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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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7 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The 18z has illustrated my above post quite well. Even 30c looking difficult to achieve until next Saturday at the earliest

Obviously am being facetious here and not taking this range literally, but how do you like 36c in East Anglia? 

FF47BD33-9EBC-49EA-8FDF-F40F8D4C6889.png

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The gfs 18z throwing up what is increasing showing in the ens...

The trough dangling further out west(atlantic) aiding heat fusion into the uk...morso east/south east quadrant.

30c+ easily acheivable-through the weekend...and an increase in that balance further on.

The jet profile highlighting the split/cut off points where the heat intensity is more highly-favoured.

I can see the AT -TROUGH becoming a weaker feature with progression...

 

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-5-228.png

Edited by tight isobar

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sweltering hot weather pushing up in a weeks time or so according to gfs then probably severe storms as low pressure move in.Temps upto mid 30c.amazing,if it verifies

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384 hours out I know, but the record would be on its way out! Incredible stuff.

perhaps the answer would be to sharpen up the trough to the South of the jet, in order to beef the heights up further east. Looking very 2003 style with the huge robust sceuro high in place. 

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Lets not once more erupt into a repeated mass of over-excitement about D10 and beyond on the 18z.  When its showing this kind of heat in the three day range get back to me.      

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UKMO

UW120-21.GIF?20-06   UW144-21.GIF?20-06

UW120-7.GIF?20-06   UW144-7.GIF?20-06

So the Atlantic air probably reaches the far north and west of the Midlands before the front dies a death, Thursday begins to see pressure rise from the south and as will the temperatures more widely. 

GFS

gfs-0-120.png   gfs-0-144.png

gfs-1-120.png   gfs-1-144.png

Same idea from the GFS, the front on Wednesday looks a little further north west by around 50 miles but that is it. Thursday sees a simlar pressure rise compared to the UKMO.

So perhaps slowly we are starting to get a decent picture regarding how next week will unfold, the south east looks very warm to hot throughout, a front will try to cross the country but will fizzle over the northern part of the country before pressure rises during the second half of next week where there could be a possibility of a plume event.

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GEM in the latter stages looks chilly this morning:


gem-0-192.png?00gem-1-192.png?00

gem-0-210.png?00gem-1-210.png?00

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Not a bad finish to the Gem 00z..the next day would be even hotter!🔥🔥🌞:shok:

231_mslp850.png

231_uk2mtmp.png

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ECM also looking plume-tastic!

Looks like we’re finally getting some clarity on next week. Monday and Tuesday look hot, heat perhaps retreating to the se corner for Wednesday before expanding back north again at the end of the week. 850s touching 16c in the far east of the anglia region and Kent by Friday and Saturday.

Either way, it’s an absolute scorcher of a week in an amazing summer.

 

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8 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

This thread has become the south east of England heatwave thread.I personally do not wish for temperatures above 21c and the model output of recent days continued to show lower pressure and less settled conditions north of the Scottish Borders.Up here, the breakdown happened a few days ago and with not much 'heat' or wall to wall' sunshine being forecast for us up here in the foreseeable, it would be respectful to remember that the UK is not restricted geographically to london and the south east. 🙂

This old chestnut again. I think you’ll find there’s been plenty of discussion about what the weather will be like based on the model output for the whole of the UK. Naturally, as the most intense heat is forecast over the SE that will inevitably be discussed. 

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Good grief what a set of 00z runs today!!hot all the way through!!ecm looks much better aswell and the heat never leaves england before even more hot air spreads further north and west later next week!!gfs similar!!

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what does 16 hpa over parts of SE equate to surface temps ,on that ECM run,most of the country turning hot by the end of next week,with exceptional warm air moving North

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Something tells me there's another Heatwave on the way..stunning Ecm 00z, the s / e especially are set to sizzle next week..plenty of scorching sunshine but increasing humidity and a growing risk of thunderstorms.☺ 🔥🔥🔥🔥🌩️🌞🌡️this run followed by the Gem 00z ending would be perfick!😎

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perfick.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

what does 16 hpa over parts of SE equate to surface temps ,on that ECM run,most of the country turning hot by the end of next week,with exceptional warm air moving North

I’d say by the weekend somewhere  in the E/SE would probably reach 35c going on the ECM run verifying. Slack airflow in place for 3 days will just stop it being mixed out and it’ll get hotter. 

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15 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

As for records not being broken.

Try over 90F in the arctic circle-

20C ABOVE NORM.

 

That is quite terrifying. I hope it gets nipped in the bud soon and cooler temperatures and rainfall arrive, Sweden and Norway are struggling with wildfires at the moment. 

