Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Mike Poole]

UKMO has the blip as a blink and you miss it affair at least for the south with the ridge building back at T144:

GFS goes into a parallel dimension with the low in the North Sea, as others have said, I can't imagine what it's on!  So I won't post that one, I think it can be binned.

GEM a little longer to try to build the ridge back in here at T240:

ICON has high pressure back in the south T180:

For those who want summer to continue, it's good output today, particularly in he south.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Weather-history]

46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 Interesting to see Norwich's rainfall ensembles.  

 

Lol, it's a massive outlier, surprise, surprise.

Absolutely ridiculous on Thetford's ensembles

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=4&bw=&geoid=47862

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Weather-history

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean I fancy we are going to see a north / south split during the extended outlook period with some azores ridge influence keeping southern uk predominantly fine and warm, especially the s / se whereas northern uk looks to be in a more atlantic driven cooler / changeable regime but still with some settled warmer interludes / intervals. As for the near future, the s / se have a hot sunny weekend to come and it stays hot and becomes more humid early next week with an increasing chance of catching a thunderstorm but then through midweek the cooler, fresher more changeable conditions already well established further n / w spread further s / se to remaining areas but then later next week the azores ridge builds back in across southern areas.

[Mike Poole]

Here's the take from the GFS parallel/FV3.  The trough is here T144:

Such as it is.  But it's transitory, T168 has 1020 mbar into the south:

This looks like a continuation of decent summer weather in the south, and it's far from horrific for the north either. 

Reports of the demise of summer 2018 have been greatly exaggerated.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

3 hours ago, Tamara said:

I'm not sure that the satellite image will show when posted beyond a still image (?) but the full real-time moving image can be seen from the main link. Anyway, from the imagery the storm cloud is depicted heading north westward from the tropics in association with a current uptick in trade winds which are scrubbing out some of the westerly wind bursts in association with recent passage of MJO activity. Also visible is Hurricane Hector south of Hawaii.

Here's an animated GIF from a different angle that seems to be more friendly with the forum software.

...or not! Clearly more limited than I thought so it'll need a click to open in a new tab and view.

 

Starting to see a stronger signal from the models for high pressure to get back on the scene by Thu/Fri next week, though this may only bring much benefit southern parts much for a little while (4-8 days) as we await the next upward surge in AAM, with northern parts staying more changeable - though even the south is liable to see a bit of rain at times from trailing fronts.

In lower-res (past day 10), the GFS 12z has made quite a dramatic jump onto the El Nino cycle bandwagon in terms of the pattern response, so much so that the Scandinavian high could be argued to be arriving a little fast on that run, though in my opinion there's enough uncertainty with the timing of the cycle initiation to make it just about feasible.

Watching the 12z ECM keenly as it rolls out, as the 00z was the most Nina-like, hence hard to take seriously, in terms of the orientation of the jet stream across the UK.

Like GFS, it has however found a complication at +144, though not in anywhere near such a violent manner;

The reduced westerly momentum (as the lack of Nina forcing is realised ever-further) has given rise in the model output to the possibility that the frontal boundary will fail to make a clean sweep through the continent just to our east, instead stalling out and undergoing a second round of LP development.

GFS brings about it's crazy storm for EA and company via an unusually strong and sharp hook in the jet stream back toward the UK. A very rare phenomenon so not something to bet your house on (but I don't imagine many thought so even without the jet stream information!).

ECM looks more sensible with a weaker feature that may produce some instability across eastern parts, where it could stay very warm for a couple more days than otherwise looked likely. 
What the run does now depends on the upstream pattern and how the jet orientates as a result. Hopefully not so Nina-like on this occasion!

Edited August 3, 2018 by Singularity
The wonders of technology... oh wait.

[Mike Poole]

Would you Adam and Eve it?

ECM at T168!

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Would you Adam and Eve it?

ECM at T168!

Well I obviously didn't see that one coming. An even rarer event to see such a system arrive from the east!

I'm tempted to call it laughable... but actually I won't, as even thousand-to-one chances do happen sometimes.

Earlier comments regarding what happens still apply, regardless.

 

Resembles a warm-core system, possibly subtropical.

Yeah, it's that rarefied!

Edited August 3, 2018 by Singularity
Image

[mb018538]

Ecm bringing that nasty low into play on the east coast too. Looks like gales or severe gales for a time if that verifies, along with a bucketload of heavy rain!

[Frosty.]

