Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[shaky]

That is some difference for friday on ukmo and gfs!!extreme heat for central and eastern parts of england on the ukmo where as the gfs gives high twenties which is still hot but not as extreme!!which run is gona be right i wonder!!ukmo still looks pretty darn good for england at least for the weekend with maybe mid to high twenties continuing so still hot!!

[Captain Shortwave]

The weekend becoming very messy, the GFS keeps churning out very clean runs in terms of pushing the heat away and throws a fairly deep depression towards the UK over the weekend. The UKMO on the other hand disrupts the trough sufficiently to slow the cold front down so that it is still crawling across East Anglia on Saturday whilst the GFS at that point has the whole of the UK in a fresher (if still warm) westerly airstream.

UKMO/GFS

   

   

Oddly enough it is debatable that the Atlantic air ever really makes it across the the east with a slack complex surface pattern developing and it really very warm and humid with temperatures rising again on Monday. The GEM is even more extreme and develops a low over the south of the UK and cooler conditions.

Just to note - The GFS gives a maximum of 32C on Friday (In comparision to 31C on Thursday), you could still add a degree or so to the actual maxima.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

Wow 33-36c 91-97f across the SE / East Anglia on Friday according to the Gem 12z ..likely to be some very big thunderstorms on Friday...and to think, there could potentially be record breaking heat during August with the words very hot again mentioned in today's update!☺ 

 

[SMU]

GFS 192 beginning to smell the coffee for the August heatwave....

20c pushing North out of spain !!

Look at that furnace of heat over SW / southern Europe

Edited July 24, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Rob K]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow 33-36c 91-97f across the SE / East Anglia on Friday according to the Gem 12z ..likely to be some very big thunderstorms on Friday...and to think, there could potentially be record breaking heat during August with the words very hot again mentioned in today's update!☺ 

But by next Tuesday GEM has afternoon temps of just 13C-20C across the south!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Rob K said:

But by next Tuesday GEM has afternoon temps of just 13C-20C across the south!

Monday 19 degrees too on GFS, but improvement on 00Z and 06Z

Edited July 24, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Guest]

From an NIMBY POV I don't like GEM or GFS, both produce the coolest daytime max down here in weeks early next week. 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Rob K said:

But by next Tuesday GEM has afternoon temps of just 13C-20C across the south!

A cooler fresher interlude would be welcome after heat like 36c surely?☺

Anyway, great model watching, potentially a very explosive end to the current heatwave on Friday which is affecting the s / e / se.. a fresher blip this weekend and then hopefully the heat returning during next week.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

I agree with Steve above, the heat building to the south is exceptional, it no longer requires a direct hit to impinge the UK.  Take GEM 12z for example, here's the T850s at the end of the run, bubbling under you might say:

Have to say, the middle of this run looked dodgy to me, so no guarantee at all we end up here, but it would certainly pump up the heat next few days from this chart. Still think 5 August will be the day, we'll see!

GFS at same time:

Reservoir of heat there. And it will hit us in the end.  Maybe even the rest of this run!

[shaky]

And here comes the furnace from the south at 264 hours!!extreme heat on the way on this run from the continent!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A cooler fresher interlude would be welcome after heat like 36c surely?☺

Anyway, great model watching, potentially a very explosive end to the current heatwave on Friday which is affecting the s / e / se.. a fresher blip this weekend and then hopefully the heat returning during next week.

certainly would be welcome, but depends on meaning of 'fresher' GFS shown some horror charts for my location, max under 20 degrees, wet and windy Sun/mon

fresher I want is dry, sunny and around 24 degrees, not persistent rain

[Guest]

The heat does indeed hit us. Mid to high 30s a dead cert on this run... #scorchio

   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

And here comes the furnace from the south at 264 hours!!extreme heat on the way on this run from the continent!!

Certainly not wrong there shaky! 

[Djdazzle]

Usual caveat applies. Quite a few runs have shown extreme heat, but never before T240. So Friday 3rd August / Saturday 4th August. Let’s see if subsequent runs maintain that timescale. The buillding blocks are all present. Doesn’t mean it will happen though.

[tight isobar]

We need to keep an, eye on dynamics for the weekend phase-due to mass complexities.

On the note of latter prognosis the one snapshot ..i think sums up...

Blip>then heat...and like a broken record..its very feasible that summer has the most notable yet in store!!

[Frosty.]

August could be fun according to the Gfs 12z!

[mushymanrob]

 the problem with the gfs is that it brings the atlantic trough much closer towards us then the noaa anomaly charts do. they keep it well out nearer the azores. so im not buying the gfs's version of affairs, pressure will rise after this weekend to our east, the atlantic low is expected to weaken, but be centered further west.

this would suggest that the run of hot southerly sourced air will not be a 24-48 hour wonder, but could last longer.

[cheese]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Certainly not wrong there shaky! 

850 temps of 17-18C, high pressure, yet a max temp on that chart of only 25C here, same as today. I wonder what the reasoning behind that is.

Edited July 24, 2018 by cheese

[Captain Shortwave]

Shorter term, Thursday looks very hot with 30C reached across most of England

The arpege goes a little nuts creating a heat low over the centre of the country sparking off thunderstorms, general consensus keeps these very isolated during daylight hours on Thursday so I suspect 90F will be reached widely with 34C (Perhaps 35C) reached across the south east. This model shows a 36C in the far east of East Anglia on Friday, but again showers develop across many central and eastern parts of the UK which keep temperatures down.

Worth noting that temperatures will reach and potentially surpass 100F across Belgium and Holland on Friday. That is some serious heat and not very far from us. Actually Friday looks like a real nightmare to forecast purely for the potentially dangerous conditions from either extreme heat or torrential thunderstorms and the fact that neither could occur as well.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[feb1991blizzard]

Never mind all this heat, lets have some more of this, lets hope we carry on where we left off at the end of last winter.

[Guest Delete Me]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Never mind all this heat, lets have some more of this, lets hope we carry on where we left off at the end of last winter.

Jump straight from the furnace into the freezer maybe?

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Jump straight from the furnace into the freezer maybe?

I recommend straight into the bin instead......

[tight isobar]

On a more earmarked note; against the grain of hyping things in the winter..the opposite jumps in here.

On a global frontal -its notable to see that even the jet dipping and diving on a raw scale...will oddly on this occasion 'very likey' aid convection of heat into the uk...the heat ball is such of that ..'that' even the given profile(jet) into August would usually mean typical summer fayre..however on what is a unusual scenario/scenario's..the given hit is a liable for big heat infusion!!

The iberian-and' continental heat fuse just add fuel to the fire...(pun intended)..

And the equitorial mass of hp-dominance..and that of want to make'constant' inroads to deep northern hem-lattitudes..is going to be one demon to breakdown.

The notion of it being any hotter than of late..with the persistance seems crazy....

However...it clearly is'nt!!!!

Edited July 24, 2018 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Ecm agrees with ukmo again and higher 850s are further west for friday!!gota now feel gfs is the odd one out!!

[SMU]

Hottest GFS ens P7 brings 20c line up close to Scotland

Would be a record breaker...