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9 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

This thread has become the south east of England heatwave thread.I personally do not wish for temperatures above 21c and the model output of recent days continued to show lower pressure and less settled conditions north of the Scottish Borders.Up here, the breakdown happened a few days ago and with not much 'heat' or wall to wall' sunshine being forecast for us up here in the foreseeable, it would be respectful to remember that the UK is not restricted geographically to london and the south east. 🙂

I'd recommend not being such a snowflake (pun intended) and realise that the focus will be on the SE when the models are showing potentially record breaking temperatures.  If the extreme heat was showing for Scotland the focus would be there. Just like in winter when there's a snowstorm on the way for the north, they'll get mentioned more. Quite a lot of people do try and give a varied view to include other parts of the country

Edited by c00ps

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1 minute ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Looks like the real extreme heat is being pushed back again, and gradually the LP is getting closer to the UK. 

It's only the hottest spell of the summer on the way for the s/e next week..temps potentially between 31-34c..locally higher. There's going to be a battleground somewhere across the NW of the uk with cooler atlantic air behind it but it looks like the heat will win and expand further n/w later next week but for most of southern uk but especially further s / se it looks an absolute scorcher.

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7 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Looks like the real extreme heat is being pushed back again, and gradually the LP is getting closer to the UK. 

Keep believing your own propaganda- feel free to continue looking at your imaginary set of charts while the rest of us carry on looking at the real ones.

This is a scorching chart from the ECM for most of the UK and is only at 168 hrs:

ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

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18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Keep believing your own propaganda- feel free to continue looking at your imaginary set of charts while the rest of us carry on looking at the real ones.

This is a scorching chart from the ECM for most of the UK and is only at 168 hrs:

ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

Only 7 days away?, well into FI is 168 hours! 

Latest METEO daytime temps (FROM THEIR WEBSITE) for London next week up until Thurs are

Mon 29c

Tues 28c

Weds 27c

Thurs 29c

Not anything notable there. It is more notable how long the nice weather has been going on rather than for how hot the temperatures have been, and it looks like continuing like that for the foreseeable. And there is no getting away from the LP being modelled closer and closer to the UK in the reliable time frame.

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls

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Just now, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Only 7 days away?, well into FI is 168 hours! 

Latest METEO daytime temps for London next week up until Thurs are

Mon 29c

Tues 28c

Weds 27c

Thurs 29c

Not anything notable there. It is more notable how long the nice weather has been going on rather than for how hot the temperatures have been, and it looks like continuing like that for the foreseeable. And there is no getting away from the LP being modelled closer and closer to the UK in the reliable time frame.

Completely agree, while the forecast medium term is amazing, the real scorching stuff never gets closer than 6-8days, remember GFS and ECM were flagging mid 30's at times for this coming weekend only 4-5 days ago. If it could stay 28-30C for the rest of summer I'd be the happiest person in the world however I have a feeling (although no evidence) at short notice the trough sharpen and bring an abrupt end to hot weather later next week. 

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Those temps aren't correct though, no idea where you have plucked them from - forecasts have been showing 31-32c early next week.

There isn't a chance in hell it will only reach 28c next Tuesday with 850s of between 12-14c.

GFS shows 30c for both days, these are usually undercooked by a degree or two.

90-582UK.GIF?20-0114-582UK.GIF?20-0

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9 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Only 7 days away?, well into FI is 168 hours! 

Latest METEO daytime temps for London next week up until Thurs are

Mon 29c

Tues 28c

Weds 27c

Thurs 29c

Not anything notable there. It is more notable how long the nice weather has been going on rather than for how hot the temperatures have been, and it looks like continuing like that for the foreseeable. And there is no getting away from the LP being modelled closer and closer to the UK in the reliable time frame.

Those temps have every chance of being correct but I'm not the only person on here to notice that the Met Office have a tendency to underestimate temperatures. Wouldn't pay too much attention to them tbh.

Edited by cheese

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10 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Only 7 days away?, well into FI is 168 hours! 

Latest METEO daytime temps (FROM THEIR WEBSITE) for London next week up until Thurs are

Mon 29c

Tues 28c

Weds 27c

Thurs 29c

Not anything notable there. It is more notable how long the nice weather has been going on rather than for how hot the temperatures have been, and it looks like continuing like that for the foreseeable. And there is no getting away from the LP being modelled closer and closer to the UK in the reliable time frame.

Keep up the wishful thinking, those temps will be revised upwards as we get closer to the time. Can you post some chart comparisons to back up this theory about LP being modelled closer and closer to the UK?

I'm sure if LP was being shown over the UK at 168 hrs you would believe it was nailed on! It's in FI but not by much.

Edited by Scorcher

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The Net-Wx MR Model shows 28/29c for parts of the S/E Mon-Tue, Obviously there will always be local variations with some spots possibly touching 33c but we can only wait and see. Let's not forget the N/W,  As temps there will be much cooler in the region of 12/13/14c.... Temps around 30c mark are certainly notable for the UK. 

00.thumb.png.9cbd847f18ef1d35428fad8bb3d8ea97.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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