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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
36 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

. Models have been acting up this summer predicting breakdowns which never came to be.

that was true earlier on, but no model predicted the intensity of the current trough which has proven to be a far more aggressive feature then expected. the odd run that did, was dismissed as an 'outlier' (and im as guilty of that as anyone else).

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro and GFS6z at odds as early as day 8..

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

GFSOPEU06_192_33.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro and GFS6z at odds as early as day 8..

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

GFSOPEU06_192_33.png

Just the same in the winter months too,never hardly agree.Still no sign of any prolonged unsettled weather in the models,despite what some seem keen on good news for the holiday season and the outdoor sports enthusiasts .Be keeping keen eye  on the models to see if they still going for the mega temps in Portugal ,125f ,in the shade

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

No exaggeration, the Gfs 6z operational is a hot run for the s / se of the uk with temperatures into the low 30's celsius at times (especially london & southeast) with some plumey conditions bringing a risk of thunderstorms but plenty of hot, dry and sunny weather too..even further n / nw it's warm / very warm for most of the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

It would be a very boring world if we knew that the models were always going to be correct out to 180!

Some great analysis in here today.

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Posted
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: 22-38C in summer with storms, cold in winter with some snow/or 15-25C
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex

Fully expecting on upgrade on forecasts for Monday/Tuesday, 30-32c certainly achievable on both days with thunder possibility later on Tuesday.

gfs-0-156.png?12

 

Would be very shocked if 51c occured in Portugal but certainly 45c which is a massive shift from how summer has gone down there so far, Lisbon and Porto have been running well below average temperatures for a number of months.

Edited by 95 Degrees
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Many thanks as always Tamara!

In my experience, it's the times when the atmosphere is being pulled away from the base state by a shorter-duration event such as the MJO declining that the models as a whole (including ensembles) are most prone to producing erroneous outcomes. This may well be a consequence of the fact that the effect on the model direction of observational data outweighs that from the simulated forcing phenomena that the model propagates through itself, because reality is inevitably more certain and reliable than virtual reality.

To put it more simply, the models are biased toward persistence. If they weren't, we'd see some truly wild solutions for beyond about a week's range (what we see as things are may sometimes seem that way, but it could be far worse!).

 

A totally genuine question - are you basing your comment on model bias on something factual? Just because in my experience I've always felt the models are usually quicker rather than slower to look for pattern changes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice ukmo 12z with high pressure / strong ridging throughout across most of england and wales where it will quickly become very warm again with plenty of strong early August sunshine, especially for the s / se where it will become hot and there's some very hot air lurking just to the s / sw on the near continent. A bit more changeable and cooler across the far north as atlantic frontal systems (mostly weak) brush around the top of the high / ridge.

UW48-7.gif

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UW96-7.gif

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UW144-7.gif

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Now it's the turn of GFS to go off on one with another new scenario - trough over the UK from midweek. It's like every possible option is appearing (or has appeared) in the runs. It looks SO different from the 6z, can it really be taken seriously.

UKMO on the other hand is more settled than its 00z run.

There's no telling what ECM will come up with.

Zero consistency at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
28 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Now it's the turn of GFS to go off on one with another new scenario - trough over the UK from midweek. It's like every possible option is appearing (or has appeared) in the runs. It looks SO different from the 6z, can it really be taken seriously.

UKMO on the other hand is more settled than its 00z run.

There's no telling what ECM will come up with.

Zero consistency at the moment.

maybe its a pattern change ... the GFS 12z screams typical August weather ie: poor from 168hrs its like the curse of August returns !

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Much cooler autumnal Gfs 12z low res compared to the 6z with troughs swinging down from the NW across the uk and high pressure well out in the atlantic but there's plenty of very warm / hot weather shown for the next week or so, especially further s / se with temperatures into the high 20's / low 30's celsius.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Much cooler autumnal Gfs 12z low res compared to the 6z with troughs swinging down from the NW across the uk and high pressure well out in the Atlantic.

Yes Karl, A much more organised Polar Vortex taking shape into the run.

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Great fun this model-watching business isn't it? 

This time the GFS has the high moving eastwards, temporarily drawing up hot air for the beginning of next week. This gets ushered away quickly as the high sinks SE allowing a flabby low in from the NW introducing much cooler and fresher air with showers. A secondary low provides more general rain for the following weekend.

Thereafter the Azores high finally ridges in from the SW but it all looks rather tenuous. Fun to see the different scenarios offered by the models at the moment. No real consensus forming at all beyond this weekend - just where will our high go? Will it 'go' that easily, too?

This has a long way to go before we can really know what'll happen. For what it's worth I can see our high moving eastwards but perhaps not as swiftly as the GFS 12z wants to do it. I can also see the Azores high do a better and quicker job of re-ridging in long-term as well as we cycle in a more familiar '3 fine days and a thunderstorm' -style scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Actually the hot air starts getting drawn up on Thursday pauses before being pushed all across the country by Monday. Wouldn't be surprised if a new record came on Monday. However we are venturing off into a timr frame where there could be subtle changes which may effect how far north it gets and also if any break down occurs.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Here's the 12z suite at T144, showing significant uncertainty, there certainty about the UK high at T120.  Here GFS, GEM, UKMO, ICON, ECM and FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.50c9f558e92411182dc35150858fe11c.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.933229204df0b05bd53ebfbfda6e1c88.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4eee4c375c8ebbd383b6d24fc1e202a6.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.108ccb807b618917c3e7b344651ed68e.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.53f7fe0f409ea0051fc2697cc976670f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.72748b2f7c01e19572a3d55492467349.jpg

Only the last really following the script, interesting to see the next couple of runs as to how this evolves, uncertain after the weekend. 

 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Much warmer more settled Ecm 12z longer term compared to the 00z which had an increasingly cool Northerly flow setting in towards the end but not this run which shows high pressure / strong ridging in control across southern uk..there's a return to very warm / hot weather for southern uk just around the corner and plenty of warm / very warm conditions generally.

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

A totally genuine question - are you basing your comment on model bias on something factual? Just because in my experience I've always felt the models are usually quicker rather than slower to look for pattern changes. 

Good question, it’s based on the lectures and book content I attended and studied at university, and relates to the data assimilation process.

There are times, though, when the models propagate a new tropical signal too fast, leading to those ‘jumping then gun’ moments.

 

Interesting ECM 12z - much more in line with recent GFS output out to early next week, then sort of like the GFS 06z except for a lot of unconvincing vagueness - looks like a model in the process of adjusting to corrected forcing patterns...

Edited by Singularity
Mobile keypads :/ ha
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