Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[ICE COLD]

28 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Nothing average about the weather models going forward in the South.

Apart from a day or two next week when temperatures might drop to 22c-24c as a maximum in the SE, the term hotter and drier would be the best overall description next week.

Looks quite average on the GEFS ensembles after the next few days are out of the way . 

And the ECM 00z looks average after the next few days too .

[johnholmes]

It does amuse me how two totally different views on the same model over the same time scale occur so often.

To find out what the temperature level is simply click on the link below and check the 1500 temperatures for each day for the next 10 days and make your own mind up!

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=1473754631b36ffb6b2ef898950e076a

[Frosty.]

Nice Gfs 00z operational for the most part, at least across england and wales, plenty of warm fine high pressure / strong ridging and most of any unsettled atlantic weather brushing across the far north..and the next few days out to and including next tuesday look hot further s / se.. it takes until next wednesday to drop down into the mid 20's celsius.. a very short cooler fresher blip for all and then warming up again.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean further ahead towards mid month and beyond, I've seen much worse, this doesn't look bad at all with plenty of azores ridge influence, especially later..fingers crossed we see plenty more warm fine weather for the rest of this mostly great meteorological summer. 

[markyo]

35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean further ahead towards mid month and beyond, I've seen much worse, this doesn't look bad at all with plenty of azores ridge influence, especially later..fingers crossed we see plenty more warm fine weather for the rest of this mostly great meteorological summer. 



Looking like a perfect August to me!

[Man With Beard]

Clusters this morning - ridging starting to head our way by 13th though may still be clearing at this time

By mid month, not as unanimous on a ridge close to the UK this morning but still the preferred option on the whole, for the 5th run in a row

[sunnijim]

4 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Looks quite average on the GEFS ensembles after the next few days are out of the way . 

And the ECM 00z looks average after the next few days too .

Ensembles can chop and change too of course.

 Just as a point of reference it might be worth adding the August averages for a few parts over England and then seeing if things play out according to the above, or end up on the warmer side, which to me the models have depicted in recent days  after an 'average' day on Thursday perhaps.

London 23c

Birmingham 21c

Newquay 19c

Ipswich 22c.

[Singularity]

A better idea of the route forward seems to be coming together across the modelling in general now.

Thu 9th - Sun 12th: A period of no majorly dominant forcing - just the weak underlying Nino - meaning we see a mixed period with some ridges from the southwest and some troughs from the west, with a chance that ridging will be across us more than troughs if the Nino state has enough influence. Snapshots below illustrate the overall pattern nicely (just apply typical eastward progression of troughs and ridges).

 

Early-mid part of the following week: The Azores High is increasingly subdued by troughs moving in to set up shop near the so-named islands. Some ridging is developing across NW Europe and S. UK, but until the next Nino-type cycle of AAM gets underway, we're prone to continued changeable westerlies, though likely veering to the SW more often than during the preceding period, with temperatures relatively warm (particularly by night but also by day out of the rain), as we spend much of the time under the influence of the warm sectors of LP systems.

 

Thereafter: Riding should gain the upper hand across at least the SE'rn third of the UK (but probably more) and then extend into Scandinavia, perhaps becoming focused there before long. A good chance that the Atlantic troughs will struggle to make inroads for at least a few days.

 

Now - let's see how many complications can manifest on top of that sequence .

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean there's increasing azores high / ridge influence for the uk towards mid month and especiallty beyond..even stronger signal than the 00z!☺

[Mike Poole]

Models this afternoon at T144:

UKMO, GFS, GEM and ICON:

High pressure only for the south here, less settled for the north.  Blip seems a bit bigger this afternoon, but not terminal!

[summer blizzard]

Putting aside the minor movements north and south that we have seen run to run in recent days the 12z models tonight (UKMO and GFS) largely suggest that the outlook to day 7 remains broadly the same as it has for a number of days now. Namely warmer and drier the further south you are but not remarkably warm or cold (though GFS does want to give me a single digit minimum next Saturday night). 

Fairly average with a mean cyclonic westerly flow..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looks to me on the 12z that summer is over from mid-week onwards, although it was over at end of July away from the South. been quite a poor mans 1976/1995 lately for the majority of the country away from the SE with no real warmth or sunshine.  All plume signals have gone and we're now left with a little n/s split for a few days before Atlantic mobility and possibility of deeper lows as August progresses along with a temperature drop, ensembles show support and a good signal for this.  Rainfall is expected to be patchy in the South and more prolonged and wetter in the North.