The residual warmth really takes most of next week to clear away from the SE on the Ecm 12z..finally turns properly fresher next friday!..early next week, especially tuesday looks very hot and sultry across the southeast of england.

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Ecm bringing that nasty low into play on the east coast too. Looks like gales or severe gales for a time if that verifies, along with a bucketload of heavy rain!

Comparing with GFS and the compactness of isobars, where that model peaks at near 60 mph wind gusts, I can see 80+ mph from the ECM version.

Funny thing is, it then makes quite the jump over to Scandinavia during the following 24 hours.

It's a near-miss for north-eastern England on this particular run. 

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Would you Adam and Eve it?

ECM at T168!

According to weather.us, 96mph gusts not far from the east coast!!!! 

[Frosty.]

There really isn't anything cool as such across the south on this Ecm 12z run, indeed, later in the run the uk is bathed in warm air again, especially the south..the next 4 days or so look hot or very hot across the s / se.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Frosty.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Well after the gales, rain & thundery showers last weekend here in the SW, there could be yet another deep low developing at the end of next week but this time in the east where it could be unseasonably cool too. Elsewhere doesn't look as cool, wet & windy (except in NW Scotland) but perhaps the temperatures below the August average under that low (IF of course it develops).

Edited August 3, 2018 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[CheesepuffScott]

Wow look at those gales

!

[summer blizzard]

Upper low embedded in the westerly flow hits the European warmth, thermal gradient then does the rest.

 

 

Think some of you are overdoing the pro-warmth talk, the word to describe warmer and drier in the south is average.

[Mike Poole]

The ECM ensemble mean looking pretty good I'd say at T168.  I've picked that time because of the North Sea storm on the GFS and ECM op runs, only small sign of it here:

Higher uncertainty on the spread in that region though, so some ensemble members are probably showing it too.  One to watch.  Otherwise, It's high pressure building back into the south, not as hot as we've been, maybe some thundery outbreaks, but no way is this going to be the usual write off August.  

FIM9 12z also showing decent pressure rise into next weekend, here T192:

So now we've had the full set of the 12s, my assessment is that the summer is over theory can be put to bed, and that the background signals are leading the models, not the other way around.  Have a good weekend folks.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Wow look at those gales

!

I would certainly be taking a trip to the Norfolk coast to film the effects of that, should it verify. Pretty sure there’s spring tides due next week also.... gulp! 

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, Singularity said:

Comparing with GFS and the compactness of isobars, where that model peaks at near 60 mph wind gusts, I can see 80+ mph from the ECM version.

Funny thing is, it then makes quite the jump over to Scandinavia during the following 24 hours.

It's a near-miss for north-eastern England on this particular run. 

This seems to go totally against the nino signal of Atlantic trough and scandi heights. Instead we have Atlantic ridge and pressure falling over scandi. 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This seems to go totally against the nino signal of Atlantic trough and scandi heights. Instead we have Atlantic ridge and pressure falling over scandi. 

Funny you should say that

the latest from cpc has the same,days 6-10 and 8-14

maybe preasure rising from the Azures after then but i ain't looking that far ahead.

 

[BruenSryan]

And..... GFS OP goes from exceptionally wet and even stormy next Friday on the 12z to absolutely nothing on the 18z.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters again on the hotter side by mid month - this is tonight for the 18th, all clusters potentially hot

[summer blizzard]

36 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This seems to go totally against the nino signal of Atlantic trough and scandi heights. Instead we have Atlantic ridge and pressure falling over scandi. 

As per the NOAA chart heights have increased over the pole and the signal from the Tropics is different to early summer (though still supportive of that general background pattern). Both these factors appear to have given an atypical signal. 

[Djdazzle]

GFS 18z now has the breakdown as a small blip next week. It goes plume tastic in FI!

Have we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat?

[mother nature rocks]

Really nice GFS 0z overall. Have the blip from middle to end of next week then high pressure rolls back in from the Azores and pretty much remains in our area for the remainder of the run. 

MNR

[sunnijim]

10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Upper low embedded in the westerly flow hits the European warmth, thermal gradient then does the rest.

 

 

Think some of you are overdoing the pro-warmth talk, the word to describe warmer and drier in the south is average.

Nothing average about the weather models going forward in the South.

Apart from a day or two next week when temperatures might drop to 22c-24c as a maximum in the SE, the term hotter and drier would be the best overall description next week.

Edited August 4, 2018 by sunnijim