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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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I've seen much worse than this from the Ecm 12z..ok it's not as nice as we've become so used to this summer but it's far from a disaster isn't it!😀

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Ok I know I'm being selective here but I really don't give a 564 dam..😉

The GEFS 12z shows some very summery outcomes and I'm hoping for a grand finale to the wonderful summer of 2018 so fingers crossed some of these are right!🔥🙂

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Edited by Frosty.

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My honest opinion... though lots of output suggests another warm up after mid month, my gut feeling is that I've seen this before in August - an end to a good spell for a significant period of time, the models keep predicting a return to good weather, only for it to get flattened by yet another low nearer the time. 

Hopefully this time will be different, just as the summer so far has been. 

But my gut feeling is the north is not going to see much more hot weather this month. For the south, perhaps 2-3 day periods between fronts. And for peak temperatures, more like 25-27C than 30-33C.

(though tonight's ECM could produce 30C mid next week if it's right) 

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I think the pub run is bringing the high pressure back quicker so far, here the GFS 18z at T162:

image.thumb.jpg.1cbf7532b8ce96b57d9d5b1182981a7d.jpg

Compare with ECM at same time T168:

image.thumb.jpg.505ff27d509600f07929b0683de05cc2.jpg

😽

The GFS makes more of that feature in the Atlantic that pushes the high on, leading to this at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.63f5f6948d5da49353403235b86e112c.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

My honest opinion... though lots of output suggests another warm up after mid month, my gut feeling is that I've seen this before in August - an end to a good spell for a significant period of time, the models keep predicting a return to good weather, only for it to get flattened by yet another low nearer the time. 

Hopefully this time will be different, just as the summer so far has been. 

But my gut feeling is the north is not going to see much more hot weather this month. For the south, perhaps 2-3 day periods between fronts. And for peak temperatures, more like 25-27C than 30-33C.

(though tonight's ECM could produce 30C mid next week if it's right) 

Agree with this. 

I’m a huge lover of the heat and sun but I’m also a realist. 

It’s obvious that the pattern we had has gone and a more typical one for the UK has returned. The sustained warmth and dryness we had before will not return, can  pretty much guarantee that. We’re just left with mediocrity and the occasional 2-3 day warm spell. 

The writings on the wall everywhere you look. I had high hopes for this August but should have known better seeing as it’s been the curse of Summer since 2004.

SSW flow has abandoned us.  

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7 hours ago, matty007 said:

Agree with this. 

I’m a huge lover of the heat and sun but I’m also a realist. 

It’s obvious that the pattern we had has gone and a more typical one for the UK has returned. The sustained warmth and dryness we had before will not return, can  pretty much guarantee that. We’re just left with mediocrity and the occasional 2-3 day warm spell. 

The writings on the wall everywhere you look. I had high hopes for this August but should have known better seeing as it’s been the curse of Summer since 2004.

SSW flow has abandoned us.  

Mediocrity...I will take it any time over the heatwave in SW Europe. It is not all doom and gloom, it could be much worse, it will still feel summery, don't need 30C to celebrate Summer, 20C is just right. We are lucky living on this Island without very extreme heatwaves (so far), you have to endure some Atlantic influence in return. I see no washout or cold for the season on the models (currently). I will now go outside and enjoy the Summer! :)

Edited by rain_shadow

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Still very difficult to give an accurate assessment as to where we end up after next week!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png

Ensembles hovering around or just above average, no clear signal. Still some very warm 10-15c runs in there mind you.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/08/06/12/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018080612_240.png

Last
nights ECM clusters weren't as clear cut as the 00z ones either. Still generally high pressure dominated more than low pressure, but not as emphatic. The 00z runs not really showing too much either. Staying around average looks the best bet for now, with sunshine and showers.

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10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

My honest opinion... though lots of output suggests another warm up after mid month, my gut feeling is that I've seen this before in August - an end to a good spell for a significant period of time, the models keep predicting a return to good weather, only for it to get flattened by yet another low nearer the time. 

Hopefully this time will be different, just as the summer so far has been. 

But my gut feeling is the north is not going to see much more hot weather this month. For the south, perhaps 2-3 day periods between fronts. And for peak temperatures, more like 25-27C than 30-33C.

(though tonight's ECM could produce 30C mid next week if it's right) 

i agree. the noaa's 500mb charts do not suggest any significant ridging or troughing ( 8-14 dayer) but a moderate westerly upper flow.  a pretty bog standard normal august outlook then which is still better then most recent augusts.

 

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7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i agree. the noaa's 500mb charts do not suggest any significant ridging or troughing ( 8-14 dayer) but a moderate westerly upper flow.  a pretty bog standard normal august outlook then which is still better then most recent augusts.

 

Looks about right to me.

ECM1-240.GIF?07-12ECM0-240.GIF?07-12

That's hardly a bad day 10 chart - 850s are 10-14c across a good chunk of the country. Nothing like recent terrible August months we've had to endure.

Edited by mb018538

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Morning all :)

General agreement (though not on the detail) of LP encroaching from the NW and crossing the British Isles through the second half of the weekend and into early next week so a disappointing few days after the spell we've enjoyed or endured (delete as appropriate) with temperatures closer to what we would expect and some of the wet stuff though not perhaps in the quantities some would like.

After that (really from this time next week) it becomes much more confused - ECM settles us into an uninspiring westerly so average for all but GFS 00Z OP tries to build back in the Azores HP in various ways as does GEM but it's a little uncertain and half-hearted at this stage but obviously more runs are needed.

