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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Completely agree, while the forecast medium term is amazing, the real scorching stuff never gets closer than 6-8days, remember GFS and ECM were flagging mid 30's at times for this coming weekend only 4-5 days ago. If it could stay 28-30C for the rest of summer I'd be the happiest person in the world however I have a feeling (although no evidence) at short notice the trough sharpen and bring an abrupt end to hot weather later next week. 

That's also completely untrue - check back through the ECM 00z/12z runs for the last week, none of them show anything like mid 30s for the weekend, if anything the prospects have improved over time.

In fact 8 days ago on the ECM forecast we had a low slapped over the UK on the ECM:

ECM1-216.GIF?12

Generalised sweeping statements like that aren't really helpful to anyone, and just plain untrue.

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Not a bad finish to the Gem 00z..the next day would be even hotter!🔥🔥🌞:shok:

231_mslp850.png

231_uk2mtmp.png

Oh boy I like the look of that lovely cooler, fresher air in the west, in fact the west coast of Wales drops to 19C! Is it too early to crack open a bottle yet and celebrate the expected arrival of much cooler weather after all the recent heat lol? 

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Longer term, the GEFS 00z mean looks Fabulous doesn't it..the same goes for the short / medium range too, especially further s / e which becomes hot, stays hot with potential to become very hot!:shok:🙂🌞🌩️🌡️😎

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21_330_500mb.png

21_354_2mtmpmax.png

21_354_500mb.png

21_378_2mtmpmax.png

21_378_500mb.png

21_378_850tmp.png

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Automated forecasts are hopeless, including the MO ones mentioned above. No human input. They are always several degrees too high in winter and several degrees too low in summer. Every time temperatures this summer have got into the low 30’s, apps have only shown highs in the mid to high 20’s. Every time we’ve reached the mid to high twenties in my location, apps have only predicted highs in the low 20’s.

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Although it does sadly appear that we get somewhat of a plume next weekend it thankfully (bar occasional runs) looks to have been watered down a bit. We now get quite a cyclonic flow lasting 2-3 days at most (though beforehand it will still be very warm for most of next week). The plus i suppose is that by being fairly cyclonic we still have a chance at a more permanent ending. 

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

GFSOPEU00_168_33.png

Small progress for those of who are done with summer in the long run but another very warm week (and likely humid towards the weekend) to come. 

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Not a good 06gfs way too progressive with that low in the atlantic!!and its a few runs in a row its been doing that and its starting to become a worry!!

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6z evolving as I anticipated following on from yesterday's downgrades, yet my comments get dismissed. Lots of people including BBC looking to have egg on face for predicting ludicrous temps that were always well into fi

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Just now, shaky said:

Not a good 06gfs way too progressive with that low in the atlantic!!and its a few runs in a row its been doing that and its starting to become a worry!!

But it's so different from the last run at 144 as to how it handles the LP. It's the typical GFS intra run variability.

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Automated forecasts are hopeless, including the MO ones mentioned above. No human input. They are always several degrees too high in winter and several degrees too low in summer. Every time temperatures this summer have got into the low 30’s, apps have only shown highs in the mid to high 20’s. Every time we’ve reached the mid to high twenties in my location, apps have only predicted highs in the low 20’s.

Absolutely, MS: they're about as much use any 'forecast' that swings back-and-forth with each-and-every model run...None whatsoever?:good:

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Not a good 06gfs way too progressive with that low in the atlantic!!and its a few runs in a row its been doing that and its starting to become a worry!!

It will be wrong m8.. imho.

Gfs overdoing the Atlantic ..whats new?

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14 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Although it does sadly appear that we get somewhat of a plume next weekend it thankfully (bar occasional runs) looks to have been watered down a bit. We now get quite a cyclonic flow lasting 2-3 days at most (though beforehand it will still be very warm for most of next week). The plus i suppose is that by being fairly cyclonic we still have a chance at a more permanent ending. 

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

GFSOPEU00_168_33.png

Small progress for those of who are done with summer in the long run but another very warm week (and likely humid towards the weekend) to come. 

Well with the jet axis going S-N once the trough lifts northwards we reset with high pressure building back in.

Sorry to those with a winter cold bias but the pattern is different this summer and is very much dominated by anticyclonic weather, above average temperatures, sunshine and below average rainfall. See you in November ☺️

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A plume is always high risk/high reward. You have a shot at record breaking temperatures but also risk having all the heat being blown away.

The models will continue to struggle with the position of the LP in the Atlantic, some runs will have it stay anchored out west, others will be more progressive and push it further east across the UK. We won't know what the outcome will be until much nearer the time. Even if the LP pushes east, will that be temporary and will we see the Azores high rebuild? We will have to wait and see.

Edited by danm

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A so so GFS not good for vulnerable people and their carers as we tend to keep the heat. Since GFS tends to over do the rainfall recently and under do the temperatures not much good for gardeners either. Okay if you're on a holiday though.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It will be wrong m8.. imho.

Gfs overdoing the Atlantic ..whats new?

