Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Singularity]

Hmm, ECM still around 5 mb deeper with the weekend lows - I think this may actually be a case of model bias, as I've seen it behave like this during past occasions when a steep thermal gradient is taking place.

Longer-term, still issues resolving the build of high pressure into Scandinavia from the southwest with strange areas of slack low pressure interfering. This may be due to the lack of clear guidance from Atlantic troughs as they become so weak and sluggish.

In the end, ECM resorts to building the ridge north of the strange slack lows on day 10. It's concentrated one hell of a hot air mass to the south of us by then, ready to start creeping in, but the way the heat moves more SW than W is quite peculiar so I'm inclined to simply dish out the age-old saying "more runs needed!". At this rate I'll be rating GFS above ECM before July is out .

 

Anyway, sooner or later we're going to have a lot of extremely interesting charts firing at us each day as the models move the heat dome around in various ways but with an overall tendency to bring it across to the UK at some point within the first week of August. It will, I expect, be much like the run-up to the 'beasterly' of late Feb and the start of March this year. Except some 35*C hotter at the 850 hPa level (and perhaps more so at the surface!) .

[Frosty.]

It takes a bit longer to recover from the weekend low but the Ecm 12z gradually improves during next week with pressure / temperatures rising from the south. I think the improvement will be quicker but at least it's heading in the right direction.☺

[Dan the Man]

Ok, theoretical scenario here and a pretty loose question - what is the absolute maximum for the UK. I.e with a realistic synoptic, could somewhere in the UK in theory get over 40c and beyond? Or is that totally out of the question.

[mb018538]

22 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

Ok, theoretical scenario here and a pretty loose question - what is the absolute maximum for the UK. I.e with a realistic synoptic, could somewhere in the UK in theory get over 40c and beyond? Or is that totally out of the question.

Absolutely not I’d say - 40c is definitely achievable. There has to be an upper limit somewhere though, I’ve said before that I believe this to be in the 40-41c range. You’d have to say that even since 2003, the planet has warmed up in those 15 years. 

[Mike Poole]

Strong signal from the ECM ensemble mean for the ridge strengthening, amazing charts still coming, summer 2018 keeps delivering 

[MattStoke]

The Aperge with 36’C in London tomorrow.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is also heading in the right direction with strengthening ridging and gradually rising temperatures from the south, and just look at that heat across spain / france heading north!..

Edited July 25, 2018 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

..... and the noaa 500mb chart continues to bring the promise of proper heat into august.  these charts have tracked the atlantic trough slowly southwestward , with the euro ridge also shifting slightly westward. that ridge on todays chart sits just east of the greenwich meridian , in a rather slack southwesterly upper flow. imho these are the best charts for sustained heat , with them inching towards the atlantic trough becoming 'cut off'.

compare the chart from 9 days ago, its got it bang on for what we are getting now and over the next couple of days, and todays, consistent evolution, this is exciting for those of us that enjoy seeing heat 
 

[Mike Poole]

Couple of other runs from the 12z suite, GFS parallel and FIM, here at T240;

The FIM one is particularly interesting with a wall of heat almost a thousand miles wide inching up from the south.

[shaky]

Ecm is pretty good tonight!!hardly any rain at the weekend apart from friday this week and temps low to kid twenties!!oh and then hotting up next week!!

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z getting the heat into the southeast a little more than the ECM earlier, T42:

July record or not will likely go down to the wire now!

[Captain Shortwave]

Right a few posts have been hidden, whilst the heat can be a controversial subject, perhaps it is best to express this in the relevant threads rather than cluttering up a thread which is supposed to be about model discussion.

Thankyou

Edited July 25, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z getting the heat into the southeast a little more than the ECM earlier, T42:

July record or not will likely go down to the wire now!

Is that further west than the 12z was showing or about the same

[blizzard81]

The ecm run was disappointing. Our old winter foe - the Icelandic low is being a right pain in the backside! In addition to this, pressure looks more slack at the end of the run compared to the previous few runs. This would lead to summer longevity issues. Can you tell my hols start soon? 

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is that further west than the 12z was showing or about the same

I wouldn't bother trying to split hairs on this one. The Atlantic is breaking through this weekend. Our real interest now is to get that azores ridge up as soon as possible into the middle of next week without further delay. The ecm op tonight seems interested in that word - delay! 

