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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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42 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I sincerely hope this is wrong as today is hot enough!

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I hope it’s a cold outlier 😉

Weekend will be a shock to the system. The coolest conditions for quite some time but there is still plenty of support for a return to very warm/ hot conditions from around mid next week. 

I don’t think rain amounts during the cooler blip will be huge either, aside from places that catch the thundery downpours on Friday. South eastern areas in particular may not see much rain at all.

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GFS ensembles are pretty tightly grouped right through the run. Given what appears to be a solid consensus it will be interesting to see how much run-run variance there will be.   

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41 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS at days 8-10 is pretty spectacular. 1025mb pressure, relatively low humidity and a 15C isotherm in the south/south west. 

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Don't you mean 20C?


Edit - ah, you said days 8-10. The 20C comes later.

Edited by Rob K

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28 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS ensembles are pretty tightly grouped right through the run. Given what appears to be a solid consensus it will be interesting to see how much run-run variance there will be.   

The op run was among the slower members to build in the heat. Some eg P4 build it in quickly and then maintain it for over a week of 32C+ maxima.

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Afternoon all :)

I don't see this concensus for heat at the end of next week and the beginning of the following week that some can see from the 06Z GEFS.

First, it's low-res and FI when we're talking T+276 charts or beyond. That's not to say they can't or won't verify but nothing can be taken for granted at this stage.

Looking through the members, yes, there are a number which bring the 20c 850HPA up to and across southern parts but there are a good number which don't.

Yes, the heat builds to the south and through Iberia, no question, but it's far from clear to this observer that the hot air will reach our shores at this time. Yes, it might still be fine but more in the realms of very warm than very hot.

As ever, more runs are needed.

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it won't be long into next week before things improve, markedly so after next midweek with high pressure and increasing warmth / heat returning from the south, southern uk becomes hot once again..and then stays hot well into August!☺

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GFS 12z seems to have upper level trough in a better position compared to the 6z. 

Weather looks ok for Saturday anywhere south of north Wales(approx).

Looking forward to a couple of ‘fresher’ days before the thermostat gets cranked up at the end of next week!!! 

MNR

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The ukmo 12z shows better signs of improvement by T+144 hours which would continue to increase during the second half of next week as the azores ridge builds in and it gradually warms up again, at least further south.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Day 6

UKMO/GFS/GEM

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The UKMO only looks like going one way for the end of the week with high pressure building north east across the UK. The GEM looks a little messy and ends up with the high generally south west of the UK. The GFS is flatter and slower with the push of the heat but it does get there by the end of the week with high pressure slap bang over the UK, the 20C isotherm is covering most of the meditaranean which is a real sight to see. That is one monster pool of heat.

gfs-1-192.png?12

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Think I just heard thunder here in Poole! Must be the storm in the channel but seems a long way off.


Opps sorry wrong thread 😳

Edited by R Alto
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so we could be looking at 15celsius in parts of Wales this Saturday.. and possibly peaking around 35? next Saturday ~ What a contrast! 
It took me a month to get used to the heat! 

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9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 6

UKMO/GFS/GEM

UW144-21.GIF?26-18   gfs-0-144.png?12   gem-0-144.png?12

The UKMO only looks like going one way for the end of the week with high pressure building north east across the UK. The GEM looks a little messy and ends up with the high generally south west of the UK. The GFS is flatter and slower with the push of the heat but it does get there by the end of the week with high pressure slap bang over the UK, the 20C isotherm is covering most of the meditaranean which is a real sight to see. That is one monster pool of heat.

gfs-1-192.png?12

That is a monster load of heat. Any push from that from any direction south of east- west and we would be burning up big time!! 🔥🔥

MNR

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19 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

That is a monster load of heat. Any push from that from any direction south of east- west and we would be burning up big time!!

MNR

Yes, that is what has struck me about the reload towards the end of next week, the margin of error with such a huge breadth of hot air to the south.  And it hits at T240 on this run:

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My bet is it's unlikely to break the all time record tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule it out somewhere between 4and 8 August.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that is what has struck me about the reload towards the end of next week, the margin of error with such a huge breadth of hot air to the south.  And it hits at T240 on this run:

image.thumb.jpg.b5238567e1ce7ee868d369ae361afa25.jpg

My bet is it's unlikely to break the all time record tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule it out somewhere between 4and 8 August.

My bet is 40C.its happening folks. Everything has fallen into place perfectly for this very reasom

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Very dry ground (aside from some rain the next few days), unusually warm SST’s and a large heat pool across Europe. If we can tap into that heat being shown on the models, records will surely go. Will be a chance missed if we don’t!

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There's a lot to like about the Gfs 12z operational..it shows a marked improvement during the second half of next week as high pressure builds in and temperatures start to soar again, especially across southern uk, beyond that, more hot, humid plumey weather mixed with strong ridging so plenty of hot, dry and sunny weather but a risk of thunderstorms at times too..similar to tomorrow actually.

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Edited by Frosty.
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21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Very dry ground (aside from some rain the next few days), unusually warm SST’s and a large heat pool across Europe. If we can tap into that heat being shown on the models, records will surely go. Will be a chance missed if we don’t!

Couldn’t care less about breaking records. Let’s just keep settled conditions as often and for as long as possible. Anywhere from low twenties is comfortable enough. I think record breaking temperatures would just be uncomfortable.

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The GEFS 12z mean turns into a cracking run with high pressure / strong azores ridging and becoming hot again across most of england and wales, warm / very warm further n / w...so this upcoming cooler / fresher more changeable / unsettled atlantic incursion soon runs out of steam next week and the very summery conditions return.

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As expected we have a breakdown but gfs has been playing catch up against the ecm gem and ukmo.

Heat will build again but this time perhaps not as dry.

No biggy tho been excellent I'm in Devon right now and plenty of lush green but back in my home town Portsmouth it's parched big-time.

Hoping for some spectacular storms.

Well done to the posters who have contributed to an amazing long period of model posting.

 

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Thank god the ECM 12z is not a hot run . It keeps the the real heat away right from T48 all the way to T240 . Still warm but nothing like this weeks heat . Good job as well 🙂

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I don’t know if I’m losing the plot with all this heat and sweating, but is it me or does the ECM seem to really slow things down tonight?? I can see uppers of 12 maybe a touch more but the ‘plume’ seems to be staying in situ. 

I know it’s one run so hopefully after Tamara’s excellent post earlier the only sleep I’ll be losing tonight will be due to the muggy conditions.

As frosty says something is definitely afoot 🔥🔥🔥

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ECM builds high pressure too far west to advect the warmest uppers towards the UK. Would still be warm/very warm.

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