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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Is that the latest 06z run or still 00z?

Latest 6z  showers developing Thursady afternoon.  Then starting again Friday Early hours  through the spine of the country migrating east 

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A lot of responses/feedback about the diagnostic approach encompassing varying aspects of NWP analysis. Some misunderstandings and incorrect interpretations of the purpose of this approach continue to

Yes, it showcases one interpretation of a pattern that is finally evolving (well at least from my own non-NWP perspective) as expected for a time that feels longer than this wonderful summer so far it

So, the much anticipated eventual pattern evolution that started occupying thoughts at the start of this month to Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge aligning exceptional heat are now fully in focu

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The weekend is ugly on GFS 06Z no doubt about it, some places in in the Midlands struggling to get much past 17C along blustery showers (will be a huge and unwelcome weekend shock), warmer 20-23C towards the extreme south east. 

However into next week GFS looks like redeeming itself and its lining up a beast of heatwave. 

Edited by Alderc
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Jesus apart from the couple of days at the weekend this gfs is hot all the way into fi!!what a build up of heat into next week on this run!!im not really convinced about the rainfall this weekend so in my opinion whoever gets the storms friday make the most of it!!from my perspective i cant wait to have a couple of cooler days this weekend as i  have not slept well for the last 2 months thanks to the heat lol!

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After the weekends(still not fully deciphered antics)....

The theme remains...the heat burner getting fully switched back on!!.

Some real heat encrouching...

And it has clear and stable eyes at inroads uk destination.

With the jet compliance for this evolution also...

If ya can't stand the heat...get out of the uk kitchen...into august!!!!

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Edited by tight isobar
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GFS is really going nuts into the first weekend of August, I can't imagine its going to be anything other than top of the ensemble pile (or at least top three) Still would be another run of at least 5 30C+ plus days. The thing I prefer about this run is the full development of high pressure close and to our south east. Very August 03.

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I guess the GFS 6z is one of a few possible scenarios   whats clear is  next week the odds on favourite is for it to be hot.  how hot is open to debate.  The gfs  brings days on end of 30c plus  after the minor blip early next week   

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It does at least appear that the more westerly weekend outcome should permit a better Monday for most as the front clears all but the SE corner by midday and temps are able to recover toward the mid-20s (allowing for typical GFS underestimation).

We do have unusually warm SSTs around much of the UK helping to propel the temps up whenever it’s not raining. In fact this leads me to be sceptical of any sub-20 maximums away from the far west this weekend; the rain looks showery and nearshore SSTs aren’t far off 20 - and in some places they’re above that mark.

The biggest impact will be on the night temps though; a brisk flow off those SSTs will lead to mid-high teens minimums even when the relatively fresh return-polar-maritime airmass is passing through. The cooler days should still help with sleeping for those who’ve been struggling lately, though, as it’s the daytime indoor buildup that’s most important.

 

p.s I know it all looks a lot more interesting again by Wed/Thi but others are covering this well. GFs 06z may seem extreme but the broad pattern fits the tropical forcing better than what the 00z ECM produced - so IMO it’s more realistic!

Edited by Singularity
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I could have posted more charts, the Gfs 6z operational is that good..our largely fine hot summer will roll on well into august according to this!☺?????

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A cautionary note about max temps, today is an example where it looks like the media, models and forums have slightly over-ramped suggesting 32/33C is possible, this is looking increasingly unlikely. GFS has widespread 12Z temps in and London and East Anglia at 29-31C in reality apart from Hersty & Lydd on 29C most places 'only' 25-27C so about 3-4C down on model output from the 06Z run. 

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6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I see the Metoffice have upped the ante with this tweet now going for 37c on Friday , 

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1022069509195227136/video/1

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Given what I've just posted with maxes currently 3-4C down on GFS output, its hard to see them flipping to 3-4C above GFS output in two days, especially with the storm / cloud risk for Friday. 

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A cautionary note about max temps, today is an example where it looks like the media, models and forums have slightly over-ramped suggesting 32/33C is possible, this is looking increasingly unlikely. GFS has widespread 12Z temps in and London and East Anglia at 29-31C in reality apart from Hersty & Lydd on 29C most places 'only' 25-27C so about 3-4C down on model output from the 06Z run. 

Yep, temps currently between 27-29c in the SE & EA. 33c may be a stretch today. 

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Diagramme GEFS

 

For central England   no end in sight    The Opp  close to the mean.  With a few rogue outliers  turning us into  Sand      Overall  Hot Hot Hot.

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8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Given what I've just posted with maxes currently 3-4C down on GFS output, its hard to see them flipping to 3-4C above GFS output in two days, especially with the storm / cloud risk for Friday. 

Maxes being down today is no reason at all why they should be down again Friday - the upper air is going to be a lot warmer then. We reached 29C here on Monday despite it being cloudy nearly all day.

Edited by cheese
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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Given what I've just posted with maxes currently 3-4C down on GFS output, its hard to see them flipping to 3-4C above GFS output in two days, especially with the storm / cloud risk for Friday. 

It’s very Interesting to see what transpires, in my experience the gfs always seems to underestimate temp maxes but you make a good point in your posts , let’s see what happens , going by the Met they have gone for a max of 31c today and no higher then jumping to 35c tomorrow and 37c Friday , either way it will be hot and hopefully go bang and give some water to the Gardens , not that it will do much to the already parched land .

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7 minutes ago, cheese said:

Maxes being down today is no reason at all why they should be down again Friday - the upper air is going to be a lot warmer then. We reached 29C here on Monday despite it being cloudy nearly all day.

Well there's no reason in theory one day should be 3-4C below and another 3-4C above, especially when there are uncertainties about cloud amounts and shower activity. 

Wednesdays vs verses Friday uppers are generally 3C different, 12C today in London, 15C on Friday not sure that equates to an 6-8C surface differnce. Again with PT's reducing on Friday its likely maxima will be no later than 1-2pm compared to the usual 3-5pm.

EDIT - Looks as though high cloud is generally limited temperatures across the south east. 

Edited by Alderc
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GFS has had maximum temperatures several degrees too low all summer, so may well do again for Thursday and Friday. Today is the only day where it might be close to accurate.

Personally I’d rather there was no cooler/wetter blip, but I guess I can’t begrudge some needed rain for the farmers and a respite for those who suffer in the heat.

Edited by MattStoke
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1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well there's no reason in theory one day should be 3-4C below and another 3-4C above, especially when there are uncertainties about cloud amounts and shower activity. 

Wednesdays vs verses Friday uppers are generally 3C different, 12C today in London, 15C on Friday not sure that equates to an 6-8C surface differnce. Again with PT's reducing on Friday its likely maxima will be no later than 1-2pm compared to the usual 3-5pm.

EDIT - Looks as though high cloud is generally limited temperatures across the south east. 

Well in theory there is no reason why today should be 3-4C lower at all - there is a lot of high cloud around but I wouldn't have thought that would have much impact. We'll just have to wait and see. Remember, on 1 July 2015 it was already 34C at Heathrow before 12pm.

Edited by cheese
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Whether many places in the north hit 30C tomorrow will depend somewhat on whether the GFS or BBC are correct. GFS breaks out the storms. 

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(assuming no rush to 30C by Midday)

Edited by summer blizzard
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