[matty007]

1 hour ago, Dan the Man said:

Ok, theoretical scenario here and a pretty loose question - what is the absolute maximum for the UK. I.e with a realistic synoptic, could somewhere in the UK in theory get over 40c and beyond? Or is that totally out of the question.

40c is certainly achievable. Areas such as Germany have managed it, and they are on a equal position to us in the hemisphere, so it’s definitely possible. 

I think the difficulty in achieving it here is due to the wind direction and speed as well as just often falling short with uppers. With a 20 upper and a light southerly wind, it would certainly be breached. Will it be this year? Doubtful, but an outside chance. It’s looking a little cloudy for my liking and just short on uppers to achieve it. You have to say though, that with the very dry ground and continental heat, it’s our best chance since of 2003 of it happening. The plume has come at the perfect time too where the sun is at its absolute hottest. I do believe that the July record (36.7c) will be broken however, and was first looking like Friday would be the day, but tomorrow is now looking the day. 

Current July record of 36.7c is almost guaranteed to be beat, and possibly even the 2003 record of 38.5c given the perfect conditions. But will probably just fall shy of 40c

38c-39c would be my guess 

Maximum for UK? Difficult to know, but 41-42c would be my guess. You would need virtually no wind, and southerly. A cloudless day that has had a lot of dry days before it (like now) and also 20-25c uppers. 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by matty007

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm run was disappointing. Our old winter foe - the Icelandic low is being a right pain in the backside! In addition to this, pressure looks more slack at the end of the run compared to the previous few runs. This would lead to summer longevity issues. Can you tell my hols start soon? 

The mean was more supportive of a stronger anticyclonic outlook. Perhaps a rogue operational run. We'll see what the 00z has in store for us tomorrow morning. Whilst I know not to take one run as gospel I do take the ECM more seriously than the GFS so I do hope it 'corrects'  

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm run was disappointing.

There's nothing disappointing about these charts, the bar has been set very high this summer, in a normal summer most would be very happy with the ecm trend..disappointing it aint!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Liima said:

The mean was more supportive of a stronger anticyclonic outlook. Perhaps a rogue operational run. We'll see what the 00z has in store for us tomorrow morning. Whilst I know not to take one run as gospel I do take the ECM more seriously than the GFS so I do hope it 'corrects'  

I hope so too but even the mean didn't look as bullish as the previous few runs. 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's nothing disappointing about these charts, the bar has been set very high this summer, in a normal summer most would be very happy with the ecm trend..disappointing it aint!

I should have made clear that the disappointing aspect was in relation to it's previous few runs. All relative of course - like everything else in life.

[ICE COLD]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm run was disappointing. Our old winter foe - the Icelandic low is being a right pain in the backside! In addition to this, pressure looks more slack at the end of the run compared to the previous few runs. This would lead to summer longevity issues. Can you tell my hols start soon? 

Yep noticed it to on the ECM op as well , pressure falling quite a lot over Europe and the Atlantic . Had to happen at some point . 

[MattStoke]

GFS puts the highest uppers on Friday further west again. It has modelled that so poorly.

[Scorcher]

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep noticed it to on the ECM op as well , pressure falling quite a lot over Europe and the Atlantic . Had to happen at some point . 

Nice try...you'd think the hot spell had been cancelled from this post...not so! The ECM is still very good if it's hot weather you're after- just not quite as spectacular as we might have hoped.

This could all change in the morning again.

[shaky]

What a horrible horrible gfs for sunday wet right across england!!that low seems to have come right over the uk now!!not good!

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

What a horrible horrible gfs for sunday wet right across england!!that low seems to have come right over the uk now!!not good!

I'll quite happily take the free water for my garden on Sunday! A slight southwards correction in the main rain band as it sweeps eastwards. It still looks like decaying later on Sunday. If I were in the east I'd be taking note of the GFS progressive tendencies and wondering how much (if any) significant rainfall would make it to me.

It looks wet for many western and central areas though - for once a positive! I'll be looking now for any delay in the heat forecast later next week - GFS has recently been bringing it forwards whilst ECM delayed.

Edited July 25, 2018 by Liima