyclones such as from the last couple of days anyway.

ECMOPEU00_192_2.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.png

ECM has 850s around 15c towards the end of next week, though with an upper trough dominating, it could be very unstable, warm/hot and thundery.

Edited by mb018538

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM this morning up to low 80s in the east for Sunday, and then three days at the end of next week all well into the 80s. 

While the GFS goes in the complete opposite direction. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...