[Frosty.]

Much cooler more showery cyclonic spell on the way according to the Gfs 12z operational but before that, the south and especially the southeast still has plenty of hot sunny weather to come in the next 3 days with maxima close to 32c 90f and a growing risk of thunderstorms but then the cooler more changeable mostly showery conditions already well established further n / w spread to remaining areas. Further ahead this gfs run almost produces another plume and the s / e warm up considerably again for a time, there are also some wet spells during week 2 but then the end of the run looks more promising with high pressure to the south and east. 

Edited August 4, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 12z i'm seeing increasing support for high pressure to return around mid august but more especially beyond, there are some warm / very warm anticyclonic perturbations during that period. On balance i'm thinking north / south split with the more changeable / unsettled and coolest weather tending to be across northern uk with southern areas having some azores ridge influence, ergo, the best chance of decent fine and warmer spells at times.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a gradual change through next week as a trough swings down from the NW across the uk bringing cooler showery conditions to all areas but mon / tues will be hot and humid across the southeast quarter of england with sunshine and a growing risk of thunderstorms before the cooler fresher air arrives from the NW during midweek but then towards the end of next week the trough slowly fills in-situ and we develop a ridge over the uk with reduction in showers and increase in fine weather and sunshine and warmer temperatures.

[mb018538]

Looking like a week of something more traditional and closer to average from midweek onwards - nothing disastrous mind you, temps around average and not a washout. Certainly nowhere near as bad as some august months we’ve had in tinge last decade! After mid month - who knows. Chances of a tropical system spinning up in the mid Atlantic - now monitored by NOAA - which could throw a curveball into the general situation through next week.

[Man With Beard]

Max temperatures on ECM tonight for next few days (adding the usual 2C to the raw output) :

Sunday 30c

Monday 31C 

Tuesday 33C or 34C

Wednesday maybe still 27C or 28C in far SE

After that, though, daily maximums from Thursday 9th out to Monday 13th are never above 25C, and possibly 22-23C on some days. 

So all parts of the country likely to go through something more average. 

Looking at all the ensembles of the past few days, we're likely to see an increase in temps again around the 14-18th, but it will require something pretty special to get another run of 30C+ days again in 2018.

[Mike Poole]

GFS parallel/FV3 seems to have the worst and best of both worlds. Sticks the  low right over  us at T192 and likewise with the high at T348:

There's obviously quite a lot for the models to work out before we know where we're going beyond mid next week.

[Portland Paul]

GFS 18z run sticks us straight back into the furnace by next weekend, then keeps a stubborn strong high over southern Scandi, with bags of heat and humidity around in a slack continental flow and a few scattered T-storms especially in the west... Is this signs of the epic 2018 summer putting the icing on the cake??? 

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, Portland Paul said:

GFS 18z run sticks us straight back into the furnace by next weekend, then keeps a stubborn strong high over southern Scandi, with bags of heat and humidity around in a slack continental flow and a few scattered T-storms especially in the west... Is this signs of the epic 2018 summer putting the icing on the cake??? 

No it doesn't and no it isn't. No icing. No cake, not on this run any road.

Edited August 4, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mapantz]

8 minutes ago, Portland Paul said:

GFS 18z run sticks us straight back into the furnace by next weekend, then keeps a stubborn strong high over southern Scandi, with bags of heat and humidity around in a slack continental flow and a few scattered T-storms especially in the west... Is this signs of the epic 2018 summer putting the icing on the cake??? 

Were you looking at the 00Z?

[Djdazzle]

To be fair it wouldn’t take much shifting to make the 18z into a hot run. That LP next weekend needs to stay out west for a start.

[summer blizzard]

There's a warm sector of 10C+ uppers on Saturday and Sunday on the 18z however low pressure is firmly in charge. 

[mb018538]

Looking like a fairly significant area of low pressure moving in through next weekend now. Potential for gales and heavy rain. Also the danger that it could get stuck in our vicinity too - another one to keep eyes on.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

if the  models are right  there might be a change a foot after about  54 hr  we need  RAIN!!