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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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The Gem 12z builds to a very hot climax on Friday across the SE quarter with 33c 91f and potential for the mid 30's c in the very hottest spots such as Heathrow airport 😉and very warm for many other areas too.🌡️🔥🙂

123_uk2mtmp.png

123_mslp850.png

b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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GFS lala land shows 37C for the south east for the 3rd of August

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I bagsy this chart. 🔥 Shades of early August 1990 for this part of the world.

uKdRvH_bTXeZHaXRofHHLg.png

Edited by cheese

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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I bagsy this chart. 🔥 Shades of early August 1990 for this part of the world.

uKdRvH_bTXeZHaXRofHHLg.png

Funny really it was showing that this week/next weekend a few days ago. Now it’s the week after.....

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Funny really it was showing that this week/next weekend a few days ago. Now it’s the week after.....

It definitely wasn't showing 34C in Yorkshire. 

In any case, it almost certainly won't happen but I'm keeping my fingers and toes crossed. 28 years since we broke our record high, and that's 28 years too long in this warming climate. It's bound to happen sooner or later.

Edited by cheese

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Ok..it's FI but the Gfs 12z operational is really just showing the maximum potential from an almost identical pattern to what we will have during the week ahead further s / se.. very exciting times we are in this summer..and the rinse and repeat continues at the end..what a summer..don't want it to end!☺😀

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_ukthickness850.png

12_288_ukcape.png

12_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Funny really it was showing that this week/next weekend a few days ago. Now it’s the week after.....

On one extreme run, oddly the evolution was in the right ballpark but with the ridge far too west. Still if the UKMO is correct we could see temperatures hit the mid-thirties on Friday and only a shade lower on Thursday.

The arpege for Thursday

arpegeuk-41-99-0.png?22-18

33/34C across the south east, ties in with the metoffice forecasts too. The arpege evolution is similar to the UKMO out to the end of its run (Though you have to bring up the UK view on meteociel). 

Not record breaking, but it puts some parts of the UK into the very hot category. The risk looks like persisting well into August with the longwave pattern looking very slow moving or almost stuck. I must admit I do feel for those east of us who could be in for a prolonged and potentially severe heatwave with this stretching quite far north into Scandinavia.

The GEFs, well the ridge does seem to want to back west into the start of August. Very very omminous.....

gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Yes UKMO Maxima already 34c both Thurs & Fri now

2A77B423-37EA-4584-B84A-594AEF6052F9.thumb.png.b62da881592683265f287510018c97ab.png

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes UKMO Maxima already 34c both Thurs & Fri now

2A77B423-37EA-4584-B84A-594AEF6052F9.thumb.png.b62da881592683265f287510018c97ab.png

Its showing 30C for Manchester. So surely its wrong.

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Could really do with the heat lasting into the weekend as jet skiing, beach bbqing and water parking. Peoples thoughts? I would assume we could 6-10c cooler than Thursday/Friday? 

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5 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Its showing 30C for Manchester. So surely its wrong.

I thought that 30C was for Birmingham.

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5 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Its showing 30C for Manchester. So surely its wrong.

I think that 30C is for Birmingham.

edit, beaten to it. Erm... models, plume, heat, blah blah 

Edited by Liima

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My local forecast from the MetOffice is only pushing 26/27C max for Thursday/Friday not 30C, so some wires crossed somewhere surely.

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ECM looking good to bring some fresher cooler temps in to the UK from Sat onwards. GFS not dissimilar. FI yes but not at far reaches. Only worry is that the ridge would be waiting in the wings to build back in.

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I guess whilst we have been thinking more about the conditions over the UK, perhaps we need to look further away to see the real scope of what is going to develop later this week and beyond.

ECH1-120.GIF?22-0   ECH1-144.GIF?22-0  ECH1-168.GIF?22-0

The ridge to our east is truly spectacular, unlike some of the patterns we have seen with heights to our east/north east, none of them had such a vast supply of heat being pulled up from north Africa and the Middle east, we will see the 16C isotherm push beyond the north coast of Scandinavia and pushing pretty close to Svalbard. 

I don't know how often this kind of set up occurs, but this must be pretty rare and the ramifications down the line must be quite big, I guess a case of looking in awe or perhaps worry despite what the conditions are over the UK.

As for the ECM, a little bit further east than the UKMO but actually the evolution to day 7 is the same with a thundery low perilously close to the east of the UK over the weekend. Still probably hitting around 33C by the end of this week. 

...And yes cooler air does push in over the weekend, though again the caveat here is still above average temperatures (Low twenties north and mid/high twenties south).

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Well what a finish to the Ecm 12z..fantastic!..actually it's a predominantly hot run for southern / south eastern areas..this wonderful summer pattern continues!☺😃🔥🔥🔥very warm, hot, very hot, a bit fresher then hot again sums this run up in a nutshell!!😁

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thick.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Amazing patterns showing up into August - as others have said, that block is so monumental to the east it’s going to be hard to just wipe it out.

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My timescale of interest is still the 3-5 August. So many model runs have this as a major plume fest. It has to be watched.  GFS 12z parallel, has this as T300:

image.thumb.jpg.8f8dec6ca8710cbe7038689bb7b58a0c.jpg

Just WOW! 

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Be glad to see the back of this tbh. Haven’t got anywhere near temps in NI in the mid twenties and no sign either. Some charts showing 20c of a difference in temp this weekend between NI and SE of England. Was a great summer until about 2 weeks ago. Since then more changeable and temps high teens / 21 at best.

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I think the systems to the west are been still overplayed considering the extreme nature of the high to the east. The models dont often deal with such a set up and think the low out to the northwest will diminish more in the coming days. Look how last week unfolded, certainly nothing how it was been modelled days before the event. Baby steps in the coming days to push things more west i think..

Edited by Snowjokes92

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1 hour ago, cheese said:

I bagsy this chart. 🔥 Shades of early August 1990 for this part of the world.

uKdRvH_bTXeZHaXRofHHLg.png

I'll take the 06z version 😉

ukmaxtemp.png

(Purely for meteorological interest/rareness rather than the effect on the elderly etc).

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Cooler and more changeable is on the way folks....Just ready for a wet August!

RACKE.png

RACKEX.png

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