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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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Going on what I've gleaned from others' posts and charts, a warmer-than-average mixed bag may well be what August provides: anything and everything (from the likes of what we are currently enjoying to 32C+ days with unbroken sunshine to intense thunderstorms) could be possible, I think...What I can't see, however, is much in the way of climatologically cool weather? :D

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38 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No idea what charts you’re looking at but I can’t see any evidence for low pressure returning after midweek.

Really? Low pressure never far away on the GFS or the ECM, GFS runs a low pressure system right across Southern England by the middle of next week.

All conjecture at this stage, of course. But as usual, people in this thread only seeing what they want to see.

My point stands. No sustained heat on the models other than briefly hot this weekend. 

DA718421-05CC-49C1-BC42-96E2ADFBB2CD.gif

9F16DB93-F3E1-4F72-8364-D5B2B9E11812.png

53D96F20-F764-4F89-9C0D-91E3BA9EBFAB.gif

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22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

138-582SP.GIF?30-0

There's a 47c on the map for the Seville area on Saturday. Must be getting very close to the all time Spanish record of 47.3c or even the European record of 48.0c in Athens.

That’s insane heat,our record could go here too if the warm air reaches that far North.Met seem confident of hot to very hot conditions at times over the next few weeks,they have lots of other models too,they use.I don’t think they base their forecasts on just what the GFS and ECM Anomaly charts  are showing in the future😆

Edited by SLEETY

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30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

which is what the poster you quoted said... but no model retains it past tuesday and a westerly upper flow the anomaly charts suggest supports the ops in suggesting we will get some sort of westerly flow, be it slack (as the current ecm) or more vigourous (as per gfs).  there might be further short lived hot spells, but its looking very average apart from the coming mini hot spell fri-mon.

If the anomalies are showing a shorter plume event, then I'll go with that as being the more likely scenario until all NWP output contradicts them.

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11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Really? Low pressure never far away on the GFS or the ECM, GFS runs a low pressure system right across Southern England by the middle of next week.

All conjecture at this stage, of course. But as usual, people in this thread only seeing what they want to see.

My point stands. No sustained heat on the models other than briefly hot this weekend. 

DA718421-05CC-49C1-BC42-96E2ADFBB2CD.gif

9F16DB93-F3E1-4F72-8364-D5B2B9E11812.png

53D96F20-F764-4F89-9C0D-91E3BA9EBFAB.gif

Middle of next week well into FI. See if it gets to T120.

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Best read what the Met say rather than taking the gfs as gospel,it always struggles in these setups

Yet again you’re choosing to ignore what i’ve actually said. Since when were the Met Office infalluable? Here’s what I actually said, for a third time.

1. No sustained heat

2. Periods of transient heat interspersed with periods of cooler (average) weather. 

Meaning - Periods of hot weather are likely to be shortlived but will be a reoccuring theme. 

Huh, kinda sounds like what the Met Office has said, doesn’t?

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Some post have gone as off topic, Just Model output discussion please in here, There are other threads open for chat on BBC and Meto extended/forecast.

Thanks please continue..

Edited by Polar Maritime

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I though they we all forecasting maybe 36-37 but with a probability of only around .2 to .3? And that's without the GFS's (it always under-cooks summer maxes) predictions of around the 34C mark...

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I’m just intrigued if the U.K. record temp can go,certainly enough heat to tap in.The ukmo seem most keen to bring in the hottest air.Hopefully the other models will follow the ukmo later.

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If the anomalies are showing a shorter plume event, then I'll go with that as being the more likely scenario until all NWP output contradicts them.

what the noaa's show for the 6-10 day period mean, is shallow ridging to our south, shallow troughing over the azores, with a mean upper flow from the west across most of the country.

i believe that MIGHT (not 'will') allow for a possible transitory plume, and indeed a strong pressure rise is not expected to last on these charts.

so they support a brief settled/hot spell this weekend.  beyond that the 8-14 day chart suggests a rather benign upper westerly after the weekend, with a rather weak pressure on the +ive side of neutral . id expect that to produce pretty pleasant average conditions, below average rain, possibly slightly above average temps. a lot better then the last 15 years! very much how @Daniel Smith has summed it up.

unfortunately, theres no sign of the 'big one' i was hoping for - a lengthy sustained hot spell like 1995 delivered (eg other hot summers too) .

 

latest.gif

latest longer.gif

Edited by mushymanrob

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as for record breaking heat/breaking records here..

there certainly is the potential , but for that we would have to get a decent southerly for a few days. unfortunately thats unlikely, so the real heat will largely  remain locked up to our south.

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2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

as for record breaking heat/breaking records here..

there certainly is the potential , but for that we would have to get a decent southerly for a few days. unfortunately thats unlikely, so the real heat will largely  remain locked up to our south.

I wouldn't say it's unlikely.. ok the models are not currently showing it, but the teleconnections mentioned in Tamara's and others' threads have strongly suggested that such a scenareo could happen, with the suggested pattern being Sceuro high and Atlantic trough... and they've been pretty much spot on so far.