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Some of the differences in the longer range modelling seem to stem from the Arctic with the Euro keeping heights strong. The GFS weakens these somewhat. 

There are also tropical differences with GFS suggesting a burst of westerlies just west of the dateline..

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Some of the differences in the longer range modelling seem to stem from the Arctic with the Euro keeping heights strong. The GFS weakens these somewhat. 

There are also tropical differences with GFS suggesting a burst of westerlies just west of the dateline..

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

Yes... quite the difference in handling of the tropical progression during the week ahead. 

It's been known for a while that a new tropical cycle should get going soon, but the general expectation has been for this to be around mid-month, so GEFS is surprisingly fast. Yet the observation data from the past few days has shown continued activity when ECMF predicted a rapid decline - and yesterday saw that model give in a bit and show the activity sticking around for a bit longer.

I expect a lot of this is down to the presence of a couple of large tropical cyclones in the E and C Pac, especially the C Pac one, Hector, which looks to make quite a close pass of Hawaii (but hopefully keep most of its circulation to the south). How far north or south this tracks will have a big impact on the trades in the locality, and there's still enough uncertainty to account for at least some of the disagreement displayed above.

 

Tropical cyclones do sometimes give the atmosphere a kick which I believe may be capable of producing a temporary swing toward an either Nina-like or Nino-like state.

Hector may also be a major factor in how the Arctic heights evolve; if in a week or so's time it tracks into the N. Pacific and undergoes powerful extratropical transition into a broad trough, that could potentially pump a lot of unusually warm air up across the Arctic at high altitude, which would then sink down and produce a strong anticyclone over the Pacific side of the basin.

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no comments on the gfs 06z?..

its a corker for heat... with high pressure in control for days.

pity it has precious little support, heres hoping the anomaly charts switch to something more anticyclonic later today.

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5 hours ago, rain_shadow said:

Mediocrity...I will take it any time over the heatwave in SW Europe. It is not all doom and gloom, it could be much worse, it will still feel summery, don't need 30C to celebrate Summer, 20C is just right. We are lucky living on this Island without very extreme heatwaves (so far), you have to endure some Atlantic influence in return. I see no washout or cold for the season on the models (currently). I will now go outside and enjoy the Summer!

I never implied it was complete doom and gloom and neither did I say it would be a washout. 

I’m simply saying that in comparison to what we’ve had, it’s really rather poor with much more rain and cloud, at least in my location, and average/below average temperatures. 

I’m just saying that the weather we’ve had is unlikely to return. 

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8 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I never implied it was complete doom and gloom and neither did I say it would be a washout. 

I’m simply saying that in comparison to what we’ve had, it’s really rather poor with much more rain and cloud, at least in my location, and average/below average temperatures. 

I’m just saying that the weather we’ve had is unlikely to return. 

Well the GFS 6z should at least put some doubt to your prediction. Not saying it’s correct, but there you go.

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

no comments on the gfs 06z?..

its a corker for heat... with high pressure in control for days.

pity it has precious little support, heres hoping the anomaly charts switch to something more anticyclonic later today.

Was just about to comment, it's the best op run I've seen for ages. To be fair, the ops have been suggesting a high pressure build around mid-month for a while now, with a few small setbacks here and there. The ECM wasn't quite as encouraging for that this morning but it will be interesting to see what the 12z runs bring.

I really feel that we haven't seen the last of the heat this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a more encouraging outlook later on.

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Anyone wanting to see the lovely Gfs 6z operational charts..here you go.☺:drinks:

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06_348_ukthickness850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp850.png

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gefsens850london0.png

It's a bit of an outlier - though not exclusively so.

Interestingly, there is an increasing number of runs really stepping up the heat again around the 15th. For balance there are just as many that don't buy it at all and stay cooler.

You'd probably say as it stands there is around a 40% chance of things turning settled and much warmer again, with a 60% chance of the cooler/average conditions winning out. Dry-ish either way.

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Anyone wanting to see the lovely Gfs 6z operational charts..here you go.☺

06_252_mslp500.png

06_252_uk2mtmp.png

06_276_mslp500.png

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06_300_mslp500.png

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06_324_mslp850.png

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06_348_ukthickness850.png

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06_372_mslp850.png

Camping in Kettlewell with the kids will be much more enjoyable if these charts verify. 

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When its in range though. Nothing lovely about it being an FI outlier. Its the cool and unsettled road now i'm afraid.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

 

I really feel that we haven't seen the last of the heat this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a more encouraging outlook later on.

 

im in two minds tbh, we have been here before especially in 06 and 13 on here very few thought it was over come august - plenty of the usual 'too early to write it off' ..... but it sadly wasnt.

on the other hand im not getting the feel that its over, and am mindful of what the likes of tamara has been saying. my only concern is that atm theres no real sign in the anomalies that support the more progressive operational runs.

but at worst its looking 'normal' , which for august isnt actually bad! (ignoring many recent augusts).

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Well comparing yesterdays UKMO 120 with todays 96, Saturday may not be that unsettled in southern and central areas at all if this continued.

UW96-21.GIF

UW120-21.GIF

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12 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Well comparing yesterdays UKMO 120 with todays 96, Saturday may not be that unsettled in southern and central areas at all if this continued.

UW96-21.GIF

UW120-21.GIF

Wow thats a huge change and to be fair ecm is showing a lovely warm day aswell across england and wales with temps around mid twenties!!at one point all models were showing a washout for saturday!!massive change in the last 12 hours!!

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