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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    I tried..but failed ...anyway it looks like more great weather is on the way following the cooler unsettled blip..really nice Ecm / Gefs 12z means this evening.

    ? Yes, Karl, really good ensemble sets tonight, never in doubt was it?  This weekend's rain will be welcomed here in the south, though.  After that, business as usual ?.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Fit to teleconnections out of 10:

    ECM 6/10; halfway toward the digging Atlantic trough (just a bit too far east and north on this run) and would have had the ridge back into Scandi by day 7 had that unusual low not been held in place right in the way.

    UKMO 8/10; better effort at the digging Atlantic trough and little sign of any stalled low to get in the way of further ridge extension into Scandinavia beyond day 6.

    GFS 3/10; doesn’t dig the Atlantic trough down much at all and passes on several opportunities to build ridging back into Scandinavia.

    GEM 7/10; closest to teleconnection signals with the Atlantic trough position in the 8-10 day range - just a bit too far northeast but the model is known to have a progressive bias with Atlantic origin lows. Scandi ridge extension partially achieved, a bit too much of a full displacement from the UK trying to unfold though.

    Interesting, how do you rate the 12z GEFS and ECM ensemble means on that same scale, out of interest, if you don't mind my asking, please?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester

    Much much better GFS this morning and the 0z has a fleeting fly by from the Spanish plume. Pretty much high pressure dominated after early this week. 

    Game on ??

    MNR

    296FAD8F-5187-4BFB-B547-FC338FACA94B.jpeg

    If UKMO went on to 168 I don’t think that would be far off a plume event. Overall a pretty good morning of early runs. 

    F5DF39EE-D3A8-438C-88E0-D574B58ECEDB.jpeg

    Edited by mother nature rocks
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    * Edit Day 6 sees the +15c line pushing into Cornwall = 30c

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Seems the models are creeping back to potential plume type scenarios again.

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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester

    After a few dodgy runs from ECM the 0z is pretty peachy. Just need a jog north-west to keep more of the country happy. 

    What a great start to the weekend. 

    Now going to enjoy this ‘blip’ of fresher weather before the heat gets turned back on after midweek ☀️☀️

    MNR

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Ecm bringing the 20c line into play at 240 - looks monumentally hot and unstable though with low pressure involved. All options look to be on the table, after we get through midweek who knows what could happen. Just a shame the end of July is cooler as it will knock the CET back.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Fit to teleconnections out of 10 for today's 00z runs:

    ECM 6/10; while the local positioning of the ridge brings about higher temperatures on this run, there's still more digging of a trough down in the mid-N. Atlantic needed, and the model continues to lower pressure to our near-NE at a time when it ought to be heading the other way. The two are linked; the trough into Scandinavia gets there because of how flat the N. Atlantic jet pattern is.
    EPS Mean 6/10: The trough-ridge pattern is hinted at, but not very well defined, particularly days 9-10, and the ridge doesn't reach into Scandinavia much.

    UKMO 6/10; a slump toward ECM from this model as it loses the mid-Atlantic trough on day 6 and moves part of the remnants over to Scandinavia. This score may be a little harsh though; the run could recover on days 7-8 as a trough moves S of Greenland and that could feasibly dig south toward the Azores.

    GFS 9/10; a dramatic rise to the top spot, as the Atlantic trough digs down well, and days 8-10 see the downstream ridge in a position that matches the teleconnection signal very well.
    GEFS Mean 6/10; some suggestion of the mid-Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge pattern days 6-9, but it could do with being better defined, and there's then more of an Atlantic ridge on day 10 so something's clearly amiss there!

    GEM 7/10; although it arrives at a major plume situation with a high becoming slow-moving with its axis to the E and NE, the main Atlantic trough is very weak and loses shape by day 9.


    This will be the last set of ratings; this is actually a fun little experiment - will check back in a week's time to see how close my best-rated model runs fit to the actual outcome.

    Funny how it's just the GFS run that really stands out this morning, having been the poorest of the 12z set yesterday. Somehow the run keeps resolving the signals better every now and then, only to drop the ball again within a run or two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Good run from the GFS parallel this morning. Here at T210 has the plume scenario back for next Sunday:

    image.thumb.jpg.9de4900f549f80d5724d8bce28023a28.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.547eb6327ebc322a0ad03814b2a814d2.jpg

    This time favouring the SW for the highest uppers, I think this is reasonable given where the heat to the south tends to be setting up on several runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Good run from the GFS parallel this morning. Here at T210 has the plume scenario back for next Sunday:

    image.thumb.jpg.9de4900f549f80d5724d8bce28023a28.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.547eb6327ebc322a0ad03814b2a814d2.jpg

    This time favouring the SW for the highest uppers, I think this is reasonable given where the heat to the south tends to be setting up on several runs.

    There is just so much hot air to our south. Quite incredible really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Really interesting to note that the Ecm 00z builds on what it showed at day 10 on the 12z last night with a plume of extremely hot humid air spreading north into southern areas..great continuity..hope it continues!☺??????

    240_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Really interesting to note that the Ecm 00z builds on what it showed at day 10 on the 12z last night with a plume of extremely hot humid air spreading north into southern areas..great continuity..hope it continues!☺???

    240_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    That does look a tad on the warm side, Frosty...I wonder, given the amount of inertia in the heat-dome, how many more encroaching depressions will be simply 'pinged' into the North Atlantic, before a real pattern-change occurs?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    56 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Really interesting to note that the Ecm 00z builds on what it showed at day 10 on the 12z last night with a plume of extremely hot humid air spreading north into southern areas..great continuity..hope it continues!☺??????

    240_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    Flippin ’eck, look at those uppers over the SE! Incredible heat potential there!!

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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester

    GFS 6z looks very high pressure dominated till the end of low res. Plume doesn’t make it on this run but still very warm nonetheless with uppers averaging out @12/14. So not to shabby.

    Again, it’s only one run so no need to despair!!! 

    The ??? is coming home

    MNR

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I have HIGH hopes for the extended outlook... so it seems does the Ecm 00z ensemble mean!?

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    EDM0-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    UW120-21.GIF?28-18   UW144-21.GIF?28-18

    @Singularity will be pleased by the UKMO efforts with high pressure building through the UK with a trough in the Atlantic with the heat already pushing into southern England by Friday. Certainly back to around 30C or so in the south and it is warm to very warm for near enough everyone with a very slack easterly breeze.

    GFS

    gfs-0-144.png?12

    A decent effort as well with the Azores high building north east, not quite as warm as the UKMO at this point but not too bad and certaily scope to develop things further with the trough moving east to hopefully displace the ridge eastwards.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKMO looking toasty by Friday again...850s over 12c and light winds. We’re going back over 30c by the looks of things.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

    Back on here for the first time since March, after hibernating due to the demands of study and work. What a great summer it has been sun and heat wise, although I was beginning to feel the heat and humidity during the past few days, so the current rain and cooler weather is a welcoming relief.

    After this “cooler” spell of weather there is universal agreement amongst the UKMO and North American models of a gradual build up of high pressure and dry weather, and also a build up of a Spanish plume. The real question is, will this very hot pool eventually reach the shores of the UK in what is traditionally the hottest month of the year?

    6C638EFA-9706-4491-A919-4013ABB8B07A.gif

    65F4FB95-1EE2-4931-A724-4D00953A7A13.gif

    124A28DB-6892-4DCA-938E-84D8D0119096.png

    E1F08FDB-7694-4A4A-A16E-79C7E4099010.png

    6F050363-3094-45F0-AF02-AC225ECC0EED.png

    A9D6C4FD-3092-446A-B98D-8E2C0D472D30.png

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