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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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The GFS doing the modern thing of compacted all of its hot outliers into one ridiculous low resolution run.

gfs-0-300.png?6   gfs-1-300.png?6

Because it is perfectly sensible for the 20C isotherm to reach Scotland!!!

Right back to more sensible discussion, again further ahead it looks like any breakdown from the west will struggle to fully cross the UK completely so it isn't unfeasible that southern and eastern areas will remain fine and at least very warm. So we will see a front try and cross the UK during Friday and likely we will see a more widespread fine weekend as a ridge builds across the UK behind this weeks main trough.

EDM1-144.GIF?22-12   EDM1-168.GIF?22-12

Beyond this, to be honest I can only see one outcome and as shown on the GFS (in an extreme manner), this outcome is another attempt to push heat northwards from Spain and France with the UK remaining on the boundary between the huge ridge over the continent and the Atlantic trough.

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GFS once again showing the potential for further hot/very hot conditions further ahead. Even if we see a more settled and less hot blip late next week, which those in the south and east might not, and even if it is overdoing any potential plume.

78BC1894-F04F-45E4-B44C-3064E84B3D07.png

Edited by MattStoke

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If the 6z verifies the 40C barrier is being broken. Ensembles showing amazing agreement for a plume around 3rd/4th/5th August although I think the 6z is the absolute peak scenario 

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3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

If the 6z verifies the 40C barrier is being broken. Ensembles showing amazing agreement for a plume around 3rd/4th/5th August although I think the 6z is the absolute peak scenario 

I agree but it’s  so far away at the moment. The models can’t even agree on the end of this week yet!

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean still looks progressive by day 10 with cooler atlantic air making inroads and the warmest / hottest air shunted away eastwards but the week ahead looks hot further s / e / se and may last longer than this mean suggests longer term.🙂

EDM0-240.GIF

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I personally see the overall trend as we head towards August to be one for the heat over more southern and eastern parts of the UK to spread back to the rest of the British Isles. At the moment August looks to me like seeing a gradual strengthening of High pressure on the whole with more widespread heat as a result. The hottest part of summer I think is yet to come!

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Not only does the latest GFS shows impressive heat but looks like an impressive breakdown could follow, especially for the West. High Cape and heavy precip

image.thumb.png.8144d9bff589758993070cb654e2e33a.png

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

feasible ! :)

 

roast 2.png

814day.03 roast.gif

Yes, likely to occur ?, a prob 40% I would say at the moment

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Aug 03rd on GFS 06z reminds me of that very day in 1990 which saw the 37C Cheltenham record.  Nice to see ensembles showing more support for a heat wave as we head into Aug.  Fingers crossed this upgrades into a 7 day spell instead of a 2/3 day spell.

 

plume.png

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long way to go yet till we can be certain what's going to happen by the weekend,the low is going to cause major headache for the models as it interacts with the developing blocking high,fascinating watching how this will pan out.

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52 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

long way to go yet till we can be certain what's going to happen by the weekend,the low is going to cause major headache for the models as it interacts with the developing blocking high,fascinating watching how this will pan out.

Indeed - I’m still not ruling out an outcome that sees the trough far enough west and the secondary low moving in such a way that a ridge builds sufficiently strongly ahead of it to prevent so much hot air heading toward Norway and instead direct that across the UK.

Far from favoured by current modelling, but feasible based on similar historical events.

First week of August has the much higher chance. Odd to see so many EPS members freshening things up instead - but I’ve noticed ECM handling the current eastward propagating MJO very poorly (as usual - it’s worse than GFS when it comes to that!) which makes the difference between a more Nina-like trough movement close to the northwest of the UK (stalled MJO that ECM shows) and a Nino-like stall out west with a continental flow favoured for SE UK in particular (propagating MJO that’s instead being observed).

So unless the MJO suddenly falls in line with the ECM/EPS projections, they will soon be changing their tune toward something more like the GFS 06z of today or 18z of yesterday (for example) but with much variability in imported heat, of course.

Edited by Singularity
There’s always one latter... ;)

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2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Yes, likely to occur ?, a prob 40% I would say at the moment

Ill take that % at that timeframe lol

Ok, im not expecting that to vetify in full, but something similar would be just as welcome . Im liking the potential though.

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So as we await the 12s, the GFS paralell 6z is reinforcing the idea of real heat around the 5th August, my money is still on this date being the hottest of 2018.

image.thumb.jpg.52894a4c4018db5fb57a724f6e8295ac.jpg

Records broken? Too soon to tell, but fascinating model watching.

Edit, the red beast is still nibbling at the UK at the end of the run what on earth is going on? 

image.thumb.jpg.9fe5d295041e3abacbe174ff6f60951b.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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UKMO tonight puts the UK in a bit of a col, neither nowt or summat you  might say, here T144

image.thumb.jpg.af1b1454419a2f0caebae459daead9d8.jpg

let's see what the other models say!

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UKMO brings in uppers of 18 @850 into the SE during Friday.

Suggestive of temps into the low 30s?

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Hot end to the working week from the UKMO. Where as the GFS shunts the heat away eastward.

UW120-7_ywh3.GIF

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UKMO and GFS keep Friday very hot in the SE at least. Slight westward correction of the LP makes a big difference.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO brings in uppers of 18 @850 into the SE during Friday.

Suggestive of temps into the low 30s?

Indeed, some very hot weather for the E /SE on the ukmo 12z..sustained heat during the week ahead in the low 30's celsius range but even away from the hot zone it still looks very warm / feeling hot in the strong July sunshine away from the far w / nw.☺

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Gfs has mid to high twenties widely throughout the week so still hot but not extreme!!ukmo on the other hand brings that plume back further west again and gets really hot across central.and eastern england on friday!!happy with both outputs to be fair!!

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, some very hot weather for the E /SE on the ukmo 12z..sustained heat during the week ahead in the low 30's celsius range but even away from the hot zone it still looks very warm / feeling hot in the strong July sunshine away from the far w / nw.☺

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

Still think 35C is possible with those charts.

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