It's only really worrying for those wanting extreme heat. @SizzlingHeat refutes those who were foolish enough to comment on the hot weather modeled at the time (how dare they) 🙄😄 I'm sure these people knew it could push too far east for a UK-wide heatwave but were simply commenting on the output. Perhaps the plume will be too far east - the trough stronger than previously thought - and some western areas will get a little wet, but long-term the pattern is set with any unsettled interlude short-lived and a swift return to high pressure, dryness and warmth for many 😎

If we're worrying now it only enforces what a treat we've had so far this summer  - "oh no, perhaps it won't be 35C, only 30C in the SE now" 😂😁 

Lovely charts, a bit of interest later next week, and plenty of summery weather to enjoy 😍 

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2 hours ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Looks like the real extreme heat is being pushed back again, and gradually the LP is getting closer to the UK. 

 not according to the anomaly charts which keep the mean upper trough well to our west

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It will be wrong m8.. imho.

Gfs overdoing the Atlantic ..whats new?


exactly, which is why i dont take much heed of the ops IF they differ somewhat from the anomaly charts. 

the 06z again isnt very clever, it, in itself, is unlikely to be accurate. the overall outlook is still one with great heat potential  with a few thundery spells thrown in.. its a fantastic outlook for late july/early august, the best easily since 03 if not 95.

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I think many are suffering from 'model heatwave fatigue'..... i.e anything short of 33c is just....well.....'meh'.......28c is just so 'yesterday'

my thoughts on the overnight runs and this mornings 6z GFS are that they are just variations on an overall theme....low pressure parked to the west of the UK allowing a southerly draw with inter-run model runs moving the LP eastwards/westwards like the flip of a coin.....take for example the following atlantic/euro T850/pressure charts...These are snapshots from the 00z & 06z GFS at T174 which is bordering into FI.....to my eyes it is a variation on a theme, in this instance, the model deepens the atlantic low by a few hpa and changes the orientation of it, the result being the southerly draw morphing into a SWerly flow, something that will probably change in future runs in one way or another

 00z355651949_00xt174.thumb.png.dad87aa2a32014f717c8736a25d5170e.png      06z 109426808_06zgfs.thumb.png.1563254070cd010775f05b5ecb8a2211.png

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Even a more unsettled 06z run doesn't bring a lot of rain for a lot of England and Wales. A week on Sunday. Can you have "dry" lows? 

GFSOPUK06_231_18.png

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8 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

Well with the jet axis going S-N once the trough lifts northwards we reset with high pressure building back in.

Sorry to those with a winter cold bias but the pattern is different this summer and is very much dominated by anticyclonic weather, above average temperatures, sunshine and below average rainfall. See you in November ☺️

That's very possible and the 0z GFS did show what you suggest however the default pattern may be a little different now given that from mid-April to mid-June we had two very large waves cross the Tropical Pacific, that forcing now no longer exists (we have an MJO forecast to die and residual high GLAAM). That's not to say you are not correct, the default pattern of this summer may simply be too good. 

At any rate, 6z produces a cold outlier most likely. Cold front has moved through by day 8. 

GFSOPEU06_192_33.png

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12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 not according to the anomaly charts which keep the mean upper trough well to our west


exactly, which is why i dont take much heed of the ops IF they differ somewhat from the anomaly charts. 

the 06z again isnt very clever, it, in itself, is unlikely to be accurate. the overall outlook is still one with great heat potential  with a few thundery spells thrown in.. its a fantastic outlook for late july/early august, the best easily since 03 if not 95.

Anomaly charts only tell you where lower pressure is in relation to higher pressure and vice versa, they don't tell you exactly where the LP or HP is going to set up. 50/100 miles is going to make a lot of difference to weather on the ground in these situations.  I believe they also do not get it right all of the time (a 70% success rate maybe?)

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls

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2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Completely agree, while the forecast medium term is amazing, the real scorching stuff never gets closer than 6-8days, remember GFS and ECM were flagging mid 30's at times for this coming weekend only 4-5 days ago. If it could stay 28-30C for the rest of summer I'd be the happiest person in the world however I have a feeling (although no evidence) at short notice the trough sharpen and bring an abrupt end to hot weather later next week. 

Surprise surprise, what does the 06Z run do.........

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12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Even a more unsettled 06z run doesn't bring a lot of rain for a lot of England and Wales. A week on Sunday. Can you have "dry" lows? 

GFSOPUK06_231_18.png

I've lost track of the number of times GFS has predicted 10mm or more for this location and yet we still have less than 1mm to date for the entire month. Those charts are really not reliable at all.

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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I've lost track of the number of times GFS has predicted 10mm or more for this location and yet we still have less than 1mm to date for the entire month. Those charts are really not reliable at all.

That will end at some time. Just a matter of when.

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7 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Anomaly charts only tell you where lower pressure is in relation to higher pressure and vice versa, they don't tell you exactly where the LP or HP is going to set up. 50/100 miles is going to make a lot of difference to weather on the ground in these situations.  I believe they also do not get it right all of the time (a 70% success rate maybe?)

But still a fair bit better than issuing a new (and often drastically altered) 'forecast', each and every time a new model-run is published?

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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That will end at some time. Just a matter of when.

Of course it will - but it doesn't take a Mystic Meg to figure that out, unless you think our current dry, warm weather is going to last until Christmas.

Until a breakdown is within the reliable time frame I will pay it no heed. 

Edited by cheese

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