If that pattern asserts itself, then it's game on for some exceptional temps.

Who knows what could happen 10-12 days from now?

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Whatever happens - it probably needs to be in the next 7-10 days or we will be too late in the year.

I've always felt the window for a UK maximum attempt needs to be in the last 10 days of July or the first 10 days of August. Roughly.

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52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Whatever happens - it probably needs to be in the next 7-10 days or we will be too late in the year.

I've always felt the window for a UK maximum attempt needs to be in the last 10 days of July or the first 10 days of August. Roughly.

Not so sure about that. I'd have agreed with you before 2016, but given that 34.4C was recorded on September 12th 2016, you'd imagine that 3 weeks earlier the same setup might have broken the record. I still think the second half of August has potential for some very high temperatures this year, especially with the warm SSTs and hot continent.

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

what the noaa's show for the 6-10 day period mean, is shallow ridging to our south, shallow troughing over the azores, with a mean upper flow from the west across most of the country.

i believe that MIGHT (not 'will') allow for a possible transitory plume, and indeed a strong pressure rise is not expected to last on these charts.

so they support a brief settled/hot spell this weekend.  beyond that the 8-14 day chart suggests a rather benign upper westerly after the weekend, with a rather weak pressure on the +ive side of neutral . id expect that to produce pretty pleasant average conditions, below average rain, possibly slightly above average temps. a lot better then the last 15 years! very much how @Daniel Smith has summed it up.

unfortunately, theres no sign of the 'big one' i was hoping for - a lengthy sustained hot spell like 1995 delivered (eg other hot summers too) .

 

latest.gif

latest longer.gif

Thankfully the westerlies seem to be a lot warmer than usual this summer. With sunshine many could be still looking at the mid 20s and possibly a bit higher further south. In a normal summer we'd be delighted with what these charts are showing.

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I said last evening I would drop charts in here today, re the anomaly charts. In the post I suggested that any prolonged heat again was unlikely in the 6-14 day time scale. That is how it shows this morning, =using the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 from last evening and the ECMWF-GFS from this morning. Well it does to me

I notice a couple of others commenting on the anomaly charts. These charts are at variance with what UK Met are predicting in the same time scale, that is the 0130 update I am looking at. So it will be interesting to see which is nearer the actual weather.

Anyway below are the relevant charts, with the NOAA 8-14 as the third chart.

My notes to go with the charts from my usual file on them.

(sorry about the odd sizing of the first sentence.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

The time scale is beyond, just, the current prediction for temperatures over southern England again getting to 30+ this weekend.

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

as for record breaking heat/breaking records here..

there certainly is the potential , but for that we would have to get a decent southerly for a few days. unfortunately thats unlikely, so the real heat will largely  remain locked up to our south.

50C looking likely across southern Europe and shame we're not tapping anywhere near it.,  Murphys Law?

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Interesting differences of opinion in here between some of the more knowledgeable folks. They all sound perfectly plausible.

Will the 12z runs go with what the UKMO 00z was showing?

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Quite so😉.

And i would usualy decipher the -spag plots in a winter organise..

However they are playing a good/medium decipher prog.

So i'll be sticking some into the mid-long range atm...

As the overal evo looks ...at least consistant!

The consist to some will be wtf!!.

Its a mass combo-of a little ens..in with ops sets-in with set divulgs etc- upper airs-probable jet align-supports of a particular member/mod...

enspanel2.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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Ukmo drops the crazy plume from the 00z run and comes in with something just very warm instead of oven heat. GFS ramping the heat up into next week.

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This weekend is looking very settled with temperatures getting into the high 20s or low 30s for southern and central parts. The change today has been the slower movement of the high pressure cell which is forecast to be rooted over the UK that little bit longer.

The very warm uppers look like as though they may come up from the south early next week but the high remaining a tad bit west of the UK remains a possibility. It would still remain warm and dry by day but nights may be more comfortable for sleeping as a result.

Certainly can't see any records being toppled at the weekend now... lol

For the first time in a while we seem to have a consensus too with ICON, UKMO and GFS all showing high pressure centered over the UK at the weekend.

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png UKMOPEU12_144_1.png ICOOPEU12_141_1.png

My hunch is that we will get a few days of high pressure before a quick plume, but as I mentioned, don't be surprised if the high ends up further west then modelled either.

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3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I said last evening I would drop charts in here today, re the anomaly charts. In the post I suggested that any prolonged heat again was unlikely in the 6-14 day time scale. That is how it shows this morning, =using the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 from last evening and the ECMWF-GFS from this morning. Well it does to me

I notice a couple of others commenting on the anomaly charts. These charts are at variance with what UK Met are predicting in the same time scale, that is the 0130 update I am looking at. So it will be interesting to see which is nearer the actual weather.

Anyway below are the relevant charts, with the NOAA 8-14 as the third chart.

My notes to go with the charts from my usual file on them.

(sorry about the odd sizing of the first sentence.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

The time scale is beyond, just, the current prediction for temperatures over southern England again getting to 30+ this weekend.

erm... what notes? 🤔

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